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Pot odds refresher

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  • Pot odds refresher

    For the longest time I calculated pot odds as follows: if your opponent bets $5 into a $5 pot, you need 33% equity to call (5 into 10 equals 2-1) but it seems a newer concept calculates AFTER "my" call, so actually calling $5 into a pot that will be $15 gives me 3-1 odds, or 25% equity. I'm just wondering which is correct.
    This questions came to me because, in a recent cash game hand, someone bet $21.50 into a pot of $16.80 or so, where I had Q10 of hearts on a J478 board with two hearts. Very very likely both draws were live as he 3bet preflop, bet pot on flop then overbet turn. He did have top set, and I'm wondering, should I have made that call?

    Also, what do you make of his play? Sure, he got me to fold out a hand with a bunch of equity, but he also didn't get called when he was about 62% to win. It made me think of something I've heard Jonathan say, which is "amateurs are scared to death of being outdrawn" which I think it clearly the case here.
    Last edited by; 09-29-2019, 07:49 AM.

  • #2
    We need to know the effective stack sizes and the probability of more money going into the pot when the obvious draws hit.
    It sounds like vs this sort of player folding might be the best play...


    • #3
      I'm sorry, I should have specified, he jammed all in on the turn and I had him covered. Also my first question is more a generality, basically, do you calculate pot odds based on the size of the pot before, or after your call.


      • #4
        There is a different way of calculating for all in vs just a normal situation to get directly to equity.
        In a lot of JL videos you see him calculate it after. eg
        Pot is 5000
        Hero bets 3000
        Villain pushes all in for 17500
        Pot will be 40000 if hero calls
        Hero has to put in 14500 to win 40000

        In your example, you have 33% with 2:1 pot odds :

        5/15 = 33% or
        10/5= 2:1 = 1/3 = 33%

        In summary pot odds = current pot/amount to call giving you a ratio of x:x which you then need to convert to a percentage
        Pot equity % = amount to call / what total pot would be giving you percentage immediately

        Basically with an oesd you have maybe 32% equity so it's very close if the pot is offering you 33%

        Last edited by Bentley; 09-30-2019, 01:07 PM.


        • rockin m
          rockin m commented
          Editing a comment
          how do you figure he has 32% ev? with 4, 9s isd on the river, 4outs X.2= 8% of catching a straight? which would have been a winner chick'in dinner,
          what position was the oop in?

        • Bentley
          Bentley commented
          Editing a comment
          I was thinking an oesd with 8 outs from the flop for some reason...
          On re-reading it seems more like:
          Q10 of hearts on a J478 board with two hearts
          4 9s
          8 hearts
          12 outs = 24%
          Maybe a Q increases it a little, couple of percent
          And pot is offering less.

          Example was really meant to be looking in terms of odds vs %

      • #5
        so with 24% it would be a fold? math wise -ev? what would be the percentage of winning/losing? 24% winning vs 76% loosing? or?


        • Bentley
          Bentley commented
          Editing a comment
          Use an equity calculator to find out. You can input his likely range on the turn