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  • Standard ugh

    My bust out hand in the Parx 500

    Level 10 800/1600/1600

    Hero Bu has the effective stack of about 45-46BB 73000+

    CO straightforward plays pretty much face up and has been to my right the entire day, 10 hours

    CO opens for 2.3125BB 3700
    H Bu AcQc decides to smooth call

    Flop 2c4s5c

    CO all in

    WTF he has done this at least 5 times today and every time showed an over pair or a good TPTK so we clearly know where we stand.

    H?
    Last edited by kkep; 08-09-2019, 06:16 AM.

  • #2
    Assuming no bubble implications I wouldn’t fold there but I’m hating every minute of calling. By my quick math you need 46% equity, I gave him a quick range of every pocket pair and a few combos of 5x and got 52%. Add in every A3 and you’re down to 50.

    It sounds like he probably doesnt play his absolute nuts here like this, so yeah you probably can’t fold.

    Comment


    • RealJPB
      RealJPB commented
      Editing a comment
      I'm confused too by what you mean by edge and odds. I'll show my work. 4k from the blinds + 73k + 73k = 150k total pot. You have ~69,300 back, so 69,300/150,000 = 46.2% You should want more equity than that since you're risking so much, but I'm not sure where you're getting 53% from.

    • kkep
      kkep commented
      Editing a comment
      I got 53% because I put the wrong numbers in the calculator. I'm going to blame it on being tired last night So we should want at least 50% equity vs their range to call it off?
      Last edited by kkep; 08-09-2019, 08:09 AM.

    • RealJPB
      RealJPB commented
      Editing a comment
      Yeah 50% sounds like a good cushion to me

  • #3
    I have fold in those similar Spots in the past playing live as I want to have fold equity when I have a draw that is clearly behind at the Moment

    and Ace high does not have enough Showdown value vs that big of a shove

    when he puts you allin you have Zero fold equity

    in Tournaments you want to err on the tight side in close spots , in cg you can call this , but for your Tournament Life?

    huge Aggression means most often Monster and you have SEEN no bluffs from him with similar Lines

    so when you fold you still have a nice middle stack

    i fold here

    Comment


    • kkep
      kkep commented
      Editing a comment
      Fold equity? In my mind it wasn't even close. I knew he had a pair but I was almost certain I was ahead, in fact the only combos I was behind were KK+ and I block AA.

      I understand when we lose we are out and that is a huge factor. However I feel like all things considered passing up spots like these are a fairly big error. That might be a flaw in my game and that is really what I'm asking you all....40 bigs is a lot to ship a on draw or is it really?

      I'm capable of changing my mindset but the evidence needs to be compelling.

      Board: 4s5c2c
      Equity Win Tie
      CO 42.89% 41.62% 1.26% { 88+ }
      BU 57.11% 55.85% 1.26% { AcQc }

      Board: 4s5c2c
      Equity Win Tie
      CO 43.57% 42.23% 1.33% { 99+ }
      BU 56.43% 55.10% 1.33% { AcQc }


      Board: 4s5c2c
      Equity Win Tie
      CO 41.91% 41.00% 0.91% { KK-99 }
      BU 58.09% 57.18% 0.91% { AcQc }


      Board: 4s5c2c
      Equity Win Tie
      CO 41.47% 40.56% 0.91% { KK-88 }
      BU 58.53% 57.62% 0.91% { AcQc }


      Board: 4s5c2c
      Equity Win Tie
      CO 47.37% 46.46% 0.91% { KK }
      BU 52.63% 51.72% 0.91% { AcQc }


      Board: 4s5c2c
      Equity Win Tie
      CO 45.45% 44.55% 0.91% { QQ }
      BU 54.55% 53.64% 0.91% { AcQc }


      Board: 4s5c2c
      Equity Win Tie
      CO 39.49% 38.59% 0.91% { JJ }
      BU 60.51% 59.60% 0.91% { AcQc }

  • #4
    I hate it but there's just no way I'm getting away from this.

    [EDIT: Wish you hadn't revealed villain's hand! Would've been a good one to discuss impartially.]

    Comment


    • kkep
      kkep commented
      Editing a comment
      I removed it but I'm not sure enough evidence isn't already out of the bag.

  • #5
    I think the pre-flop play is where the mistake begins. This should be a 3-bet pre a large percentage of the time.

    We have a top 4% hand.

    We are facing a LP open from a straight forward player who likely has an open range that we are well ahead of.

    Calling allows the blinds to come along cheaply and creates a multi-way pot.

    Take the initiative and put the pressure on the villain(s). I prefer making this 10-11k and proceeding from there.
    Last edited by JredA; 08-09-2019, 06:39 AM.

    Comment


    • kkep
      kkep commented
      Editing a comment
      I didn't mention this. The SB was a long time friend who happened to show up and get seated next to me. He wasn't getting involved with hands I was in unless he had a sweet hand. We weren't butting heads. The BB only had about 14BB

      Also I 3-bet plenty throughout the day and I was actually hoping to play a smallish type pot vs a V who could apply a lot of pressure on my stack. How did that go for me?

      BTW are you recommending a 3-bet fold to a 4 bet which due to my stack size would likely be for all of my chips? So I'm not calling for 1/2 my stack, all of my stack or 5 bet shoving.

      This dude wasn't ever opening light. He's 4 bet shoving (probably) all of his pairs and AK, calling with everything else.

      I was perfectly happy playing a pot IP with that hand vs this V.

    • JredA
      JredA commented
      Editing a comment
      Well, let's develop him an opening range...

      The standard opening range in this spot would be around 30% of hands.

      What does his opening range look like?

    • kkep
      kkep commented
      Editing a comment
      JredA I doubt it was even this wide and I'm not so sure he wouldn't have limped 77 and 88

      77+, A7s+, A5s, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo

  • #6
    I Know villians Hand already

    Comment


    • #7
      You only have 9 -7clean outs ×4

      7 coz 2 flush cards turn river can be full House cards
      Last edited by Guido; 08-09-2019, 12:18 PM.

      Comment


      • #8
        those %%% are based on assumptions ... and they don't account for future spots , if you pass up on this one.

        So .... what good are they ?


        What would a win here do for you ? is that going to propel you to ... ?

        Even with big stack , I see some people don't change their play ...

        for them, it isn't that useful.
        Last edited by CrazyEddie; 08-09-2019, 09:18 PM.

        Comment


        • kkep
          kkep commented
          Editing a comment
          Your riddle is why in part I asked. I'm not one that needs a big stack. I don't force the issue. That said this felt like one of those good spots in real time. After the fact when I have programs to look at it, it's a tiny bit closer than I would have liked.

          So of course I'm making assumptions, we never know with certainty what our opponent has and my brain isn't a computer.

          The real question is can we, should we pass on spots that we *think* we are ahead decently often enough for 40BBs, our tournament life or should we always pass up draws that we *think* are ahead of made hands?

          Good answers to these sorts of questions makes our decision making at the table much easier.

          The panel seems to be split

        • CrazyEddie
          CrazyEddie commented
          Editing a comment
          I liked the preflop flat with AQs ... On the flop, I would have gone with it ... but you seem ... upbeat about finding a better spot with effective stack 45 ??? Sure ....
          Last edited by CrazyEddie; 08-10-2019, 12:57 PM.

      • #9
        kkep

        77+, A7s+, A5s, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo

        This is a pretty snug range from the CO (18%) with and stack where they should be looking to get involved with decent hands and antes involved.

        I also find it interesting you give him A5s and not A6s or A4s. The hard part about ranging villains is to not necessarily give them the hands you would open, but coming up with a range that fits them as players. But this is a good starting point and when running this hand I would probably shade this to our "worse case" scenario. Meaning his tighter range.

        I would also do this analysis for a "best case" scenario, meaning his looser range.

        And then settle somewhere in the middle.

        So we have his range and now we can see how we compare.

        When constructing my ranges away from the table for spots like this, my guideline is to value 3 bet with he top 25% of the villains opening range, then construct my calling range and finally, my 3 bet bluff range.

        In this case the value range is the top 4.5% of hands.

        Now when we construct the rest of our range you mention you have a friend in the SB (should not matter) and a player with a 14bb stack in the BB. You do not mention how the BB plays or what their level is, but we have to be prepared in a way for them to jam. So in this spot I would either tighten up a bit or maybe 3-bet slightly more. But I would be less inclined to flat wide here. From the BB eyes, he would see a late position open and a call and might think its a good spot to jam a little wide.

        On top of that (and I just now realized this, I thought we were effective), we have a 25bb stack opening.

        So we have to be prepared for him to 4-bet jam over our raise. But this is a GREAT spot to 3-bet and to do so on the wide side.

        1. We put the pressure on the 25bb opener.
        2. We make it very hard on the BB to play with his 14bb stack.
        3. We have position if called.
        4. We can apply the pressure post flop with our stack.

        First thing I notice is we are right on the cusp of getting the right odds to set mine (using a 10-1 guideline), that in combination with the BB stack size I would be inclined to just fold hands in this category.

        With the effective stack on the shorter side, we are also not getting the implied odds to call with smaller suited connectors.

        So I would lean towards calling with some of the stronger broadway hands. All in all I think my range is pretty tight and I am not quite sure what to do with a hands like 77 (so this will be something that I look to study).

        I think there is also some merit to constructing a merged range that consists of only 3-bets here. I am unsure about this though and will have to look into that as well.

        Click image for larger version  Name:	Screen Shot 2019-08-10 at 7.20.56 AM.png Views:	0 Size:	277.9 KB ID:	22257
        So maybe something like this against a tight opener in this spot?

        Now sizing.

        Since stacks are shallow we do not need to bet large to accomplish our tasks.

        Villain opens to 3.7k. I like 8.8 - 9k.

        This puts pressure on villain and allows us to fold to a jam with our bluffs.

        Now to your question:

        Do we 5 bet jam or fold with our hand?

        Against THIS villain you estimated that he would jam a range like this over your 4-bet:

        66+, AK

        So visually we have a response from villain that looks like this:

        Click image for larger version  Name:	Screen Shot 2019-08-10 at 7.31.51 AM.png Views:	0 Size:	266.7 KB ID:	22258If this is his approach he is OVERFOLDING creating a great exploit spot for us to 3-bet a little wider.

        All in all - he is opening 238 combos and is only defending 70 to our 3-bet. So he is only defending 29% of the time, meaning our bluffs that we are getting a great price on by betting small is printing money as they are working 70% of the time!

        So maybe we can add in a few more 3-bet bluffs and exploit this spot.

        Now, how about our exact hand...AQs.

        Well IF he jams let's look at our odds against his jamming range.

        Assuming we 3-bet to 8k, the blinds fold and he jams for 40k there is 52k in the pot and we need to call 32k. So we need 38% + a 5% cushion as a baseline and we need 43%.

        Click image for larger version  Name:	Screen Shot 2019-08-10 at 7.39.47 AM.png Views:	0 Size:	871.9 KB ID:	22259
        Not quite there. So we can fold against this guy knowing that we are exploiting him in this spot so often. And when he jams, he probably has it.

        Now we can do this same analysis against looser ranges, great players who play more optimally, etc.

        But the main take away I got from reviewing this spot is just how successful and great 3-betting wide is in this exact spot.

        Comment


        • JredA
          JredA commented
          Editing a comment
          I see.

          For some reason I read this as 25bb, I guess it means 125bb:

          "CO opens for 2.3125BB 3700"

        • JredA
          JredA commented
          Editing a comment
          And Im not arguing or advocating for my play as being correct either. That is the beauty of poker, there is not a "right" way to play all spots. Yes there are optimal plays, but part of the reasons for posting are to train our brains to think through all the variables. You can then take all of the information and make the best play possible.

          All in all, in this spot and dynamic, even with that stack size I still prefer a 3 bet with the top end of our value range. And AQs for me, falls into that. If villains then jams over us (which we see happens only around 30% of the time with his range, then we have an easy fold). But 70% of the time we scoop up a decent pot pre-flop.

        • kkep
          kkep commented
          Editing a comment
          I can see that, it meant he opened for 2.3125 BB 3700 2.3125 x 1600 - 3700 sorry about that.

      • #10
        I’m folding this one. Just rough math at the table without a solver, I’m thinking I may have 13 outs, 52% equity. Could be a little higher if my A and Q are live, which they probably are, but I still hate calling off in spots like this.

        maybe a leak for me

        Comment

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