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Bluff or Bluff Catch

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  • Bluff or Bluff Catch

    I open Js9s for 3bb in CO. Button calls, BB raises to 5bb (this is low stakes online), we call.
    I exclude non-premium suited aces from his range after the 3!
    Pot 15bb
    Flop 6c4cKc
    BB checks
    I bet 8bb, button folds, BB calls
    Range estimate after he calls: 48% top p K; set/aces 15%; flush 10% (4 nut, 6 not); flush draw 41% (total greater than 100% cuz some pairs have flush cards)
    Turn:
    9h, giving me showdown equity. I check behind.
    River: 5s. Villain bets 22bb into 31bb pot
    Pot odds 53:22
    Villain has 75bb remaining, I cover

    I am going to violate the taboo against giving results, because in this case some interesting things are to be found.

    I called, having successfully elicited a bluff with my bluff catcher, and he took the pot with KsQs for a pair of kings.

    After going over it with Flopzilla, I realized how much of his calling range was paired kings, which can be targeted. And how few unimproved aces there were -- the only thing left to bluff catch against.

    Another way to play it:

    If I had continuation bet on the turn I would have maintained fold equity for a non-club river and kept pressure on his kings.

    If I went all-in on river, and he calls all flushes, sets, and AA, that's 25% of hands. He'll fold for sure 25% of hands which never improved. That leaves roughly 50% kings that are hating life. He'd have roughly 80bb remaining, so I'd be risking 80 to win around 50.

    The bluff would need to succeed about 62% of the time, requiring him to fold most of his his kings.

    My conclusion: this play is no good unless we have a strong read. Should have given up on the hand after the flop bluff was called. As played, I don't like the river call because he has few missed draws. Any disagreement?

    Another can of worms: we bluff a club river to fold his kings. Any merit to that? Or is his range after calling the flop just too strong to mess with?














  • #2
    You assume alot. If you move all in on river... he might bluff catch with his K , like you did with your 9.


    Either you play cards, if you have a hand ... or you play your opponent, do you know him well ? do you know him better than he knows you ?




    Comment


    • #3
      I think the better question (IMO) is why you’re betting flop 3 ways. This seems like an easy give up to me. You called pre getting great odds and completely whiffed flop. I’m always checking and mentally moving on to the next hand here.

      Comment


      • #4
        Since UG checked, it was closer to being a heads up situation. I often get folds in situations like this -- generally give up when it doesn't work. I certainly would have folded to a CB. I guess a better place to donk bluff would be if there were no high cards which hit the UG raiser so hard. If I'm going to bluff a high flop on a monotone board, I guess it should be against limping ranges.

        This isn't a routine play for me, but I expect a cold bluff should be tried on occasion.

        Comment


        • #5
          I think a bet there isn't the worst in the world ... but you had no plan how to take down that pot .. on a monotone board.

          I don't want to discourage people trying things...

          I think "mentally moving on to the next hand ( before this hand is over ) " is much worse.

          On this forum, you don't read about fighting for pots... only showing down , comparing cards.
          Last edited by CrazyEddie; 08-10-2019, 11:06 PM.

          Comment


          • RealJPB
            RealJPB commented
            Editing a comment
            I think fighting for pots is good, but I don’t see anything in his write up that makes me think think this is a good spot for it.
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