Good instincts, or lack of thought?

[Andy Watson]

Hi all,

Not been around for a while- sorry! I will make more effort!

Would like some feedback on a hand I played. I know my thinking wasn't as clear as it should have been during the hand, but that my reasoning felt coherent. I'm trying to work out if I found the right line? Thought process in red.

S 200k
B 2500/5k/5k
P BB
H 84o

We are 28/about 200 on day 2 of a £200 regional competition. 20 get paid. I am in a comfortable spot as we start to approach the bubble.


Folds round to the CO, who limps. CO seems to be a weak player who likes to see a flop, and then over values marginal stuff. He has about 80k and is effective.

Button limps. Part of a large group of poker playing 20 somethings who have been playing all over in big UK games. Don't know him, but knew a lot of the people he knew.

SB folds.

I check my option with 84o. I don't think there is any option with this hand except to see the free flop, despite the weakness of the preflop play.

Flop is 8 8d 10d (Pot 22k)

I check, hoping to induce betting. This might be a mistake in a limped pot, I could have led out to start building a pot. There are few hands that beat me, and lots of worse that will call. However I am out of position throughout the hand.

CO checks.

Button bets 16k.

I call. I thought about check raising- but I think that looks really strong. I remember advice from JL about recreational players only raising strong hands. I've been card dead for hours, so haven't made a raise since he sat at the table. If I had been more active I would have check raised here.

Surprisingly the CO calls behind.

Turn: Qx (Pot 70k)

I check

CO checks

Button bets 35k

I call- continuing to tell my weak story with a hand I expect to be best.

CO again surprisingly calls.

River 5x (Pot 175k)

I check.

CO checks

Button bets 50k.

I call. Although I have trips, I recognise this hand isn't that strong for such a big pot. I don't need to turn it into a bluff as it's too strong, but I don't think I would get called by worse. I think it's now a marginal hand.

CO calls and is all in.

Bet sizing/pot might be a little off due to fatigue!

[Guido]

Hi andy

i think i See several mistakes you did. Preflop no mistake also Checking Flop in sb multiways


mistake 1

when button bets you Need to raise here multiways, this is not a slowplay board , you want to discourage 9j, 79, every T or overpairs to hit later

mistake 2

side Note calling turn when 9j got there which could easily in both players range is no mistake

but mistake 2 to my mind is calling river when button bets (especially this kind of smallish value heavy ) into 2 marginal (as both oop players check river ) to Medium strong ranges

you cannot ignore against how many Hands you lose

9J (16 combos and you Block nothing) , all better 8s, like 8A, 87,88,,86,98 , 55, QQ ,TT

I think folding here is the best play on river

I Know you tried out snowie which advises beeing very tight multiways

[reeeeeeper]

River is a blank, not sure how you can fold to a strong player who could be going for thin value against what could be seen as marginal hands. Yes, there's a lot you lose to, but a lot you beat and the price is very good.

[reeeeeeper]

Welcome back, I'm going to respond to your red parts...

Preflop: Yes there's another option, raise to 32500 and take the dead money. Like you said, 84o doesn't play well post-flop, the weak player showed weakness and the strong player showed weakness and you're last to act. You have a really good chance to pick up 17500 no fuss. That said, checking is fine.

Flop: I often lead in limp pots when I hit since everyone showed weakness preflop there's no expected c-bet. Check-raising is fine but check-calling I'm not sure what the plan is. There are many hands you'd check-raise there other than the trips you have, so get some money in the pot! Also, by calling you give the CO's draws a good price to tag along. I'd rather get this heads-up and make decisions easier.

Turn: Still no check-raise, I think that's ok since a draw came in, but that's what I meant when I said I don't understand the plan here. Again giving CO a good price to draw.

River: Call is right, you can't raise here because you'll mostly be called by hands that beat you, or be put all in by hands that beat you.

One question: you don't raise your strong hands, what do you raise? And why would you expect those other raises work if someone notices you don't raise your strong hands?

[Guido]

@reeper when andy says what villian has you probably can understand why I fold river . Lets see what he exposes

[reeeeeeper]

That's not fair, people only post when they lose.

[Andy Watson]

Thanks for the thoughts so far- I will leave it unanswered for today and see if anyone else jumps in.

But- a couple of thoughts.

1) reeeeeeeeper. Yes, a preflop raise is an option I suppose. And it's possible in this spot given my previous inaction, I suppose. It only needs to work 50% of the time. But I hate doing it with 84o. I think that hand is just too weak. I want some equity if called.
2) Missing out on value is also a mistake!
3) If you advocate a check raise turn or flop, at least one of the players will call. How do you proceed given the cards that follow?

[reeeeeeper]

The Q is the only scare card, but that's part of the reason you check-raise. Thinning the field helps you to not worry about scare cards as much because you knock out the hands they'd help or not even worry about the cards that come in.

So let's say you check-raise to 40k, there are many situations where both players fold and you pick up 40k, that's not so bad. Let's say in others the CO folds and the BU calls. We have a 100k pot on the turn and 150k behind. I'm always going to follow this up, and here I'd probably downbet hard, like 25k or something. We want to charge draws but also keep in TX, QJ and the like. Then there's 150k on the river and you have 125k. You can again lead small or check call. Sometimes you're beat by a better 8X, which is pretty cold, or the J9. But since you bet in such a way to keep the marginal made hands in, the times you pick up the pot make up for those losses.

[jamtay317]

Hello Andy, I think that I'm a bit newer than you, but welcome back!

I think preflop checking is the only option here.

Flop: I do like a bet, you do have a very strong hand and you can have many draws in your range to as you can literally have any 2 cards. I understand that its the bubble which isn't a bad thing. If you get one caller that plays back at you well then you have to deal with that. I would probably bet something like 14,500 which would keep Ts in and J9 79 Ax diamonds, Kx diamonds

and possible some hands like 99 77 66.

If they fold well that is okay too.

As played I think check-raising is much more profitable then check-calling. I personly feel that check-calling you're in an awkward spot out of position on the turn.

Turn: As played, I think the Q isn't as bad of a card as you would think. yes J9 gets there, but with that said, this can help lots of other hands that you still beat. QT Q9 AQ KQ QJ. I do not think you should donk the Turn, but I do think that you should Check-Raise it. if for no other reason to get the CO out of the hand. I do still think that you're value betting here.

River. I'm assuming that the 5 was not a diamond. With that said, I still think this is a blank. now I guess pocket 5s get there. but I just think that you have the winning hand the majority of the time here. I do not mind check-calling the river to allow the other player to bluff.

[CrazyEddie]

playing too much hand , not enough situation ... no need to call with a loser on river

[Andy Watson]

[reeeeeeper]

It happens to all of us Looks like you took a good lesson from it, which is much more than most ever do.

Also, I want to be clear that I wasn't recommending to raise preflop all the time there, not even most of the time, maybe 5-10% of the time against the right limpers, ones that are very likely to limp weak and run away from a big bet. Also, I like that 84 has no value, then it's easy to give up when anyone calls. You don't get into any more trouble, just take your stab and give up if caught. I brought it up because of the way you phrased that checking was the only play, I disagreed and so was playing devil's advocate.

In any case, I appreciated your analysis. I need to go back over Tendler myself.