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Can we make a big fold in a $1650 main event?

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  • Can we make a big fold in a $1650 main event?

    Ignored some classic Jonathan Little advice and satellited my way into the HPT $1650 here outside Chicago this weekend.

    H TT P UTG2 S ~27k B 100/200

    UTG1 Opens to 700. Up until recently I would always 3B in this spot but our charts have us calling most of our range EP vs EP. Through the majority of two 40 minute levels this player had not opened much at all, so I didn't see a good reason to deviate from that strategy. I flat. MP calls right behind me and BB calls too.

    Flop (2900) AcAsJ checks around

    Turn (2900) Tc checks to UTG1 who bets 1200. I raise to 3600. MP cold calls. BB folds and now UTG1 makes it 8700.

    Both the cold call and now the 4b are concerning, as either player could've slowplayed AJ, JJ or AT on the flop. UTG1 also did not look happy before putting in his reraise, which I perceived as strength. Both players appear to be recs though so there are certainly combos of KQ, AK, AQ that would/could play this way too. I call. MP calls.

    River (29,000) 7c UTG1 bets 13,300. Backdoor clubs didn't slow him down which you'd think would happen at least some percentage of the time with a lot of the combos we beat, though I guess they do simultaneously add a few flush combos we beat if he was really getting after it on turn.

    I'm hating life and am expecting to lose a large percentage of the time, but we have to call 13,300 to win 55,600. We don't close the action though and MP could stick around too. Call or fold?

  • #2
    Discount a bit AT since you have TT.
    i just don't see how you can fold this. The flush draw is unlikely unless they had another A or J on the flop and picked up a draw on the turn.
    sucks but I think you have to call, you could easily be just against trips or a straight.

    Also what's wrong with satellites? As long as you know how to play them differently when near ITM...
    Last edited by Bentley; 09-02-2019, 11:33 AM.

    Comment


    • reeeeeeper
      reeeeeeper commented
      Editing a comment
      I don't think this guy's re-raising KQ on the turn against a raise and cold-call on a paired board. AK maybe given he has outs if wrong.

    • RealJPB
      RealJPB commented
      Editing a comment
      Jonathan on satellites: https://youtu.be/sugdlTqAy68

      His points are valid but playing bigger tournaments is exciting!

  • #3
    Bets, gets raised, cold called, and decides to re-raise 2.5x vs 2 players. Flop has paired top card, turn has straight, river has flush, two players seemed interested and he decides to lead just under half pot. You'd think a blocking bet would be smaller especially given stacks (assuming you're effective). You have the second worst full house. This isn't a tricky to read board. He's a tight rec ("Through the majority of two 40 minute levels this player had not opened much at all,"), this is a value bet. There are 11 combos (AA, AJ, AT, JJ) that beat you, not sure how many others value bet here. You unblock AK and AQ, but what is MP tagging along with, and is UTG1 really doing this with AQ? There's a player to act. Are you good here against both players 20% of the time? I'm not sure you're good here against UTG1 alone 20% of the time. It's a conditional probability problem based on the line. This is a fold IMO, albeit a difficult one that I'm not sure I'd be able to make in the heat of the moment.
    Last edited by reeeeeeper; 09-02-2019, 12:14 PM.

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    • #4
      My first instinct was to call it off bc I'm not good enough to fold. Then I talked myself into a fold but in the back of my mind I keep hearing JL
      say how much of a calling station he is. Thinking about MDF etc.

      It sure does feel like the right spot to make a big fold. Also at $1600 I would be playing to tight which is why I don't play those stakes. But in
      my comfort zone of $600 or less I'm calling this all day long and firing another bullet if I have to.

      So I should probably be doing the same regardless of stakes...

      I think these are reasonable ranges -

      http://www.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: JhAsAcTc7c
      Equity Win Tie
      UTG 22.25% 21.87% 0.38% { AA, JJ, A4s+, KQs, ATo+, KQo }
      MP1 53.07% 53.07% 0.00% { TT }
      MP3 24.69% 24.31% 0.38% { JJ, AQs-A4s, KQs, AQo-ATo, KQo }


      As reeeeeeper said we should consider the main V probably isn't raising with a straight but I'll let him keep the nut straight draw.

      http://www.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: JhAsAcTc7c
      Equity Win Tie
      UTG 32.21% 31.66% 0.55% { AA, JJ, A4s+, KcQc, ATo+ }
      MP1 47.37% 47.37% 0.00% { TT }
      MP3 20.42% 19.87% 0.55% { JJ, AQs-A4s, KQs, AQo-ATo, KQo }





      Last edited by kkep; 09-02-2019, 12:26 PM.

      Comment


      • #5
        As an aside, when you have made final tables in big field MTTs (1,000, 2,000+) - how many big folds did you make?
        I'm going to venture not many or maybe just one along the way (maybe multi way and you saw the other two Vs cards).
        Of the few final tables I have made (probably donkaments at between $20-$50 online hahah) I seemed to get there either by making good cards, being lucky once or twice along the way, or all my big hands holding up.
        I'm sure you can get there by dodging these situations but it's more likely if you get into this situation that it's just not your tournament.
        That's food for thought, maybe you need to make big folds the tougher the tourney?
        Last edited by Bentley; 09-02-2019, 03:59 PM.

        Comment


        • reeeeeeper
          reeeeeeper commented
          Editing a comment
          The tougher the tourney the more big calls you probably need to make. In this particular situation, against two recs on this line, I don't think you should call. In general, I agree with you and think you should often call to realize your equity. I certainly don't fault a call here at all! The strength of the hand and the odds justify it absolutely.

      • #6
        So how did this play out?

        Comment


        • #7
          JL reviewed this hand yesterday but why is it 1/2 and not a tourny and positions are a bit different? Is this just a coincidence? ....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GlCd...ature=youtu.be
          Last edited by kkep; 09-04-2019, 07:56 AM.

          Comment


          • jamtay317
            jamtay317 commented
            Editing a comment
            yes, he did, but it's basically the same. If the guy who 4bet is a nit Hero should fold. I have to say that I don't know if I could fold this, it would be hard.

          • RealJPB
            RealJPB commented
            Editing a comment
            Just watched this too. Interestingly enough in his twitter response to me he advocated folding turn! Ultimately I don’t think I had enough info on the player to know how tight he was being or whether or not he could overvalue.

        • #8
          Haha I didn't even realize it was this hand when I was watching it. Nice catch! I think he changed it to a cash game because that's what his webinar was on and he thought it was a good hand to review. Also it makes the bet sizing easier to digest for teaching (10, 30, 60).

          Now, a big part of my fold analysis was that I didn't think a rec would be making any sort of play with this small re-raise against two players and such an easy to read board. However, JL made a good point that I overlooked... without more info about the rec, we don't know if he's so n00b that he thinks any Ace is the nuts here! So he's right of course, just saying "rec" and "hasn't played many hands" isn't enough to make a big fold here because a rec also might think trips is the nuts.

          So RealJPB , do you have any other info about the players? If not, JL has changed my mind and I don't think you can fold here without other info.

          Comment


          • kkep
            kkep commented
            Editing a comment
            Right good call, JL changed it and he also said it was a hypothetical situation at one point. Not sure why he changed the H position but it's insignificant anyway. While I was watching the vid I thought I remembered JPB being on the BB, which of course he wasn't.

          • RealJPB
            RealJPB commented
            Editing a comment
            I caught it the second TT came up on the screen lol. I really don’t think I had enough info. I perceived opponent as tight but small sample size, no showdowns. Really hard to say whether or not he’ll overvalue here.

        • #9
          Thanks for the responses. As revealed in the webinar, villain had AJ. Really hard to know if he overvalues KQ or worse often enough.

          Annoying subplot, MP had AK. If he just 3bets pre or bets flop I can potentially get off the hook. He said “I hate AK I never raise that hand.”

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