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Folding TT too nitty preflop ?

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  • Folding TT too nitty preflop ?

    Yesterday live local mtt having TT we started with 25 k , blinds 100/200 (effective stack roughly 23.000)

    10 handed
    Hero Position UTG + 2 first in
    Hero raises to 600
    cutoff reraises to 3500

    Hero folds ...

    i was surprised by this big sizing. Did not want To play a big pot oop this early in a mtt

    But i feel this could be Too nitty

    current trend seems like calling a lot to all Kind of big bets no matter Whether ip or oop , pretty much never 4 Betting, never folding

    i would have called up to say 2200

    what do you think about my fold here?

  • #2
    I would fold too

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    • #3
      General rule with pocket pairs is you need 10x implied odds. So in this instance villain would need a 29k stack to even think about calling. Easy fold, esp early in the tournament and OOP. There will be better spots.

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      • #4

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        • Guido
          Guido commented
          Editing a comment
          I had the reentry possibility.. but i didnt feel like doubling up is that much worth this early ,and to be honest I felt like I am against JJ, QQ, 99 more than Ak. i did not think he could hold Aq.. but i have in hindsight also thought about going allin but i still think my fold was correct

          but really nobody seems to fold to 3 bets anymore to my observation .. but i dont care , i fold if i find it correctly

        • reeeeeeper
          reeeeeeper commented
          Editing a comment
          Yeah, folding is the right play for sure. I think doubling up early is very helpful in large field events, but for small field events you're right that it doesn't matter much.

          Also, if no one is folding to 3-bets, and everyone knows no one is folding to 3-bets, then you should probably be folding to 3-bets.

      • #5
        I think the fold was correct. With no history here and being so deepstacked, you can't feel great about your equity. The default range for someone in a local tournament 3-betting to this amount and in this situation is probably full of higher pairs and maybe AK.

        Maybe you find out later that he is a spaz that 3-bets like a maniac, but I dont think that would be the case too often.

        Being OOP to someone that is being aggressive would pretty much put you in the position of set mining here.

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        • #6
          I have a hand with TT on final table of $44 bounty. Let's see if I should have folded mine.


          I was the CL with 73BB ... ( Been CL since it was 30 players ... dropping down to 2nd place once )

          2nd biggest stack limped 64BB , I raised to 5x with TT. ( blind on blind ) Game was 5 handed, other stacks on table : 25, 55, 25

          He shipped on me and rivered Ace.


          There is of course history between us ( we were at the same table ever since 30 players left ) ... this hand was basically for 1st place finish. Does it sound like he was a little tilted ??? I will fill in the rest later ... of hands leading up to that point.

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          • kkep
            kkep commented
            Editing a comment
            Welcome back

          • CrazyEddie
            CrazyEddie commented
            Editing a comment
            Yo yo ...

            I've been told AQ jam is standard ??##$!#

            that jam allows me to play perfectly ... and he put himself at risk.

        • #7
          Don't worry about being "nitty" in these 3b spots or thinking about the absolute strength of your hand, instead look at the relative strength of your hand or how your hand stacks up vs villains range and compare it with the odds you are getting and the surrounding fluid factors.

          Odds:

          You need to call 2900 into a pot of 4400 so you need around 40% equity.

          In small stakes tournaments in 3b pots villains are generally not 3b bluffing nearly enough. Especially with this sizing. I think we can range villain as follows (and this is probably on the wider side):

          Click image for larger version  Name:	Screen Shot 2019-09-25 at 3.47.32 PM.png Views:	0 Size:	51.5 KB ID:	24653

          Most villains will show up with JJ+ and AK here but I wanted to use a wider or best case scenario.

          We are right on the cusp of 40% against the above wider range.

          Let's look at MDF:

          Villain is risking 3500 to win 4400.

          So your MDF = 20%

          If your opening a range like this:

          Click image for larger version  Name:	Screen Shot 2019-09-25 at 3.57.06 PM.png Views:	0 Size:	276.5 KB ID:	24654You are opening 174 combo's.

          Since our MDF is 20%, we need to defend roughly 35/174 combos to keep villain from auto-profiting with this massive sizing.

          The larger a villain bets, the less we have to defend.

          If we continue with the super tight range of QQ+, AK and AQs+ we are at 38 combos. So we are not being exploited by folding TT.

          Other factors:

          1. We are OOP so we will have a hard time realizing our equity.

          2. We are in a low stakes, soft field tournament where we probably have a solid edge.

          3. We are not getting good enough implied odds to turn our hand into a set mine.

          4. Villain is using a massive sizing and we have no reads.

          5. We are exploiting by folding decent, but not great hands against a snug 3b range.

          To me this is a fold and not nitty, its exploiting the villain.
          Last edited by JredA; 09-25-2019, 04:09 PM.

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          • #8

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            • #9
              wow, I would not fold TT ... I stand alone.

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              • #10
                As I thought about this I would not have folded, however, JredA explanation shows this is a clear fold. Thanks for posting this, I just learned something!

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                • #11
                  Originally posted by JredA View Post
                  Let's look at MDF:

                  Villain is risking 3500 to win 4400.

                  So your MDF = 20%
                  Is this definitely right? Isn't it affected by the fact that we don't have to call a full 3500, just 2900?

                  Using the MDF = pot / (pot + bet) would we not get:

                  1500 / ( 1500 + 2900 ) = 34%

                  1500 being comprised of the blinds (300), our raise (600), and the portion of the villains bet that is essentially used as the call (600). The remaining 2900 in the calculation is the actual size of the 3bet over the top of our initial raise and what villain is risking to try and win the pot at this point.


                  EDIT: Trying to clarify what I mean...

                  My understanding of MDF is that it is essentially the inverse of our pot odds. Here is a very basic table showing 4 situations:
                  Pot Bet Odds MDF
                  10 5 33% 67%
                  5 5 50% 50%
                  5 10 67% 33%
                  1500 2900 66% 34%
                  Odds = Bet / ( Pot + Bet )
                  MDF = Pot / (Pot + Bet )
                  Last edited by LondonImp; 10-02-2019, 09:13 AM.

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                  • #12
                    The formula I have always used for simplicity is to take the opposite of the APT or auto profit threshold.

                    In this hand, VILLAIN is betting 3500 to win a pot of 4400 (3500 (villains bet) + 900 (what's currently in the pot). So villains APT is 3500/4400 or 79.5%.

                    Villain is auto profiting IF the opponent - which is hero in this case - is folding more than 79.5% of his range.

                    The opposite of APT is the MDF. So WE need to defend 19.5% to prevent villain from auto-profiting (100 - 79.5 = 19.5)

                    Lets use one of your examples in the chart you provided.

                    IF we get to the river and it contains $10 in it and we check to villain who bets $5.

                    Villain is risking $5 to win $15 ($10 that's in the pot + his bet of $5).

                    So his APT = 33% or 5/15. So our MDF is simply 100-33 or 67%.

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                    • #13
                      I generally fold to big bets until I know what the villain is doing. My default read on this bet is typically AKo, JJ-AA and sometimes AKs (for some reason people want to see flops with this hand more than not). We're not doing well against that range.

                      There is a subset of REGs that will do this much wider early playing go big or go home against sticky bad fields. A read is required to call these bets with this player type.

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