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$2/3 NLHE Top & Bottom BB Special

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  • $2/3 NLHE Top & Bottom BB Special

    V1 UTG+1 $200
    V2 BU $350
    Hero BB $450

    Hero K2o BB

    UTG limps
    V1 raises to 15
    MP calls
    V2 calls
    SB calls
    Hero calls (getting over 8:1)
    UTG calls

    Pot 85
    Flop K62r

    Checks to V2 on BU bets 30
    SB folds
    Hero raises to 90
    UTG folds
    V1 cold-calls
    MP folds
    V2 calls

    Pot 355
    Turn (K62)Qr
    V1 has 90 left behind
    V2 has 250 left behind
    Hero covers

    Hero ?

    ​​​​​​Action on previous streets analysis?

    Given live read that V1 comfortable and V2 not?

  • #2
    No brainer c/r on the flop and I like a check call on the turn and bluff catching the rest of the way.
    We don't need a bet here to get stacks in and we could be up against a set or a better 2 pair now.

    If the turn checks around I'm probably leading on the river for max value, 250.
    I'm bluffing catching if an A J T 9 hits river

    I don't know how comfortable either V is but I feel like they both have something they like and I think we are almost always still ahead.
    Last edited by kkep; 08-31-2019, 01:49 PM.

    Comment


    • #3
      Pot is $355 and hero has $350 behind. We check raised the flop to take the lead, so I would continue betting here all-in. We lose to sets and KQ, and can get value from Kx and draws, though there aren't very many draws.

      Comment


      • kkep
        kkep commented
        Editing a comment
        The V's stacks are $90 and $245 so we are effectively going all in for $245.

        I don't see the $90 stack ever folding a Kx on the turn but the $250 stack may be able to get away from a marginal Kx hand and he is my main target..

        Also it's unlikely all 3 players in this hand have a K.yet all seem to like their hands enough to have gone this far.

        Maybe I'm to passive (I probably am) but I don't like my hand enough to jam $245 on the turn.

        What can we reasonably expect 2 players to call with when we go all in?

        We have the only K rag combos K2 K6 and the worst one anyway.

        Maybe one V has AK KQ KJ KT K9s idk maybe K8s.

        Maybe the other V is slow playing AA or they might just have that set of 6's and it is possible but most unlikely that they have the last K in the deck.

        So at this point the reality is we very well could have the 2nd best hand and sometimes the worst hand yet it's still a very strong bluff catcher. It's also possible that we get called by worse and they suck out on the river.

        The way this hand has played out I think we want those 2 pair K rag combos in our checking range and we can still go for value on the river whenever the turn gets checked around and we get a favorable river draw.

    • #4
      I'm going to agree with kkep on this one. In game, I did just put my chips in, got called by V1 and V2 folded. But it got me thinking about the possible outcomes given stacks and where I thought the strength was. Play along...

      ---

      Hero jams

      Bad, 20% chance?
      Hero jams, V1 calls, V2 calls. In this situation Hero is likely dead.
      ​​​​​
      Bad, 75% chance?
      Hero jams, V1 calls, V2 folds. Since V1 cold-called the flop check-raise Hero is still likely dead given the dry flop. Even if not, there's no side-pot.

      Ok, 20% chance?
      Hero jams, V1 folds, V2 calls. V2 probably has KQ? If not, maybe he's just loosey-goosey and Hero is in good shape.

      Good, 2% chance?
      Hero jams, V1 & V2 fold. Great, but a fluke. What was V1 doing?

      ---

      Hero checks

      Good, 80% chance?
      Hero checks, V1 jams, V2 calls or folds, Hero jams, V2 calls or folds. Here, if there's a side-pot, V2 might have felt roped into it and Hero's hand could easily be good for the side-pot refund at least. And here we possibly get V2 roped into that side-pot that he wouldn't have if Hero jams, V1 calls and V2 folds. If no side pot, it's pretty the same situation as if Hero had jammed anyway.

      Good, 15% chance?
      Hero checks, V1 checks, V2 jams, Hero calls, V1 calls or folds. Hero V2 could be very wide and again Hero has a good chance to at least get the side-pot, if not be in good shape for the whole pot of V1 for whatever reason folds.

      Good, 10% chance?
      Checks around, Hero jams river. In this case, either player might call with a slowplayed premium or a strong hand that Hero beats.

      ---
      ​​​​​
      So basically it seems to me that all of the scenarios where Hero checks are better than if Hero jams. I don't really see any reasonable draws that make it to the turn like this except maybe a couple from V2 which I'm ok getting money in against with only 1 card to come in a cash game.

      So yeah, Hero checks turn I think is the play.

      In game, V1 had KK top-set and Hero was dead, the side-pot would have been a nice potential refund.
      Last edited by reeeeeeper; 09-01-2019, 02:09 PM.

      Comment


      • #5
        All good points, and I agree check is the best option here.

        Comment


        • #6
          I'm open to the idea that this isn't the most +EV, but even getting those odds I'm just folding pre here.

          Comment


          • reeeeeeper
            reeeeeeper commented
            Editing a comment
            This is probably the best approach. Still, I like trying to figure out what you'd do in situations like these as you sometimes get into them anyway.

          • RealJPB
            RealJPB commented
            Editing a comment
            For sure. Doesn't make it not worth talking about.
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