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When there are no bluffs, but villain's line makes no sense, is it still a bluff?

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  • When there are no bluffs, but villain's line makes no sense, is it still a bluff?

    As the old adage goes: if your opponent's line makes no sense then it's probably a bluff.

    No Limit Hold'em $0.02/$0.05
    6 players

    Stacks:
    UTG - Hero (
    $10.87)
    MP - MP ($7.15)
    CO - CO (
    $5.11)
    BTN - BTN (
    $7.04)
    SB - SB (
    $10.46)
    BB - BB (
    $6.24)

    Preflop: (
    $0.07, 6 players) Hero is UTG with AdKd
    Hero raises to $0.12, 4 folds, BB calls $0.07

    Flop:
    2h4cKc ($0.26, 2 players - BB: $6.12, Hero: $10.75)
    BB checks,
    Hero bets $0.09, BB calls $0.09

    Turn:
    Ac ($0.44, 2 players - BB: $6.03, Hero: $10.66)
    BB checks,
    Hero bets $0.24, BB calls $0.24

    River:
    9h ($0.92, 2 players - BB: $5.79, Hero: $10.42)
    BB bets $0.66, Hero ??


    Really on the fence on this one. Villain's line doesn't make a whole lot of sense. I suppose it's either a flush or nothing right?

    Because I would never take a line like this, it makes it difficult for me to range my opponent.

    I feel like letting this go might mean I'm overfolding and wouldn't it take a creative opponent to find a bluff here? At these stakes my opponent could be overvaluing A9, K9 etc.



  • #2
    I agree with you that there are not many bluffs in his range. Maybe he would bluff with QcKx, JcKx, Kc10x.

    He could have a flush. He could also have 22, 44, 35, A4. Are you ruling out these non flush hands and if so, why?

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Joseph View Post
      He could also have 22, 44, 35, A4. Are you ruling out these non flush hands and if so, why?
      To be honest I didn't even consider 53. Would this actually be in his range here? Just because it isn't in my big blind defending range doesn't mean it won't be in other people's I suppose.

      When the flush gets there on the turn, as well as the fact that I have AA-KK in my range and so could've hit sets with either of these, I would be classifying 22,44 and A4 as marginal made hands.

      Why would anyone lead with a marginal made hand here on the river? Is it for value? Is it as a bluff trying to push me off a better hand? It doesn't even appear to be a blocking bet because it's far too big...

      It's likely to be one of those situations where the opponent doesn't know what they are doing so we can't possible know what they are doing.

      Comment


      • #4
        What I personally like to do is run these types of hands in Flopzilla to help me define their range, and do this as a homework assignment. Then check it with PioSolver.

        My typical open range from the LJ is something like:
        ?

        Preflop JustGTO suggests that you open for 2.5x, which is what you do and we go to a flop.

        The Flop comes:Kc4c2h
        It's a pretty dry flop; I would like to see you bet small for value here. I would say something like 1/3 pot the pot is $0.26 so maybe $0.10.

        which you bet $0.09(which is actually 1/3 pot )

        I think my range would look something like:



        when the villain calls, what could he have? I would say something a marginal made hand or a draw. so I gave it something like:
        Click image for larger version

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        The turn comes and its: Ac

        The flushes got there, but overall this is a good hand for your range. I would still bet for value here, but if check-raised here I think I would throw up in my mouth a little. anyways I think I would bump the sizing up a little because you want to charge any 1club hand to see a river so the pot is 0.44 I think that I would bet about $0.30 which you bet just over half pot. anyways I would try to bet just a little bit bigger.


        I have his range looking something like:

        Click image for larger version

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        The river comes and 9h: Personally I think that is a blank, So when the opponent donks into you here I think you only have one option and that is to call.

        So looking at this in if he is doing this with something terrible like middle pair you have 65% equity against his range, if he is never doing this with Kx and only doing this with 2 pair and better you have 47% equity.

        I will run this in PioSolver later today and add a comment saying what they recommend on the comment.

        Comment


        • #5
          jamtay317 - Thank you for taking the time to write such a thorough answer. I'm glad to see we're in agreement on the actions so far and almost all the sizings

          I'm surprised by the actual number of flush combinations that villain has in there range when we get to the river but your hand reading makes sense.

          Your analysis actually shows one of my favourite things about poker. Everything is so subjective. We have the exact same information in front of us and yet we can draw different conclusions and perhaps both be correct.

          Your say our only option is to call, but it makes me think our only option is to fold. I just don't believe that our opponent will be betting enough of his bluffs and marginal hands (e.g. 2p and whatnot) to make up for all the flush draws he is likely to bet.

          Of course he is unlikely to be betting all of his flush draws - his weaker flushes could be fairly marginal and function better as check calls. But micro stakes players often over value their hands. But then this might mean that he is betting his marginals after all and that I should be calling (haha).

          Comment


          • jamtay317
            jamtay317 commented
            Editing a comment
            LondonImp well I mean what about two pair? a "slow-played" Ax, something like K9 A9 A4 A2 something that got there on the river that you still beat. I personally would think that you would get check-raise on the turn if he caught the flush, but some do think "I'm going to trap them" that does happen a lot in microstakes. I would be interested to see what JL says about this hand
            Last edited by jamtay317; 10-08-2019, 08:36 AM.

          • LondonImp
            LondonImp commented
            Editing a comment
            Yes it would be very interesting to see what Mr Little had to say about the hand. That, and a lot of other discussion we have on here.

            As a 'community' I think we do very well discussing each others' questions and problems, and then moving forwards and learning together. I just wish there was more input from the actual coaches on this forum.

          • jamtay317
            jamtay317 commented
            Editing a comment
            Usually, if I email him and ask to look at a forum he will respond on it. I have not on this one, I think once its run in PioSolver we will have a definitive answer.
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