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Thoughts on this one?

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  • Thoughts on this one?

    25nl 6-max zone hand

    Effective stacks $30

    I open K5 of diamonds to .75 from the cutoff. button calls, blinds fold.

    flop comes 9-5-5. I bet 1.61, button calls

    Turn is an ace. I bet 1.00. My thinking is I don't want to lose pocket pairs, and my small bet might look weak and hopefully induce a raise. Button does raise to $5. I call. Once this raise comes I'm obviously never folding, but I want to limit the potential loss while also letting him do the betting. Either I'm beat and lose the minimum, or I still win a nice pot if he's value betting a worse 5. Sorta like a happy medium. Is this bad logic?
    River is a 10. Final board is 9-5-5-A-10 with no flush possible. I check and my opponent fires $11.50. Originally I was going to include villain's hand but I'd rather not reveal it just yet.
    So is there merit to raising. Obviously we "can't" fold, which means we expect to be good a decent amount of the time. And, of we expect to be good, should the river be a check-jam? Should the turn? Let me know what you think.

  • #2
    No, you should never raise the river here, yes you are good a decent amount of the time but if you're called when you jam and get called you are not good very often here.
    Last edited by jamtay317; 11-06-2019, 10:48 AM.


    • #3
      I’d fold pre unless I was at a very soft table. Our charts have us opening K7 as our worst suited K with an ante. In a cash game I might fold K8s.

      Once you open and get called your flop bet is too big IMO, would you want to bet pot with other parts of your range?

      Turn seems like the better time to size up. Once you get raised I think I like reraising. I do think your logic is bad in terms of trying to minimize losses. He never has AA, sometimes has 99, always has A5 and 95s, but you beat the other fives plus his bluffs and overvalues.

      You’re ahead more than you’re behind and I think you’re more likely to get paid now than the river.

      River decision is closer. He has between 9 and 15 combos of hands you lose to. Does he play enough offsuit 5x to give enough combos you beat?


      • #4
        There are not many worse 5's villain can have. All of them would be suited, so max is 9 combos (but I figure several of those fold preflop). So not sure about that part of your thought process.

        I would eliminate AA from his range. I expect that raises preflop. Also TT shouldn't be in his range (why raise that when the A hits on turn).

        So villain's hands that beat you are 99 (3) and A5s (1). I don't think BTN calls with A5o, but lets say he does so add another 2 combos. Would help to know the suits on the board to see if we can eliminate 95s & T5s (for now, I am excluding figuring that balances A5o).

        Raising on the river for me boils down to if Villain would overvalue an A here and call. If you think he does, raise and get it in there. If you think he doesn't, then just call.


        • #5
          Don't like how u think through that turn .... even for $.10/ $.25 , think you will find yourself at the worse end alot ..

          someone ruled out AA ... even for $.10/$.25 , I wouldn't. Given the action, doesn't look like you have a winner.

          You ask if there is merit in raising , what do you think he got ? you have 555AK , the other guy's blind ?

          On the river, why obviously can't fold ?

          A hand I recently played ... I raise 3x from utg with JJ ... folded to big blind who flat. ( both playing 150BB ) I chk behind Q85 . Turn : Q

          BB leads 3/4 pot , I call. ( no flush draw on board ) River: J

          BB bets 900 into 1000. I pushed 8800. He called off Q7s.

          I don't think he had to call there.
          Last edited by CrazyEddie; 11-06-2019, 12:05 PM.


          • #6
            We can't fold because we beat all his bluffs and some of his value range. Certainly 65 suited, 75 suited, 54 suited, plays this way. We're also really under-repped. Plus maybe AK that floated flop, not to mention villain's exact holding, which was Ace 9. And if we're really lucky maybe he is blind. Just maybe.
            Maybe that's what skewed my perception of this hand, knowing his exact hand feels like I left money on the table.
            Also you guys must've forgot, zone poker is anonymous so it's hard to make plays based on reads. One benefit though is the games play pretty tight preflop since you can zip to another hand instantly. I've found waiting a few seconds before raising results in even more fold, so I don't think opening K5 sited from the cutoff is outrageous by any means.


            • kkep
              kkep commented
              Editing a comment
              I would have just called river too. But I don't think you were under-repped, you bet pot or slightly more on flop. I think you were lucky to extract as much as you did.

              just my .02

          • #7
            Thanks kkep, I appreciate your feedback. Trying to get better every day!