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how I bullied myself out of the tourney

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  • how I bullied myself out of the tourney

    any comments appreciated

    is this too fishy ?

    is this too aggressive ?

    I started with 18 BB effectively

  • #2
    Seems pretty standard to me. Board should favor BB flatting range. You've got the right stack to check shove an OESD w/ BDFD. Villains range has way more unpaired overcards than sets or overpairs. This time villain had a set and you lost.

    However, sometimes I will play a more passively when Im covered by villain to avoid getting knocked out in this type of situation depending on what type of player villain is.
    Last edited by MrFuss; 10-09-2019, 11:13 PM.


    • #3
      With my premium hands and bluffs I would have c/r to about 2800 setting up the turn jam.
      Are you ever going 2.2x pot with the nuts there?
      Last edited by kkep; 10-11-2019, 04:33 AM.


      • MrFuss
        MrFuss commented
        Editing a comment
        Im not sure I would play this way with only 18bb in this spot. I would rather get it in before letting my opponent off the hook. If we x/r flop small with a premium and villain continues (which he certainly should with about any 2 cards at that price), if any scary card comes on the turn, which there is plenty, he will fold and we lose value. Plus I want to maximize fold equity when I raise the flop with my draws, especially OOP.

        By jamming we maximize value with our premium hands and maximize fold equity with our draws.

        If we had a deeper stack I see the merit in raising small on the flop, getting villain to continue wide to the turn and then pushing him off.

        I can see raising the flop small in this spot and being able to get away from the hand if villain shoves after we x/r but I dont think many competent players would take that line with much of their range on this board vs BB flatting pre.
        Last edited by MrFuss; 10-10-2019, 11:37 AM.

      • kkep
        kkep commented
        Editing a comment
        MrFuss I guess the c/r should be a little bit bigger. However the V has the range advantage not the nut advantage.

        I'm giving him 9 combos of sets, 4 combos of straights (11 nutted combos) and 48 combos of over pairs.

        That is 61 combos so if we make him balanced he is going to have roughly 60 combos of draws he is betting too.

        Of those very few will want to continue here. In fact I don't think he would continue with all of his over pairs either.

        If he isn't balanced he could be betting all sorts of stuff like AK AQ AJ KQ 33 22 etc and we get way more folds.

        Maybe he lets go of some or all of the 88 99 TT and JJ but his he really going to call a jam on the turn with QQ+?
        Maybe maybe not....

        A c/r would be putting the V in a really crappy spot as it should be obvious that the hero is almost certainly playing for his stack.

        vs a min raise open from the BB the hero has all the sets (9), straights (36) w/o 73o (48) with 73o and all of the 2 pair combos (27)

        If I did the math right we are risking 2800 to win 4868 which has to work about 57% of the time.

        I'm not sure if we get there but I think it should be close....

        The fact of the matter is I wouldn't have made this play either although I don't hate it now that I dove into it.

        I would have called the flop looking to pick up some equity to jam on the turn with or give up.

    • #4
      I do understand kkep. How much Chips would you Need to go allin on Flop?


      • kkep
        kkep commented
        Editing a comment
        If I have enough chips to call and see a flop that means I have enough to play post flop.
        I don't know if he folds any over pair there either....

      • MrFuss
        MrFuss commented
        Editing a comment
        JL says many times in the quizzes that if you have about 10x the opponents bet its a good spot to shove. I can't recall if that applies specifically to pre flop or post but I believe its at any point in the hand.

    • #5
      I have villain opening: 44+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo

      Figure villain is c-betting everything but calling the jam with: 44+,A7s-A3s,97s,86s+,75s+,65s,54s,A7o-A3o

      SO the range looks something like this:

      Th3h has 35.3% equity against the calling range. Villain is folding 60.6% of the time. Making expected value = +2208

      For you to just break even, villain has to call with everything in his range except A8o & A2o (calling 93.2% of the time) or like A2o & A2s (calling 95.5%).

      I think your jam is fine. It is high variance, but shows a 3BB profit if assumptions are accurate. I love the jam if there were 2 hearts on the board. No hearts on the board, just fold to the C-bet.

      Not a fan of check raising less than all in here. If you 3x raise, you are risking 1/3rd of your stack and might as well jam. Less than a 3x raise, you are giving villain 19-25% pot odds in position with not many turns you are loving. I think 2-2.5x gets called a good bit and leaves you with less than a pot size shove. I say jam the flop or fold, and personally would lean toward a jam there depending on ICM implications.


      • #6
        what else u do this with ? what stage of tournament ? what is your goal ?

        I can get behind "get rich or die trying "