Facing a donk on the river

[Deadmoney_V]

2-5 1k cap $915 eff, V is a competent recreational player
utg +1 opens $25, we flat in mp 8d8h, hj, Btn and sb call
flop ($125) 2h8cJd, utg+1 $60, we flat (???), fold fold, sb calls
turn ($305) Qd, utg+1 x, we $210 (???), sb calls, fold
river ($725) 5d, sb jams,
hero?

[RealJPB]

So by my math we’re calling $620 to win a pot that’s going to be $1965. We need 31.5% to break even on a call.

The two hands that beat you don’t make complete sense here. He can certainly have some bd diamonds that call flop but I doubt he plays a huge number of combos of them. And some of those combos might raise the turn.
T9 makes *some* sense but then you’d expect some combos to raise turn and many people aren’t just going to rip that hand on the river when the flush comes in.


Having the 8d blocks a few value combos that would play this way. The general population doesn’t bluff river enough so my first instinct was to fold but I think I’d call here.

[1Peter510]

I would raise on the flop to $200 to build the pot and take the initiative. Would also do that with AJs, J8s, 22, T9s, 97s, Q9s, QTs.

As played, SB called flop getting 19% odds, called turn getting 29% odds, and donked river when the backdoor diamond flush comes in.

Villain seems to be reping a flush. You labeled as competent so most likely QQ, JJ jam the turn when you bet 60% pot and there is a flush draw and straight draws on the board. If SB didn't raise with a T9 on the flop, he hit a straight on the turn and certainly would have jammed being scared of a flush (except for Td9d). So, what bd diamonds make sense?

You block Xd8d that could have called the flop and turned more equity so got sticky.

Does a competent player with Xd2d cold call after a cbet/call? Doesn't seem likely.

Td9d - well that turned a straight so seems more likely that jams the turn.

AdKd, KdTd, Kd9d AdTd - is a competent player cold calling a cbet/call on the flop? Doesn't seem likely.

I don't believe villain has many, if any flushes here (or we need to change from competent to loose/passive). Unlikely villain has a straight or better set. It seems like villain had a marginal hand and sees the opportunity to bluff the river when a flush hits.

I would call expecting villain to turn over Ad,Jhcs.

[LondonImp]

RealJPB + 1Peter510

Both really good answers.

I was so on the fence about this I deleted my half-typed response but reading your arguments definitely leads me towards a call here.

[1Peter510]

Deadmoney_V what actually happened?

[jamtay317]

I think calling the flop is okay, but I think that I would rather raise the flop. Maybe something like 2/3rds pot, so 175 180 ish. I would imagine that you're getting called by overpairs and AJ,9T, AK,22, maybe AQs( with BDFD), and the reason that I like this is that there are so many people in the pot. if someone reraises all in and you're in a bad spot that you just have to call.

As Played, the turn comes and its the Qd, UTG+1 checks and you bet 2/3rds pot? what is the reason for this bet? are you value betting, turning a set into a bluff?
If you're value betting what to do you think you're going to be called with?
I don't think AJ is calling here 9T got there AQ could call you but I don't think AQ is ever checking the turn
A set of 22 will call, but there aren't that many of those 2 pair would call, something like QJ I don't think there are that many J8s in their range
if you're bluffing what better hands are going to fold? (I would say no better hands are going to fold)

in my opinion, I think would bet small for value something like $80 or $100 where many of the 1 pair hands can call.

As played when they jam the river you have to call.

[Deadmoney_V]

The turn was a value bet as I was only loosing to T9, I didn’t think think he had JJ, QQ that often, I was targeting QJ, 8J (4combos only but he has it sometimes even in SB), 22 (3 combos), Ad2d, AdTd is he has it there somehow , Ad9d, Q8(3combos)
what do you think his range is when he called 2/3 pot bet on the turn?

[1Peter510]

Who knows, the description of competent player leads to me think he has a J with the Ad or Kd and decided to bluff. I want to think his flush draws would have been bluffed on earlier streets. Ad2d is about the only one that makes sense to me and even that seems pretty loose to call on the flop.

[jamtay317]

I would say that when he calls 2/3 bet on the river he has some straights some sets, i would say never has 1 pair hands being you're betting into 2 players. he could have AKdd that thought cbetting a wet board could take it down. But my assumption would be that he had QQ,JJ,22,9Ts,QJs or AKdd.

[jamtay317]

if he is competent he is never raising J8o or J8s from UTG+1

[Deadmoney_V]

jamtay317 I Think you lost in hand a little bit, the main V in a hand is in a SB, the utg+1 is the OR, also 2/3 pot bet was on the turn

[jamtay317]

yes I understand that, the UTG+1 opened the pot, and cbet. Then the SB calls PFR, calls Flop bet calls turn and jams the river. do you think a competent player OOP is going to call a raise preflop, then call a big bet on the turn in a multiway pot without the nuts? I don't.