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$250 $10k guaranteed tourney, Majestic Star Gary Indiana

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  • $250 $10k guaranteed tourney, Majestic Star Gary Indiana

    H- QcJd S-30k P-HJ Blinds 200-400-400BBA
    MP limps, I make it 1.5k, she calls. She seems to know a lot of different people at this room. She plays a limp/call style, doesn't fold to initial aggression often.

    F-Td Tc 4s
    She checks, I bet 1.6k Seemed like a safe board to C-bet. Is 2/3rd pot bet better here?
    Turn- As
    She leads for 2.5k. Wasn't really sure what to think about this. Seemed like an obvious card for her to bluff at. She has bet/folded prior but only on flop. First time I saw her lead into a raiser on the turn. I made it 8k... Thoughts?

  • #2
    are you prepared to put her all in on river ??? If so , at least u have a fighting chance... what's her stack ?

    Comment


    • TAJ1827
      TAJ1827 commented
      Editing a comment
      She had me covered but barely. Not sure about the river play? Again, I really need to get better at planning my hands as opposed to playing all by instinct or feel or blind dumb luck. I will continue to work on that.

    • CrazyEddie
      CrazyEddie commented
      Editing a comment
      that's desecrating feel/instinct

      Based on " she seems to know a lot fo people at the room " , I don't like the play. She will get u eventually.

    • CrazyEddie
      CrazyEddie commented
      Editing a comment
      changed my mind

      I like the play. She is obviously better than you. If you play a sensible game, you don't stand a chance. This way may be better.

  • #3
    Yes, 2k would be a better bet. when she leads, this is often a draw or a strong made hand like Tx not knowing how to play out of position. with that said you are blocking some draws making her less likely to have KJ KQ JQ. I would probably just fold here, I don't really like the 8k bet because she seems like a calling station so I just don't think that it's going to get folds that often. and you need to get a fold about 50% of the time for it to be profitable. I am going to add her possible range to Flopzilla and see if we think that she is folding 50% of the time.

    Click image for larger version

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    on the flop you can see she is folding out alot of her junk.

    Click image for larger version

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    as you can see on the turn you have 7% equity versus what I would think here calling range would be.

    I think that when she calls the flop, and bets the turn you're just way behind.

    Comment


    • TAJ1827
      TAJ1827 commented
      Editing a comment
      Thanks for posting those charts! Flopzilla isn't something I'm overly familiar with but I think I'm able to understand that basics.

  • #4

    Comment


    • #5
      I think a small bet is perfect on the flop. In fact I down bet there often, something like 1000-1200.
      That is enough to fold out all of their garbage.

      I would just fold to anyone's lead there. Even when we hit a K we ain't loving life.

      I take her lead as having a Tx and hoping you hit an ace you can't get away from....

      Bluffing is fun when it works so

      It's not easy to flop 3 of kind so raising is a play worth considering but it doesn't have to be that
      big. A minish raise to like 5.5 will get most of her bluffs to fold and probably most of her Ax
      hands too. If she has a T, 4's full or a big Ace that she continues with your screwed so why put
      in the extra 6BB? I suppose she could continue with a gut shot but I doubt it so you're folding
      out some Kx that are ahead of you too. KsXs will probably peel. But we aren't trying to make her
      fold everything.

      I'm assuming the plan was to bluff turn and give up if called?


      So to recreate the entire hand. Say you down bet to 1200. Now when she leads turn it's
      reasonable to assume she would have bet 2000-2200 so you can raise to 4500. When called
      and giving up you saved about 10BB taking that line over your line.

      That's 4000 chips bro

      I'm not advocating that play but I do believe one line is much better than the other. We always
      need to be thinking about future streets....

      Comment


      • TAJ1827
        TAJ1827 commented
        Editing a comment
        That makes great sense. I would've given up on the river for sure here. There are a few areas I'm really focusing on and this hand illustrates one of the big ones, not being driven by results. I know this bluff worked this time but I want to understand better lines especially against most opponents in these types of tourneys.
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