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What do you do on the river here?

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  • What do you do on the river here?

    Ignition - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    UTG: 143.2 BB
    Hero (CO): 112.2 BB
    BTN: 112.2 BB
    SB: 104 BB
    BB: 254 BB

    SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

    Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J:diamond: J:heart:

    fold, Hero raises to 3.4 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 2.4 BB

    Flop: (7.2 BB, 2 players) 6:heart: J:spade: 5:diamond:
    BB checks, Hero bets 2.6 BB, BB calls 2.6 BB

    Turn: (12.4 BB, 2 players) 3:heart:
    BB checks, Hero bets 8 BB, BB calls 8 BB

    River: (28.4 BB, 2 players) 4:heart:
    BB checks, Hero??
    Last edited by jamtay317; 11-02-2019, 09:49 AM.

  • #2
    I would check behind or bet really small, like 5BB and fold to a c/r.


    • #3
      Agree w/ kkep. Check or go for thin value and fold if x/r. Depends on villain player type or stats if you have them.

      (Also recommend hiding villains hand to get cleaner feedback)


      • #4
        Check. 1) You block JX hard which is the main hand you'd expect to get thin value from, 2) giving away the pot to a bluff raise would be a huge disaster, and 3) I guarantee you that if he raises all-in some part of you would be tempted to think that it's "obviously a bluff" and want to call for potentially an even bigger disaster. I'm all for going for thin value on rivers, but this isn't the spot for it IMO.


        • kkep
          kkep commented
          Editing a comment
          It's definitely razor thin but I think he might have more Jx combos than you may think. It could easily be between 20-25 including a set of 4's. Might also find some hero calls with A6 88 99.

          I'm not worried about the average player throwing a c/r bluff at me here very often at all so that would be an easy fold for me to make.
          I mean what missed that they called down with? I feel like the better players will be getting after this on the flop or turn.

        • MrFuss
          MrFuss commented
          Editing a comment
          Im only betting the river against weak, passive calling station type players. Against an aggressive thinking player Im checking every time. The majority of the player pool is never x/r bluffing the river so you can bet small for value and fold if raised.

      • #5
        I see the merits to checking. Reeeeeeper's point about block a ton of the calling hands is very valid.

        Live if the guy checks to me I'm going for thin value knowing I can take a very exploitative bet fold line against most players. No idea if players bluff the river more often at these stakes online.


        • #6
          I don't disagree with him. I think it's close


          • #7
            Originally posted by RealJPB View Post
            No idea if players bluff the river more often at these stakes online.
            I watched a database review video recently from a training site specialising in micro-stakes in which the coach focussed on river raises and check-raises.

            Basically the number he found was so small it was bordering on negligible. Yes, there will always be the occasional bluff here or there from players who are studying hard and on the up, but generally speaking it was always incredibly value heavy.


            • #8
              I agree with checking. Four to a straight and three to a flush. Unfortunately the nuts on the flop shrunk to a marginal hand by the river. He might not call anything you beat, and certainly will call anything that does beat you. I just don't see enough merit in betting here.


              • #9
                Remember we are playing our range and not our hand so we should have some bluffs on the river too which means we force the V to defend correctly or be run over.

                Some of the nut hands I think the V can have on the river.

                Ah7h Ah5h 7h5h 5h2h Kh7h Kh5h Qh7h Qh5h Jh7h - JhTh Th7h Th5h 9h5h 8h5h. (maybe KhJh QhJh) 16 - 18 combos, of those 4 are good enough to check raise for pure value and maybe they use some of the K and Q high flushes too but that's still only 4-6 more combos.

                Now what combo's beat us that will likely only call and never check raise (we have plenty of flushes in out range) A7o 77 73s 32s 22 Non Heart K7s Q7s J7s T7s (42 combos)

                What are some of the combos we can still get value from - KJo QJo (if they don't 3 bet KJs QJs pre they have the non heart suited combos here too) J6s J4s JT J9o 99 88 86s 64s 63s 53s 44 33 that is 69 combos of value. Depending on how much of a calling station they are they still have about 40 more combos they can choose to make hero calls with.

                I have the V getting to the river with 201 combos. In order to correctly defend a 5BB bet they have to call with roughly 80 - 85% I'm estimating that is about 160 combos.
                Of those 160, 60 beat us. 100 lose to our exact hand and they will likely fall far short of the MDF only defending with about 112 combos.

                If we aren't going for value with the top of our range and never bluffing (we aren't going to have more than a few but we should have some) then what are we doing? We have plenty of flushes, we have straights, we have sets, we have over pairs we have top pair. So we can put the V in a miserable spot far more often then they will turn the table on us.

                We lose to about 40% of the V's range when we add in some bluffs for ourselves (35% if we have zero bluffs) - KJ sdc etc go to the Bluff Catcher we beat range (24 combos).

                There are 12 that go from nutted to the range we lose to if they call like K7 sdc etc.

                Our betting range ( I added 6 bluff combos) vs V's entire range I have us at 61% -39%. I think that's a pretty nice edge to go for some value.

                Board: 5d6hJs3h4h

                Equity Win Tie
                CO 60.71% 60.30% 0.41% { JJ+, 88, 66-55, AJs, KJs, QJs, 97s, 87s, 65s, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, Ah9h, Kh9h, Qh9h, Th9h, Ah8h, Kh8h, Qh8h, Th8h, 9h8h, Ah7h, Kh7h, Ah2h, AJo, KJo, AhKd, AhKs, AhKc, AhQd, AhQs, AhQc, KdQh, KhQd, KhQs, KhQc, KsQh, KcQh }

                BB 39.29% 38.88% 0.41% { 99-77, 44-22, A7s-A4s, KJs, K7s-K4s, QJs, Q7s-Q5s, J6s+, J4s, T7s-T5s, 96s-95s, 86s-85s, 75s, 73s, 64s-63s, 53s, 32s, A7o-A4o, KJo, QJo, J9o+ }

                Our exact hand is 66%

                Board: 5d6hJs3h4h
                Equity Win Tie
                CO 65.85% 65.85% 0.00% { JdJh }
                BB 34.15% 34.15% 0.00% { 99-77, 44-22, A7s-A4s, KJs, K7s-K4s, QJs, Q7s-Q5s, J6s+, J4s, T7s-T5s, 96s-95s, 86s-85s, 75s, 73s, 64s-63s, 53s, 32s, A7o-A4o, KJo, QJo, J9o+ }

                V's river range. Of course if they never c/r draws or premium hands when they should this could be much nuttier. But I think the average to good player will do that enough to make this reasonable. MDF our is the bare minimum I think they will or at least should defend with. To defend to the MDF we need to find 15 or so combos from the gray range and move them to the gold range.