Difficult spot in SB w/ QQ facing action 10NL

[MrFuss]

$0.10 NL - 8 players


MP+1 (MP+1): 95 BB
CO (CO): 100 BB
BTN (BTN): 234.4 BB
Hero (SB): 163.9 BB
BB (BB): 93 BB
UTG (UTG): 100 BB
UTG+1 (UTG+1): 205.3 BB
MP (MP): 104.2 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Dealt to Hero: QhQc

UTG raises to 3.5 BB, UTG+1 calls 3.5 BB, BTN raises to 15 BB, Hero calls 14.5 BB, UTG calls 11.5 BB

Flop (49.5 BB, 3 players): 5h5c3h

Hero checks, UTG checks, BTN bets 35 BB, Hero calls 35 BB

Turn (119.5 BB, 2 players): Kc

Hero checks, BTN bets 45 BB, Hero?
________________________________


BTN is a good LAG reg. 27/21/8 w/ 5k hands.

[jamtay317]

Why are you not 4 betting preflop?

[MrFuss]

Maybe Im giving players too much credit. UTG pots it and UTG +1 calls. They must have strong ranges and then BTN makes a big 3bet. I only have 300 hands on UTG and +1 so Im assuming they're solid. We're also pretty deep. UTG is 100bb but im effective after that w/ 164bb.

I used most of my time to make this decision. It was not easy.

[Bentley]

If he's a lag the I'm raising this preflop especially oop.
i think you have to call turn but if you know he's 3 barreling on river you could maybe put a blocking bet in.

[1Peter510]

I don't like 4betting when the BTN (who has a reasonable 3bet stat) 3bets an UTG open. Making it worse is that there was a caller to UTG open so the 3bet is larger than normal. A pot size 4 bet would be to 53bb which commits us to the pot (if BTN jams our pot odds would be 33% and getting 38% equity against KK+, AK).

I like the call preflop. I like the call on the flop. Don't see folding an overpair when you are only behind AA & KK and don't need much protection.

BTN showed a lot of strength on the flop, and now continues betting when the K hits (even though he is betting small). I'm not sure if that is a stronger made hand trying to get value from exactly 66-QQ or if that is a marginal hand trying to rep a K. I guess, if he has turned 77-JJ into a bluff, good for him. I think you fold the turn unless you have stats indicating he bluffs a lot.

[MrFuss]

Thanks for your input

[kkep]

I don't 4-bet pre-flop there either. HU vs this V on the button I wouldn't mind playing for stacks tho.

[MrFuss]

kkep totally agree. If BTN opens here im trying to get it in.

[jamtay317]

I am going to review this hand with Flopzilla. I have not done it yet, and I may be totally wrong here, but I do not like folding the turn. you're getting 5:1 on your money and yes the K came but there is no reason to suspect that he has a K. he may have AA,KK but he also may have TT,JJ,QQ, flush draws straight draws that is just owning you with position. Yes, you have a marginal made hand right now. but I am sure you're winning 20% of the time.

I gave the BTN a polar range here as that is what I think he is doing by 3-betting into a 2 opponents.

maybe on the flop something like:


now the Kof clubs comes and he bets 45BB into 120 you need 21% equity
and in my opinion, you have 50%


I personally think that you should check-call the turn. and see what the river is.

[kkep]

1Peter510 there is a feature that allows us to import our own ranges. You can try that but I don't know if it will work the way you want it to or not. You can select suites easily in equilab.

[kkep]

1Peter510 expand (enlarge) the window down and you will see suit selection

[MrFuss]

click the arrow icon in between the menu and prebuilt ranges

[MrFuss]

I grabbed some more relevant stats on BTN.
3bet vs EP 2bet: 7.43
PF squeeze: 7.48
Cbet in 3bet pot F:90 T:69 R:69

[kkep]

Using Peter's suggestions and based on the stats the V seems a bit loose -


Flop



Turn



BU 51.44% 50.02% 1.42% { QQ+, AKs, A5s, KQs, 76s, AhQh, AhJh, AKo }
SB 48.56% 47.14% 1.42% { QhQc }


I would suggest he is playing more honestly on the turn - Interestingly, if we remove A5s from his range our equity actually goes down by 2.6%.
How is that possible?

Equity Win Tie
BU 53.92% 53.68% 0.24% { KK+, AKs, A5s, KQs, AhQh, AhJh, 7h6h, AKo }
SB 46.08% 45.85% 0.24% { QhQc }

[MrFuss]

In play I thought this board nailed BTN value and bluffing range. If I call the turn the pot is 200bb w/ 115bb behind and Im committed no matter what card comes. I thought all 3 actions from BTN was very strong and shipping 170bb w/ QQ feeling marginal did not seem like the best play.

[kkep]

I get it. I tend to not fold to the first scary card tho. I think another call here puts the V in a tough spot with his bluffs on the river.
That said there are players I presume will decide I can get sticky with under pairs and barrel again. I hate those players!

BUT since joining this site I do find myself calling a lot more often as we have been taught to do with the top of our range.

If I'm going to give up on this turn it would be because I believe the V is rarely if ever bluffing.

Also there is no rule that says we have to punt off 115BB bc we are 'pot committed' If the obvious draw comes in, the flush or an Ace hits and we check then he rips it in I don't think there is anything wrong with giving up. Oh and if he isn't drawing to the flush a H might shut him down allowing us to realize our full equity as well.

Conversely we will be in those spots with the nuts sometimes when we play our ranges correctly....

[MrFuss]

"BUT since joining this site I do find myself calling a lot more often as we have been taught to do with the top of our range."
Same. I've become somewhat of a calling station (not sure where that came from lol) and am currently trying to work on my F vs Cbet frequency. Right now im 51/35/30

[MrFuss]

Holding both Qc and Qh seems very relevant because we block some of BTNs bluffing combos like AQ with FD

[kkep]

I don't necessarily disagree with anything you have said. Folding might just be the optimal play and I don't think anyone would suggest it's a snap call on the turn either.

[kkep]

I missed the Qh on the flop but that was only 1 draw combo. I did remove it on the turn tho

[1Peter510]

This kind of post with discussion is exactly what I have been looking for in the forum. I like the debate. Will run through flopzilla myself with some of the new numbers later....

[kkep]

CrazyEddie I thought it was a shitty comment too. I saw a block option somewhere and when I find that's what I'll do.
I've been patient long enough.

[CrazyEddie]

why , why not do it already ? why post ? what is derogatory ???? causing u cry so much.... u don't like my comments, don't read them.

[MrFuss]

Eddie, if anyone has to explain why "no discussion here .. only passive players patting each other on the back" is a nasty comment then it's simply not worth explaining. kkep lmk when you find the block feature. I didn't see it anywhere.

CrazyEddie - there are several comments in just this thread where you put people down or say they are beneath you,
"causing u cry so much"
"Don't be ridiculous .... You have self esteem problem"
Your tone is nasty and no one appreciates it.

[jamtay317]

1Peter510 per your request I will do this again. I've added this to closer to 8% 3bet and 80% CBet this is with a polar range. In the next post, I will do a linear range.

Flop: may looks something like:


and the turn may looks something like:

so with these stats and polar, it is looking more towards a fold.



I'm not sure how accurate the turn is as I have him checking underpairs, so if you feel he is checking the TT JJ QQ, then yes it looks more like a fold.

[jamtay317]

now this is the linear range:

Flop:


Turn:


if you think they have more of a linear range it looks like a call.

[MrFuss]

If I had to choose I would lean towards a polar range for this player with pretty aggressive stats, especially at 10NL. Its such a nasty spot and the board smashes a polar range pretty hard. My QQ felt marginal especially when 160bb deep and and I chose to fold instead of closing my eyes and clicking it off.

[1Peter510]

Would 66-88 be in in a BTN 3bet range vs UTG open? I was leaning more toward AJo, KTs, ATo, or K9s. That may be a personal preference thing though, but I tend to play middle pairs for set mining opportunity vs UTG open (maybe even 99 & TT as well) and choose suited broadway cards and offsuit Aces instead (blockers for hands that are more likely to 4bet).

Also not sure he cbets turn with JJ & TT which is helping out the equity. But to get his Turn Cbet up to 60% we would have to add offsuit AQ & AJ with Ah & Ac depending on what adjustments the above notes had on the range. That may not impact equity for the hand much though.

Seems like the issues really boil down to:

1. Is BTN Polar or Linear preflop
2. Is BTN Cbetting pairs < Top Pair on the turn.

Also, we have one more street to go and can expect a bet about 40-70% of the time. If we call the turn bet, we have about 68bb behind and pot will be 209.5. We will be getting about 20% pot odds and most likely will have the equity to call.

[1Peter510]

jamtay317 I thought your work was very helpful. I greatly appreciate the work. Like you said, it does boil down to definitely fold if we think he is polar, we can call if we think he is linear.

I think since we don't know what villain is really doing and we can expect to face another bet at least half the time, folding is probably the correct play on the turn.

[kkep]

jamtay317 we don't know what his range is for sure so without more information we have to start with what we know is sound and expand out from there. I doubt he does this with middling pairs but for all I know he could be doing this with all of his paired combos.

I only made that comment because I wasn't sure if you understood the difference between Flopzilla's top 8 percent and a more fundamentally sound top 8 percent.

[jamtay317]

I do understand the difference between the top 8% of hands and fundamentally sound 8%. I personally play these stakes and from what I've found almost no one is "fundamentally sound", but the doesn't mean that they can't be. please forgive me if I came across agressive there I am under the weather and haven't had much sleep.

[jamtay317]

here is a fundamentally sound range.