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5 left with a mini stack present, am I calling this flop with 99?

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  • 5 left with a mini stack present, am I calling this flop with 99?

    HAND DETAILS - $5+$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament

    Position Name Stack
    MP 8,995,884 (36 bb)
    CO Hero 7,774,419 (31.1 bb)
    BTN 7,961,090 (31.8 bb)
    SB 18,644,302 (74.6 bb)
    BB 2,224,305 (8.9 bb)

    Players: 5
    Blinds 125k/250k antes 100k

    Preflop: Hero is CO with 9 of clubs 9 of diamonds

    MP raises to 750,000, Hero raises to 1,375,000, 3 folds, MP calls 625,000

    Flop: (3,250,000) 6 of diamonds 5 of hearts 6 of clubs (2 players)
    MP checks, Hero bets 1,625,000, MP raises to 7,595,884


    The stats I have for opponent are irrelevant because he had picked up the tempo considerably for the final table bubble & FT. I hadn´t played many hands with this guy but at the time the change in style to LAG indicated a good player, which indeed he was.

    My 3 bet size was meant to be 1,875,000, I guess I mis-clicked and didn´t check it.

    He really puts me to the test on that flop. The pot is huge I only need 30% equity but we have a 9bb stack present. I still have to call, right?

  • #2
    I take it you are in the money? Are there any significant pay jumps?


    • #3
      Yes, 200 got paid, this was the FT where for jumps were decent, 9th was $70. From memory the others that are relevant are:

      5th $350
      4th $500
      3rd $700
      2nd $900
      1st $1250
      Last edited by mymindisblank; 10-20-2016, 09:36 AM.


      • #4
        If you fold, your equity is 637.25. If you call and lose, your equity is $350. If you call and win, your ICM increases to $946.84. So in equity you are risking $287.25 to win $309.59 in equity. So your equity odds are 1.07:1. Therefore, you need 48.3% equity to make this call.
        Last edited by jjpregler; 10-20-2016, 11:45 AM.


        • #5
          Thanks JJpregler. Where did the 637.25 come from? I figured out the others but not the 637.25?

          So I need to factor in ICM, of course, come on brain wake up, told you my mind is blank!!

          For easy calculation at the table can I adjust my pot odds by 1.7 to allow for ICM at it´s highest because that would give me 30%*1.7=51% equity needed. Of course, use a sliding scale of ICM adjustment where the pay jumps are less significant? For my own EV calculations I usually use 1.5 as a maximum, per your formula.


          • #6
            For the sake of active discussion, as anyone just calling pre here?

            I understand that we are probably ahead of Villains range, but the stack sizes are pretty awkward for this hand. More importantly, there are ICM factors involved with a player sitting right on the Red Zone (Harrington's zone for shoving basically any 2 cards when folded to).

            Shoving is an option pre I guess, but I feel we only get called by hands that dominate us or are flipping and that is never good in this situation.

            Raising against a described (good player/LAG) - even though we have position - is building the pot and putting us in many difficult situations post flop as they are more than likely going to be able to apply tons of pressure with ICM involved.

            Calling, keeps the pot small and will allow us to not only see a flop, but call a c bet on most board textures and react to the turn while in position without risking a ton of chips in the process. Some may argue we are not getting odds to set mine, but this really is not set mining as this hand will be doing well against many flops compared to Villains range.

            Another reason I would consider calling pre is the reason OP is asking the question. I simply would not know what to do if I 3 bet, then c-bet committing this much of my stack on what seems like a favorable board. Even boards like J x x, or Q x x, or even T x x and villain makes this play puts us in a very tough spot.


            • #7
              mymindisblank -

              This is a similar spot to the A7o hand from your previous post, as we have a hand that is too good to fold preflop, but too weak to call a 4 bet with. So preflop, I think this is 95% flat, 5% shove, or somewhere close to that.

              On the flop as played, we have an SPR of ~2, so there isn't a ton of maneuverability, but also not a lot of need to build a pot to set up a value shove at any point. Have you constructed any sort of a range for him in this spot? What are his value check raises here? Wouldn't he be 4 bet shipping a large portion of his bigger pairs preflop? So now we need to figure out what hands make sense. It's possible he has a 6, but there are already 2 out, so it's less likely. Add in the fact that vs a 3 bet, any 6 is the nuts, and I would think that a good lag player would want to keep your entire range in the hand. So we now have bluffs, semi-bluffs, and incorrect value shoves as his most probable range. 22-88(possibly through TT, but improbable IMO), AXs, ATo, AJo, broadway hands, 57s, 78s, 89s, and maybe if he's really tricky we can throw in one combination of AA. Stoving that range gives me:

              --- PokerStove analysis ---

              board: 6c6d5h

              distribution equity win shares tie shares
              9c9d 72. 961% 137212.00 28.50
              22,33,44,55,... 27.039% 50831.00 28.50

              distribution info:
              Hero: 9c9d

              Villain: 22,33,44,55,66,77,88,TT,AcAs,65s,75s,76s,86s,87s,9 8s,JT,QT,KT,QJ,KJ,KQ,A2s,A3s,A4s,A5s,A6s,A7s,A8s,A 9s,AT,AJ,AQ

              computation info:
              0.050 seconds
              337,323,898 games
              6,798,554,890 games/sec

              Note that I pulled this range out of my a**, since I know nothing about the villain.

              If this is anywhere close to his actual range, then we have a pretty clear call here.


              • #8
                Originally posted by mymindisblank View Post
                Thanks JJpregler. Where did the 637.25 come from? I figured out the others but not the 637.25?

                So I need to factor in ICM, of course, come on brain wake up, told you my mind is blank!!
                1) I ran the stacks as they would be at this point in the hand if you folded. I subtracted the blinds and antes from the inactive stacks, subtracted how much you put in to the pot and added all the win to the MP1 stack.

                2) When you have actual ICM calculations, use them and don't use ICM factor. ICM factor is just used when you have to make estimates and cannot get actual ICM calculations.


                • #9
                  rainbow flop I make this call faster than he snaps off my bet, If i dont plan to call off here, i check this flop back, but Im looking to get this in at first opportunity, a spot is a spot kind of thing, I just dont think he flatting me pf with the goods, so im never bet-folding this flop its what i wanted

                  also if this guy does RR me PF, it goes all in PF
                  Last edited by OutTaGetMe; 10-20-2016, 07:01 PM.


                  • #10
                    Have you constructed any sort of a range for him in this spot?

                    Capable of shoving this spot with oesd, any 5, & 7´s 8´s and gutshot oc combo´s although tbh I thought he may have applied the ICM pressure to me pre flop with any mid pair except KK/AA & maybe QQ´s where I felt he would have called to keep me in.

                    What are his value check raises here?

                    Few, generally he wouldn´t do this with a 6´s or AA´s KK´s. His value here imo are for hands that need protection - A5,K5,75, 77,88 (10´s JJ´s QQ´s if he flatted).

                    Wouldn't he be 4 bet shipping a large portion of his bigger pairs preflop?

                    Yes, except perhaps the AA or KK.

                    had no idea what he made of my odd 3bet size! Did he think it was small so I could get away from my hand or super strong. I had been fairly tight because we had an excellent LAG with a big stack, 1 good TAG/SLAG & 1 excellent LAG & me who had mid stacks and a nitty shortie. It wasn´t a run over for sure!

                    I 3 bet pre flop mainly to look super strong and to stop the other LAG calling along as I don´t think 99´s play well postflop multiway. My intention was to fold to a 4 bet pre even though it would have felt nitty vs LAG´s.

                    Anyway the upshot is, I thought generally vs his range I was good. But, he must have been aware of his aggro style and & my pot odds etc that there was a good chance he would be tricky and wouldn´t do this lightly. So I made a terrible fold! I couldn´t bear the thought of going out in 5th with the shortie present and I wanted to keep in the game with a playable stack and a chance to move up.

                    Looking at equilab i realise I shouldn´t have wimped out. Also, I should have had balls to take the risk because if I won I would have eliminated one of the 2 better players and had a decent stack to threaten the TAG with elimination with the shortie present. So, yes, there was a small chance of going out in 5th but a very real chance of at least 2nd!

                    The shortie busted wth KK´s in 5th & I busted in 4th when I shoved 77´s & 15bb and got called by A3s.

                    Another hand to chalk upto experience.

                    Thank you all.