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what do you think about my bustout hand ?

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  • what do you think about my bustout hand ?

    https://upswingpoker.com/hand/?pokeit=624ppGkxK

    7 bb is the limit where i call a minraise when i am in the bb , i go then allin with any pair, any gutshot draw and better , any 2 overcards ..

  • #2
    This seems to be the most likely board for you to get (bottom pair) where you have decent equity. You have about a pot size bet behind and about 30% equity preflop. Highly likely to realize your equity being so short stacked. But, villains range is probably going to call correctly on the flop (needs to defend 50% and will have plenty of pairs, sets, 2-pairs that aren't folding and only needs a few draws (straights with 2 overs) to round out his MDF of about 50%.

    That range has 68% equity against your hand, so if I am doing the math correctly, your expected value is like $1,600. If you just fold to the open you have $1,664. Even if my math is a little off and you have more EV, it is at best marginal and you are putting your tournament at risk.

    I say fold 54o with 5.5bb preflop, even to a min-raise. I would rather open jam 5bb preflop later in the orbit.

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    • #3
      The problem with this play is that the big stacks are in position. Post flop you don't really have any fold equity against them and under the best circumstances when you flop 1 pair, you're flipping. I don't play connectors under 67 and probably would have folded pre or checked the flop and jammed the turn on a blackish card.

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