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$65 Local casino tourney

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  • $65 Local casino tourney

    Not at the table long, villian seems pretty active.
    villain ~20k
    blinds 800/1600
    hero opens utg to 3500 with 77
    Folds around to button calls. Blinds fold.
    flop 445r
    hero bets 4k, villain raises to 12k
    I know some will say shove pre, but as played can I ask what do I beat here? A5 and 66 is all I can think of. Hands that beat me A4, 55, 88, maybe 99,TT. Does that make this a fold?

  • #2
    In a 65 Dollar local Casino with no reads i would just fold here for the reasons you explained. Also Population tendency People bluff Not nearly enough As they should


    • #3
      Live small buy tournaments are typically fast. This hand is probably a fold pre.


      • #4


        • #5
          I don't see how you can fold here. You have an overpair with a SPR of about 2. This is about as good of a flop as you are going to get when you are called.

          This flop missed almost all of your range. His bet is probably a good one to pick up this pot a good deal of the time with nothing, and even if he's not totally bluffing, you are still beating a lot of what he could have.

          People love suited connectors and one gappers. 65, 75, 76 are all there. 66, 33, 22, A5, as well.


          • #6
            I would also fold under the circumstances you described. The probability of winning is extremely low. You can certainly take the risk, but I don't think it's worth it. It was for similar reasons that I've stopped playing poker. I believe that in slots I can get the same probability of winning, but I will definitely know that my loss was due to a simple chance and not because of the human factor of excitement. I'd been looking for a good replacement for poker until I found, where there was no human factor involved, and I could get large free spins bonuses that increased my chances of winning.
            Last edited by Jonny1989; 04-12-2021, 04:37 PM.