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Stone Cold Bubble HH

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  • Stone Cold Bubble HH

    Probably standard but we will see.

    Hero 36BB
    V probably over 70BB

    Hand for hand on the bubble

    3000/6000/6000

    UTG1 opens to 14000
    Hero 9h9c calls and we go HU.

    Flop 8c4c5x

    V bets 15,000
    H raises to 40,000
    V almost instantly ships it

    I know the V a little bit as we have played a few times. I know that he understands the ICM pressure. I was also nearly certain he wouldn't
    do this with an over pair, he knows what he's doing. Meaning he would be more likely to call with an over rather than pay my sets and
    flopped straights off so easily.

    So he either has a set or a big draw. Sets are hard to hit so I'm leaning heavily towards the FD.

    I consider this for 20-30 seconds.

    Assuming we are leaning more likely on a draw than not what is our play?

  • #2
    Would he lead with 67? Unlikely. This is a flop he should be checking as he now doesn't have the range avantage but could just be cbetting.
    55 and 44 less likely utg+1.
    Could be 88, could be a draw, could be overcards like AJ-AK?
    Are you raising for protection here given your stack size?
    I think I might even raise this preflop on this situation.
    As played and given read, it's a call I think

    Comment


    • kkep
      kkep commented
      Editing a comment
      Yes, I raised for equity denial as my hand is going to be ahead of about 85% of his continuation range.

      I didn't raise pre-flop bc there were a couple of shorter stacks but not super short that could easily be going all in that would be putting me in a crappy spot. 99 is near the bottom of my calling off range here so when I called I new I was going to be a nit and fold to additional pre-flop pressure.

      Also I think calling with 99 facing an early position open is standard.

  • #3
    On the stone bubble facing a raise with the lowest overpair I do not want to go broke here Starting with 36 BB

    On the flop i am calling here and proceed carefully , cautious bubble play

    this is not a Chip ev Spot , outside the bubble considering your range you gave him I am willing to call off reluctantly

    on the stone bubble reaching a payout spot has lots of value

    you always Need to choose the line with the most expected value icm considerations included
    Last edited by Guido; 09-08-2019, 08:32 AM.

    Comment


    • #4
      Not a fan of x/r on the stone cold bubble against an EP opener and C-bettor on this board. I get the whole equity denial thing, I just don't think this is the time and place for it. I am trying to keep a small pot in this spot. I would prefer the call on the flop and see what develops on the turn.

      It would be hard to completely rule out over pairs here. You have a lot of draws in your range and villain could be protecting and putting you to the test. But I don't know this villain.

      As played this is an easy fold on the bubble.

      Comment


      • #5
        Agree with the group. On the bubble I am never raising the flop.

        I might not raise it that often in a non bubble situation.

        Comment


        • #6
          So I would normally never c/r 99 vs a C-bet from an early position open.

          But I had two big stacks to my immediate right that were applying constant pressure as we were approaching the bubble
          and now on the bubble.

          So in my mind they are c-betting 100% of their range and it was either raise or fold on the flop bc they are almost certainly
          going to barrel again on either the turn or river and my hand isn't likely to improve.

          As it was the V was on a draw and he was ahead lol. As I mentioned I know him a little bit so I mucked 99 face up and he
          showed Ac6c giving him a slight edge.

          Comment


          • #7
            If you think his range consists of sets and flush draws only you should absolutely fold. You're near dead against the sets, and the flush draws you're practically in a flip with depending on how many overs, straight, or two-pair/trips outs they have, which is pretty much every flush draw hand since your pair is so middling. I'm not entirely convinced he doesn't have overpairs here too given it's the bubble, but it doesn't much matter as they're equivalent to sets against your hand. Good fold, bad xr.
            Last edited by reeeeeeper; 09-08-2019, 06:06 PM.

            Comment


            • #8
              I can be stubborn...

              JL -
              I would just call the flop. Raising will result in the opponent jamming and calling lots of better made hands and draws, although it is tough to know which. While raising does get unpaired hands to fold, that isn't a huge success because they are all drawing somewhat thin.

              Comment

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