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AK on the flop in a multi-way pot

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  • AK on the flop in a multi-way pot

    Learning a lot, but a lot to learn! First post, just a quick note of thanks to J. Little. After 20 years and some success, I was one of those saying the game is dying, and what are these kids freaking doing? My eyes have been opened, and NL Hold'em is fun again! And profitable. One more note: Even after torching this hand, I still manged to bag second for $1500 in this tourney last night. I even had way the best of it on the last hand heads up for all the marbles. So it goes. . .

    Early in 120 buy-in at the local casino. Effective stacks about 15k, blinds 50-100. UTG+1 limps, hero raises to 400 from CO with AKo. SB, BB, and limper call. Pot is 1600.
    Flop: 367 rainbow. All check to hero. What's the play?

    Over the board, I did not see much of a range advantage and certainly not a nuts advantage, and a marginal made hand. So I check behind.

    However, assigning some ranges, I get an unexpected (to me) result.
    UTG+1: 99-33,A8s-A2s,KJs+,QTs+,J9s+,T8s+,ATo-A9o,KTo+,QTo+,JTo - 14.9%
    CO (Hero): 99+,AJs+,AKo - 4.5%
    SB: 99-22,AJs-A2s,K9s+,Q9s+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,ATo-A7o,KJo,QJo - 15.7%
    BB: 99-22,AJs-A2s,K2s+,Q7s+,J8s+,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,43s,32s ,AJo-A2o,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T8o+,97o+,87o,76o - 37.4%

    This shows hero to have about 40% equity with the rest split fairly evenly among the other players. I see now that this is due to all my overpairs. Clearly. Duh.

    So, with range advantage but no nuts advantage I should be about 1/3, maybe 550?

    Comments? Thought about the ranges?

    TIA,
    Dan

  • #2
    I think you have a range avantage there because your range still includes big pairs.
    if everyone checks to me here, I'm usually betting anyway unless they are tricky players.
    Last edited by Bentley; 08-30-2019, 06:04 PM.

    Comment


    • #3
      In a 4 way pot I am going to be checking this 9 times out of 10.

      I don't think we need to have a bluffing range at all in this situation - the concept of diminishing fold equity renders it fairly futile anyway.

      If I wanted to have some bluffs in my range, I'd be looking at my suited Ax for the backdoor flush potential. AKo functions fine as a marginal made hand and can be checked.

      If you want to bet your AKo, is it a bluff or for very thin value? It doesn't seem to fit well into either category and that's never a good idea.

      [EDIT: If I was to ignore all my comments above and fire off a bet, I do like your sizing )

      Comment


      • #4
        I think the ranges you have applied to the villains could be much wider, espcially UTG+1. He's certainly limping with a very wide range and when getting good odds to close the action will likely continue a large % of the time.

        But, lets look at the range and nut advantages with the ranges you have selected.


        Click image for larger version  Name:	Hero.PNG Views:	0 Size:	330.6 KB ID:	23770


        Hero has the clear range advantage. The % of nut combos (overpair +) are as follows
        UTG+1 - 11.29%
        Hero - 60%
        SB - 12.11%
        BB - 7.49%

        As the ranges widen, hero's advantage grows so I would consider this worst case scenario. Whether or not you bet comes down to your opponents and how you think they'll react and play. If you bet 1/3 it only needs to work 25% of the time to be profitable and if you bet 1/2 it needs to work 33%.

        Since we're pretty deep stacked I'd be inclined to bet, especially on this very low/dry board. If the board was something like J89 w/ 2 suits I'd def check. Our hand is likely best and even though we have SDV we'd essentially be betting for value/protection. We dont want to give a free turn and let a hand like JT peel top pair. If we get called it's likely the turn will check to us at which time we can reasses and either continue betting or see a free river. However, this is all dependent on your opponents.
        Last edited by MrFuss; 09-05-2019, 01:34 PM.

        Comment


        • #5
          Thank you MrFuss, that is very instructive. It was unclear to me that we consider overpairs to be the effective nuts. But I get it now on this board. Makes me believe even more that a value/protection bet here is mandatory. Begs questions:

          - At what point is an overpair not the nuts?
          - I get that if I RFI and do not get 3-bet, then the premium pairs belong to me. That will surely give me a range advantage most of the time, but a nuts advantage?
          - What if the board were more middling and coordinated?

          I either slept through this part of class or haven't gotten to it yet

          BTW, which software is that? I'm still on PokerStove, but planning to upgrade in the not-too-distant future.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by MiracleManDan View Post
            - At what point is an overpair not the nuts?
            - I get that if I RFI and do not get 3-bet, then the premium pairs belong to me. That will surely give me a range advantage most of the time, but a nuts advantage?
            - What if the board were more middling and coordinated?
            Technically an overpair may not be "the nuts". On this board, 45 is the absolute nuts but no one has this hand in the ranges you selected. You have to consider the % of nut combos in a range.

            Here we have a strong range of 182 combos.

            Click image for larger version

Name:	NA1.PNG
Views:	16
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ID:	23805

            Compared to a wide range of 528 combos.

            Click image for larger version

Name:	NA2.PNG
Views:	15
Size:	106.6 KB
ID:	23806

            The flop is Js, 9d, 7c
            Click image for larger version

Name:	NA3.PNG
Views:	14
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ID:	23807

            The tighter range has 29 possible nut combos out of the total of 182
            These 29 nut combos make up 15.93% of the total range (29/182)

            Click image for larger version

Name:	NA4.PNG
Views:	13
Size:	45.9 KB
ID:	23808




            The wide range has 44 nut combos out of the total 528
            These 44 combos make up 8.33% of the total range (44/528)

            Click image for larger version

Name:	NA6.PNG
Views:	14
Size:	45.2 KB
ID:	23809

            So, although the wide range has more possible nut combos, its less likely to be actually holding one. What dictates a nut hand is completely dependent on the board, the players ranges and previous actions. Ah, Ad probably isnt the nuts when the board is 5c, 6c, 7c, 8c.....

            Originally posted by MiracleManDan View Post
            BTW, which software is that?
            This is Flopzilla Pro https://www.flopzilla.com/

            Comment


            • #7
              Wow. That is outstanding. Isn't math awesome?

              Comment


              • #8
                Something to keep in mind regarding range advantage and nut advantage - at these low stakes your opponents are most likely not thinking about this. They are thinking "I have a pair" or "I could hit a gut-shot on the turn". Neither of which they will fold to a single, small bet.

                ABC poker works best at these levels. Don't get too caught up in range advantages and nut advantages against weaker opponents who are not on that level.

                You have A high on a somewhat connected board that favors the callers ranges that is multi-way. I like a check here with hopes to improve with an A or K on the turn.

                Comment


                • LondonImp
                  LondonImp commented
                  Editing a comment
                  Spot on...

                • MrFuss
                  MrFuss commented
                  Editing a comment
                  Yup great point. As usual, knowing your opponents is essential to implement a winning strategy.
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