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How should we play a flopped set here?

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  • How should we play a flopped set here?

    300/600/600

    H UTG2 105BB
    V Bu 70BB

    H 9h9s UTG+2 opens to 1500
    CO calls
    Bu calls
    SB calls
    BB calls

    Flop 9cJhQh (pot 8100)

    So on a draw heavy board I believe I'm suppose to bet large here?

    H bets 6000
    Co folds
    Bu calls
    SB folds
    BB folds

    Turn 5h (9cJhQh) (pot 20100)

    H? Now I hate being OOP. Do we continue and if so with what size or check call? In fact I'm even questioning betting the flop at all.
    Should this have just been a bluff catcher from the get go?

    I choose to continue for max value 15500 believing he has a lot 2 pair hands, STR8 draws and of course the flush or FD. I'm never
    check folding bc the V isn't some random rec who is always going to have a flush here which is why I bet.

    V raises all in 34500 WTF now I know he has the Flush or at the very least a combo draw with the Ah. In real time I quickly counted
    my outs (10) and called it off. I think we all know my math isn't great so I see now I wasn't quite getting the right price unless he is ever
    bluffing with draws.

  • #2
    I'm going to run this in piosolver, and I will post the results later today. however, I will say what I think is correct now. Then I'll probably prove myself wrong later today.


    Preflop: I like the raise.

    Flop: I like the raise. I'm not sure about the 6k amount. I think that is a bit big, but I think the question here is are you wanting to price out the draws, or are you wanting to keep them in? Personly, if they have it now I'm going broke and that is just OK. It is multi-way, Now thinking about it I think 6k is good because it's multiway.

    Turn: I think is a bad card, but not the worst card in the deck. you flushes get there I think an 8h or Kh would be much worst. However, I think that I would just check here. if they jam it's a gross spot that I may want to vomit afterward. I think I fold. this may be too nitty, but its almost double the pot. If they bet lets sat 10k or 5k then I call if they bet the pot? well, you're calling 20 to win 60 and your getting 3:1. I think that you're crushing his range.

    I'm giving him a range
    I think I just call the turn. check on the river if they jam, probably fold and hate life doing it... being that you said they are a "Good Reg" I don't think they're overvaluing hands.

    so river action my be very difficult if you just check call turn. I'd be very interested to see other peoples answers here.

    Comment


    • #3
      So the reason for my bet size on the Flop was to simply extract max value from ranges that should hit that flop pretty good. If they happened to fold then that's fine too.
      The KT was certainly a little bit of a concern but it's pretty hard to flop it. Also I think that hand will often raise me on the flop since I clearly like my hand.

      Comment


      • kkep
        kkep commented
        Editing a comment
        Thanks, you can email them if that's easier...kkeppol@yahoo.com

      • jamtay317
        jamtay317 commented
        Editing a comment
        Okay. I will do that. I tried to send it over the four I don't think it worked

      • kkep
        kkep commented
        Editing a comment
        I don't know what the four is? I got the DM and responded....

    • #4
      While there are situations where I'm going big, pretty sure a 3500 orso flop bet is the right move. Nutz isn't folding nor are draws. Going to 6k sometimes is fine. I'll go large on the turn depending on the card. The 5 turn is one of those so I'm probably at 13k there. MDF will determine what I do on the river. Bias toward fold with bottom with the smaller pot but as played, I probably take the spot.

      Comment


      • #5

        Comment


        • #6
          I don't like flop sizing ... if it means 'you clearly like your hand'

          Being OOp or Ip is overrated, not everyone is able to ultize position ...

          Comment


          • kkep
            kkep commented
            Editing a comment
            Well I had a guy 2 seats to my right who had over 4.5m in live cashes and a bracelet yet most of my chips throughout the day were coming from him. While at the same time most of my chips were going to 2 of the 3 players to my left. I was lucky to have 1 weak player 2 seats to my left that I was able to exploit a few times. So there is that....

        • #7
          I really like the flop sizing - it could be argued that it is a bit too large considering we're multiway here but when the flop is that dynamic it swings it the other way.

          As played I think I make the call here on the turn, as much as I hate it.

          JPB's suggestion around making it 12k instead of 15.5k is good. From a villain's perspective it's unlikely to have too much of an influence on their decision, but when they do shove your odds are worse making the fold slightly easier.

          Comment


          • #8
            So although Jamtay wasn't able to run this as a multi way hand on the flop PIO liked me betting pot (8100)

            PIO also liked me going all in on the turn with the 9h. Having the 9h was in part why I decided to continue going for max value.

            PIO also tells us when we are raised on the turn we are behind. I think we all knew that. There we a few exceptions in the V's
            all in range like some (but not all) AK(unlikely to be in his range), ATo and 55 (probably doesn't make it to the turn).

            So if there are some bluffs that should have given me barely enough added equity to call it off.

            PIO says that if I check the turn the V should go all in about 25% but with more bluff combos combined with hands I'm behind
            and the same about 25% when they bet 15k.

            So I suppose check calling is better but in real time I hated the idea of giving them a free card on such a wet board. I wasn't
            ready to give my hand up and I thought if I checked the V would bet for sure leaving me in a shitty spot.

            I mean it's shitty if he bets like 10-15k which I definitely call but than that leaves him with a small enough jam on the river that I
            probably have to call.

            If he goes all in I'd still believe he has a lot of hands I'm ahead of and I have a hand that can improve to the absolute nuts
            yet I'm in a spot where I might be bluffed off of the best hand.

            So all in all I don't think I play this hand as horribly as I thought when it ended at the table...I also noted some facial expressions
            that made me feel like a donk but only for a NY minute lol

            The V had AhTh

            Comment


            • CrazyEddie
              CrazyEddie commented
              Editing a comment
              8100 on flop, jam the turn .. why not jam the flop ?
              Last edited by CrazyEddie; 08-05-2019, 07:48 AM.

          • #9
            I step away for a short break and in my absence the forums has turned into a solvers cult.

            1) We are not playing against bots we are playing against humans.

            2) No one, no matter how good can ever replicate the results that a solver will produce.

            3) The solvers can only provide feedback if the information provided in the solvers are accurate. They can only work with the ranges you put in or the "preset" ranges. They can only work with the bet sizings offered during the analysis. What if you miss something by not even providing the best sizing as an option?

            4) This current run cannot even be set reflect a multi-way pot on the flop. Once I see that, there is nothing further I can derive from this. Every answer thereafter is going to be skewed by having the solver assume the flop was heads up.

            Get back to doing the work instead of relying on solvers to provide the answers. Develop your ranges. What is your range on the flop? What are the 4 categories and how are they made up?

            When I look at my range, KTs and T8s is not typically in my EP ranges. (I assumed a full 10 player table for this hand). My best hands are the sets, which in a multi-way pot on this board might not even be "premium." As an in home analysis, I would take alot of time to determine this one, but it possible I am checking my whole range here when I see it laid out on the analyzer.

            In game I may have c-bet. I'm not gonna lie. But then at my in home analysis when I see how my range breaks down on this board, I may eventually conclude that I should not c-bet anything here.

            It also would depend on my opponents. If I have someone who will call 2 bets with 9x in the pot, that would change the perceived value I have with this hand.

            Comment


            • CrazyEddie
              CrazyEddie commented
              Editing a comment
              I might go big in HU pot .... but small multiway ...

            • kkep
              kkep commented
              Editing a comment
              It was hard to come up with a balanced ranged. I was premium heavy flop and turn even when checking a lot of what might otherwise be 'premium hands'.

            • jamtay317
              jamtay317 commented
              Editing a comment
              I have the pro version and i have not found a way to put in mutiway pots.

          • #10
            I tried to ask JL how to proceed on the flop but I must have formatted it poorly bc he had me on the BB.
            Oh well....

            Comment

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