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  • math behind

    to bet 25-30% potsize on Flop and 60-65% potsize on turn

    what is the math behind ?

    I See this betting pattern a lot on pokerstars on bigger buyins

    i would Guess on Flop villian misses 65% of the Time often and with such a small bet he is almost Forced to stay in with all sorts of junk .

    when you bet bigger on turn this is the Main decision point for villian . he still has missed a lot of marginal draws or has a marginal Made Hand (otherwise often he would have raised on a certain point before ) he pays Mostly too much for a marginal draw (8-9outer) or even for the marginal Made Hand (Because this is very vulnerable, he can either lose vs a draw later or Top pair )

    when I bet 66 %potsize this Needs to work roughly 40 percent of the Time, so villian has to defend 60 percent of the Time, so to such a quite large bet a lot of villians will fold at least 50 % of the Time in a lot of spots ; so we are printing Money right ?

    thoughts ?
    Last edited by Guido; 10-31-2019, 01:00 AM.

  • #2
    If you check out the 'Information Dominance' video you'll see that Ed Miller likes to bet smallish on flop and turn, then bet bigger on the river when he has more info on his opponent's hand/range. After doing all the quizzes it's obvious that JL does much the same thing. Alex Fitzgerald however likes to bet large on the turn, but I think Ed and JL are much better players myself so I follow their advice.


    • #3
      Alot of people are doing what others are doing ... equities are too close .. unless you have your own thing. math is for suckers.

      for mtt anyway .... one of the most ridiculous thing ' if you always get it in as 70% favorite , you will find the chips coming to you quickly... '

      Last edited by CrazyEddie; 10-31-2019, 05:28 AM.


      • #4
        Originally posted by CrazyEddie View Post
        math is for suckers.
        Are you being sarcastic or serious?


        • MrFuss
          MrFuss commented
          Editing a comment
          I think he's being serious. I dont understand most of Eddie's posts or comments.

        • CrazyEddie
          CrazyEddie commented
          Editing a comment
          play heads up... serious, anyone ? I'm interested in seeing your math in action
          Last edited by CrazyEddie; 10-31-2019, 10:32 AM.

      • #5
        Matt's BB vs UTG webinar last night was really good and discusses this topic. You should definitely check it out once it's posted.