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Flop decision near final table

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  • Flop decision near final table

    Hero is 6/19 in chips approaching Final table, Villain has me covered. We are the 2 big stacks on our table - 7 handed
    Villain has played pretty straightforward for nearly 100 hands so no reason to think he is getting out of line and he hasn't really bullied the table since becoming biggest stack.

    Villain raises 2.5bb (43bb) utg, everyone folds to me Btn (34bb), I call KsJs, SB folds, BB calls - pot = 9bb

    Flop Qs, 9s, 5h

    BB checks, Villain bets 6bb, action is on me

    How would you play the remainder of the hand at this stage of the tournament with final table looming and ICM implications?

    1. Passively and just call to see the Turn and reassess or
    2. Aggressively and raise the flop bet with the big draws to get V to fold now or build the pot (even with the small chance V may have the nut flush draw so I could effectively have far less outs than expected)

    In the moment I was very confused. I felt that if I called, my hand is face up (although I suppose I could have a Q) but if I raise and he shoves I don't want to be forced off my equity.
    His bet size also makes it difficult to raise without being pot committed and having to call off if he shoves. Even if I click it back its still over 1/3 of my chips.
    I also have the BB to think about and he has only recently joined the table so I have no knowledge of how he plays at all.

    So what would you do?

  • #2
    If you're ITM... easy jam. You're playing for the top spot and this is a huge draw. With these stack sizes you have fold equity. Villains bet makes a 3 SPR pot anyhow, he should be jamming. Either way you're priced in against most hands.

    Comment


    • #3
      Final table bubble of sorts.
      An over bet shove here will look like a draw but you have 12 immediate outs and maybe even the king.
      I'm trying to see if there's a raise size on the flop that would allow you to shove all in on the turn.
      If you raise and he shoves, it's a call.
      If you raise and he calls, shove the turn but the raise must allow the turn bet to be around pot sized for fold equity. Though I can't see him folding top pair if he has it.

      I think the other stack sizes matter here. Do you have them?

      Comment


      • Simon B
        Simon B commented
        Editing a comment
        Hey Bentley

        I don't have a record of the exact stack sizes but I remember the 3 stacks between utg and myself all short (under 15bb) and the blinds behind me had around 25bb each

    • #4
      You don't want to be knocked out, but he doesn't want to lose his big stack.

      You're ahead in raw equity against his opening range:
      ​66+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, ATo+, KJo+​
      ​​​If you jam you also have max fold equity. In actuality...

      He calls with:
      QQ+, 99, AQs, KQs, JTs, AQo, KQo (though in this spot he might fold a couple of those incorrectly)
      Which is 33% of the above opening range.
      Your hand is about a coin-flip against his calling range (49:51)
      He's folding 67% of the time which picks you up 15BBs, 50% stack increase.
      ​​​​​​Let's ignore the BB as negligible since he's only calling with 55 and Q9 and mayyybe if he called pre with Q5s. He also has a shorter stack.

      So your equity for jamming is:

      0.67*15BB + 0.33*(0.49*(31.5+9)BB - 0.51*31.5BB)

      +11.3BB

      That's huge.

      However those percentages assume 100% c-bet. If instead he only c-bets:
      QQ+, 99, AQs-A9s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AQo-ATo, KJo+
      Then he's calling with 45% of that, so jamming equity becomes...

      +5.4BB

      Still pretty big.

      I think you should jam.
      Last edited by reeeeeeper; 08-31-2019, 07:51 PM.

      Comment


      • #5
        I Call here for sure and reassess the situation later.
        you dont want to make icm suicide vs the other bigstack here for no good reason.

        also even peeling a K might be good .

        also you are dominating a lot of villians draws

        if you hit a straight or flush villian might put you on having peeled with a 9, QQ, TT or JJ Type of Hand.

        It would be a Complete avoidable Disaster if utg forces you off your very strong equity and As you said the other villian is also a consideration.

        Also utg is rather tight , your fold equity decreases therefore . this is not the place for Heros aggressive move

        Comment


        • reeeeeeper
          reeeeeeper commented
          Editing a comment
          He hasn't given any info about payouts, it's impossible to consider ICM for this question without that info.

        • Simon B
          Simon B commented
          Editing a comment
          Hey reeeeeeper

          This was an $11 deepstack on Partypoker and the payouts were:
          1. $1339
          2. $952
          3. $643
          4. $433
          5. $306
          6. $221
          7. $158
          8. $110
          9-12 $88
          13-16 $67
          17-20 $52

      • #6
        But at least he has mentioned ICM so I suppose it plays a role

        Comment


        • #7
          Guido probably has the right approach as he is much more of a tournament specialist. However, to me, all the payouts from 20th to 6th look about the same. I'd be aiming for top 5 in this tourney. So yes, you could call and re-evaluate, you have enough equity for one card, and might even be able to bluff him off better on a scare card that doesn't help you (like the board pairs the 9 or something). Still, increasing your stack by 50% is huge, and doubling huger as far as getting you one of those top 5 spots. I wouldn't mind flipping a coin for a stack like that.

          Comment


          • #8
            From a balance perspective we probably have a bunch of a lower equity / lower showdown value hands we'd want to consider raising with first. Don't know what your exact range would be so this is using an approximation of the 40bb chart.


            We need a few more bluff combos, so KJ and KT seem to be great candidates with so much equity and we can still protect our checking range by calling with the Axss and other Kxss if you have them.

            Comment

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