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max exploit I did it again, those plays work just too often to stop it I think @peter

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  • CrazyEddie
    replied
    I think this play will fail alot .... against anyone competent .

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  • Guido
    replied
    thx when getting the right immediate pot odds ESP. oop it is always better to call or Mostly even better to raise despite getting the right immediate odds referring to gto ?

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  • 1Peter510
    replied
    My friend Guido ... I have missed you the past couple of days!!!! This will be a long post.... so apologies...

    Before I dive into how you actually played the hand, I much prefer a check raise on the flop here. Villain is unlikely to raise without a strong hand so you can easily fold if reraised. When called, you certainly keep betting on any heart, K, 7 or 2 (19 cards) and can still bluff on some other turn cards.

    As played....

    We talked about how your huge river overbets will almost certainly work around 60-70% of the time because your opponent will have Ace high or worse and not call any bet that often (well, I assume Ace high will fold until you get to the nosebleed stakes and maybe even then). But the problem with your bets is how often they must work to be +EV with an edge. Also an issue with your bets is that a smaller bet will work as often but risk less making the smaller bet a higher +EV play.

    So, let's dig into this one....

    Your bet has to work 73% of the time to break even.

    I assume HJ is c-betting 100% of his range on the flop. Let's also assume villain is balanced with bluffs and value bets on the turn when he value bets and that villain value bets turn with all overpairs or better (if he doesn't bet overpairs the math just gets worse for you depending on what villain will call with... and I imagine villain calls with overpairs if he checks them on the turn).

    Villain has 72.1% Ace high or worse that are folding to any bet. So your bet needs to get villain to fold out his 4's to break even and fold his 5's to have an edge. Let's assume that will work (although I believe a reasonable thinking player realizes you aren't likely to value bet a strong hand for 3x the pot and will call with a 4 or 5). Even though you have a slightly positive play, you are out of the tournament if villain has a 3 (2.7% of the time), has a 9 (13.1% of the time), or is willing to look you up with 88, 77, 66 (6.8% of the time).

    Now, let's look at the EV of your bet vs a pot size bet (which has a whopping 22.1% edge vs your 4% edge).

    Pot size bet = 5,393ev (will assume villain does call with 4's and 5's - 6,881ev if he folds those)
    Your bet = 2,085ev (assuming villain folds his 4's and 5's)

    Benefits of the Pot size:
    1. Get's 2.6 times the EV
    2. When you are wrong you get to keep playing with a healthy 14.8bb stack.
    Also worth noting, your bet needs to work 85% of the time to get the same EV as a pot size bet. That means villain MUST fold some 9's as well as 88, 77, & 66.

    Personally, I will always choose a pot size bet here.
    Last edited by 1Peter510; 10-28-2019, 07:18 PM.

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  • max exploit I did it again, those plays work just too often to stop it I think @peter

    https://upswingpoker.com/hand/?pokeit=124qrtXVs
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