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QTs CO day 1 qualifier

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  • QTs CO day 1 qualifier

    Day 1x qualifier of high guarantee event
    18 left, 8 players qualify for Day 2 + $500 cash
    Day 2 direct buyin players start with 210k

    HJ 135k (older Chinese reg I've played with often, oscillates between TAG/LAG, fairly good but opening ranges sometimes contain crazy hands, tricky)
    Hero CO 200k
    BU 100k (young Asian, black cap, just joined table when down to 2)

    100k effective 3/5/5k
    Hero CO QdTd
    HJ opens 13k, Hero calls, BU calls, blinds fold.

    Pot 52k
    Flop Qs9d5c
    HJ checks, Hero bets 18k, BU calls, HJ makes a show of asking about stacks and calls.

    Pot 106k
    Turn (Qs9d5c)2s
    HJ checks, Hero checks, BU goes all-in for 65k, HJ folds, Hero?

    Hypotheticals:
    Turn is 2h, Hero?
    Turn is 2d, Hero?
    Turn is Jh, Hero?

  • #2
    Just giving this an in-game amount of thought I can get behind a fold here. How many backdoor spades is BU calling flop with? I'd imagine BU has some combos of JT he plays this way but otherwise how many worse Qx will he take this line with?

    Meanwhile this is probably the worst Qx you have in your range.

    Comment


    • #3
      He calls the flop so likely has a Q, a 9, maybe a 9xs hand or a slow play? Everyone checks to him so why not shove is my guess

      Comment


      • #4
        Thinking this through. BTN overcalls a HJ raise with 20bb. Can eliminate AA,KK,QQ,JJ,AK from his range I think. Just looking at the 25bb charts and assuming he has that preflop calling range, when you bet 18k, that brings the pot to 70k and gives BTN a pot sized shove of 83k. Does he really just call with a better Q? I think he jams with his top pairs, 2-pairs, and sets with only a pot size bet left in his stack. I doubt he calls you with Q2,92,52, or 22 if they are even in his range to begin with. I don't see the 2 benefiting BTN's range and I don't see him having better hands here that didn't jam the flop.

        Your check on the turn caps your range at a pair. BTN's jam looks like a 9, JJ, TT, etc trying to bluff you off your hand. Maybe a flush draw.

        Your MDF is 63% of your range that calls preflop, bets flop, and checks turn.

        Guessing your range that calls pre and bets flop is something like 99, 55, KQ, QTs, KJo, KTs, JTs, A4s, A3s . I assume you bet turn with 99, 55, KQ, JTs, A4s, & A3s leaving you checking with QTs, KJo, and KTs (KJo/KTs can be swapped with A4s & A3s).

        i don't see how you can fold this hand regardless if it were 2d or 2h. Maybe if it were Jh, depending on how that impacts your strategy with your range.
        Last edited by 1Peter510; 10-09-2019, 08:48 PM.

        Comment


        • #5
          2h makes it a bit more likely villain has a made hand. Jh completes a straight and creates some 2p possibilities. You block the straight, but not J9.

          With the 2s, I don't think you can fold. You have tp, probably the best kicker unless bu is playing exactly QJ. AQ, KQ are unlikely. From button, there are so many likely 2nd best hands and draws.

          Which means more to you here? Having 100k or 300k? Is having 300k worth risking half your stack 10 out of the money?
          Last edited by Mayday; 10-09-2019, 10:24 PM.

          Comment


          • #6
            Thanks for the analysis guys. Someone else outside this thread recommended usually checking TP with T kicker on the flop, I can definitely see that being a nice play. As it stood, I think one thing to keep in mind is that he's jamming less than pot into two players on the turn. Given the action thus far, shouldn't he expect at least one of those remaining players to call? Not saying he's not ever bluffing, but is he ever doing this with a value hand worse than QT?

            Originally posted by Mayday View Post
            Which means more to you here? Having 100k or 300k? Is having 300k worth risking half your stack 10 out of the money?
            I think this is a really good question. Like I mentioned, direct buyins to Day 2 start with 210k. If Hero folds to this bet he'll have 165k and still need to win some pots but will be pretty close to the goal stack. If he calls and loses, he'll need to fight hard for chips to get a seat. If he calls and wins he can play on the tighter side and coast in with enough chips. I kind of like a fold given all of his value hands beat us. Pot is laying 5:2 though so I think this is likely a pretty close spot. If it was a heads-up pot I think it's a much easier call, but that he did this into two players makes me think a snug fold might be the best idea. It still doesn't seem clear to me so I appreciate everyone's feedback.
            Last edited by reeeeeeper; 10-09-2019, 11:17 PM.

            Comment


            • #7
              I think there are good arguments for checking QTs on the flop (especially the "risking half your stack"). If betting, I think bet smaller (13k) on flop and follow up with like 18k on the turn. Seems to make it easier to fold to a jam and avoids capping your range.

              As to betting into 2 players. "Young Asian" leads me to believe he knows about capped ranges and that a jam will likely get both of you to fold. His biggest concern is HJ having QQ but that is only 3 combos.

              As played, i count 20 combos that beat you and 24 combos that make sense to bluff given your capped range. You are putting in 27% of the pott and seem to be winning 50% of the time. As it stands, you already put in about 30% of that "half your stack".

              In any event, what actually happened?
              Last edited by 1Peter510; 10-10-2019, 04:53 AM.

              Comment


              • reeeeeeper
                reeeeeeper commented
                Editing a comment
                This is a good analysis. The one thing I'm wondering is what effect these half-satellite conditions play. You only get $500 for making day 2, so simple survival and chips lost being worth more than chips won comes into play. Makes me think he might choose to take a free card with many of his semibluffs. I called, he had KQo. I busted a few rounds later as a 3:2 favorite and also getting pot odds, but if I had folded that hand I'd have been left with 10BBs instead of busting, hence the question.

              • 1Peter510
                1Peter510 commented
                Editing a comment
                Hmm. KQo makes me question my ranging. Probably need to include AQ in there even though I would think he raises with that preflop and bets for value on the flop. That makes 32 combos that beat you and 27 reasonable hands that bluff (just pairs less than Q). So you are ahead of 46% of assumed his range.

                Still seems like a call, but hard to know when he shows the top of his range. Maybe giving him too much credit for playing your capped range given he didn't raise with top pair strong kicker on the flop.

                But easy enough to avoid the spot by checking the flop which is the line I like best.

            • #8
              I would call...if taken the line you took: bet flop , chk turn.

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