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check raising or donk leading turn ? as played check river or betting smaller ?

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  • 1Peter510
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    I like 3betting preflop with this hand from the SB. If I called, I prefer check raising the flop.

    As played, raising the turn looks like what you have so calling keeps him in.

    On the river....

    I expect most bluffs to have dropped out of villains range on the turn when the diamond hits (especially when you have the Ad).

    Villains likely range on the river:
    26% full houses
    17% worse flushes
    57% top pair

    Your river bet wants to get value from his top pairs. Does a top pair call an all in when there are 3 to a flush and a paired board? Seems highly unlikely.

    A half pot bet needs to work twice as often as your pot size bet to be the same ev. Assuming villain always calls your jam with his flushes and villain always folds his top pairs to your jam, you only need to get 1/3rd of his top pairs to call your half pot bet (his combos of AQ make up 38% of his top pairs, so seems likely half pot gets twice as many calls). In addition, half pot bet doesn't put villains tournament at risk, allows him to muck when wrong, and get huge applause when he catches your bluff. All of this adds up to him calling a half pot bet more than twice as often as your pot size jam.

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  • allin
    replied
    Hey Guido I sent you a pm - Justin

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  • check raising or donk leading turn ? as played check river or betting smaller ?

    https://upswingpoker.com/hand/?pokeit=324qrcAsO
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