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2 pair vs very weak player

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  • 2 pair vs very weak player

    Ignition - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    SB: 101 BB (VPIP: 25.93, PFR: 14.81, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)
    BB: 211.6 BB (VPIP: 44.59, PFR: 1.35, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 75)
    UTG: 72.4 BB (VPIP: 37.50, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
    Hero (CO): 262.6 BB
    BTN: 101.8 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)

    SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

    Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A:heart: 2:heart:

    UTG calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 3 BB, UTG calls 3 BB

    Flop: (12.4 BB, 3 players) 7:spade: A:club: 2:diamond:
    BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets 13.8 BB, BB calls 13.8 BB, fold

    Turn: (40 BB, 2 players) J:spade:
    BB checks, Hero bets 45 BB, BB calls 45 BB

    River: (130 BB, 2 players) Q:diamond:
    BB checks, Hero ??


    How do you feel about jamming the river here?
    Last edited by jamtay317; 10-02-2019, 05:13 AM.

  • #2
    First things first, I think your ISO range is too wide here. Facing a limper(s) our weak suited aces function well as over-limps.

    Anyway, before deciding on what our river action should be, we need to put our opponents on a range:

    75 hands is not a particularly big sample, but the fact that their 3bet % is a 0 theoretically means they could have every ace combo in their range, which of course includes A7, AJ, and AQ (as well all the pocket pairs, many of which will now have made a set). Against all of these we are losing. It might be argued that these would have been a raise at some point in the hand, but when we see a VPiP/PFR of 45/1 we can deduce that our opponent is incredibly passive.

    You have overbet on both the flop and turn and so the opponent is unlikely to have complete air. The flop was also very dry with very few draws available - the only one being a 5-high straight draw which has missed by the river.

    They may have called down so far with just A high but are they likely to call a shove here? I wouldn't have thought so, but of course it is possible.

    After thinking it through, I'm really struggling to think of any hands that our opponent would call with that we beat. There will no doubt be a couple, but not enough to offset the times we are called and lose the hand.

    In this case I would be taking the pot control option and checking.

    Comment


    • jamtay317
      jamtay317 commented
      Editing a comment
      @Londonlmp Lets talk about this, Why do you feel Axs is to lose? When you're playing someone 41/1 yes they can have all of the Ax hands too, but they can be limping a lot of Garbage too like Q8o and 79o which we're actually flipping against this range. Also, there are a lot of hands that we beat, J7 QJ Jx Ax.
      Last edited by jamtay317; 10-02-2019, 06:17 AM.

    • LondonImp
      LondonImp commented
      Editing a comment
      I don't think all suited aces are too loose, just the worst ones. And I wasn't advocating folding, just taking a more defensive line in a situation where we could very well be dominated, especially considering there are 3 people left to act (not including the original limper).

      When we get to the river it's important to note that the villain did not limp as stated in your comment, they called your ISO raise OOP. Do you really think villain will be floating with Q8o (provided that they even call pre with this) on that flop facing a bet greater than the size of the pot? Incredibly unlikely in my opinion. It's important to consider their range at every stage of the hand when determining what hands remain by the time we get to the river.

      It's a similar situation as just mentioned when we look at 97o. Yes they might well call on the flop (again provided that they even called pre with this), but facing another barrel greater than the size of the pot on the turn are they really going to call again?

      You talk about 'flipping against this range' but I think you may be getting confused as this is not applicable to river decisions. They are simply going to fold their junk to a shove.

      This all lead me to my final point that our opponent will not be calling our shove with enough hands that we beat.

    • jamtay317
      jamtay317 commented
      Editing a comment
      LondonImp I'll wait until others comment on this until I reveal what I did and what they showed up with.
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