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Missed value, flopped Full House in MW pot?

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  • Missed value, flopped Full House in MW pot?

    Early in a Live deep stack tournament

    B 200/400 a 400 Eff. stack 51k, I have 77k
    LJ opens 1200, CO calls, Btn (me 99) calls, SB squeezes 6k
    LJ calls, CO folds, I call (20k)
    Flop - 3s 3h 9h
    SB bets 8k, LJ folds, I call (pot 36k)
    Turn - Jd
    SB bets 12k, I call (pot 60k)
    River - Ah
    SB checks, I check

    I don't think he is semi-bluffing the flush on F and T, (that I beat) but he had hardly played a hand in over an hour and I feared he was slowplaying a bigger FH.
    If I bet River and he check shoves, he puts me in a terrible spot with the 3rd nuts and he could easily have the JJ and AA.
    If I shove, he is only calling me if I'm beat

  • #2
    I think you’re seeing monsters under the bed here. There is such a small chance he stops betting a full house on the river.

    The pot is 60k, by my math he has 25k back. I’d always just shove here unless you think he has exactly KK/QQ (which would make some sense) and want to exploitatively bet like 12.

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    • #3
      If you are that scared poker might not be the Game for you . You really should Change your mindset, yes very seldomly he has you beat, but this is not the end of the World

      i started nitty but when I took More Risks i had More Fun and More success

      a lot of years ago you could come through playing nitty but you will get crushed in These days

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      • #4
        What these guys said. Once players see you check back 9's full there you will never get value again.

        Comment


        • #5
          Hey Guido, thanks for the reply

          I'm not scared LOL, I just think it was a little situational. It was the biggest tourney I've played in, last day 1 flight and no re-entry with over 100k for first place. (ok, maybe a little scared)
          If this had happened on an earlier day 1 flight where I would've had the chance to re-enter, I would have definitely jammed, so I guess both you and reeeeeeper are right in the sense that it shouldn't matter what tournament you are playing or the situation, the moral is you should just play that individual hand in the best way possible

          Comment


          • #6
            Hey RealJPB thanks for the reply

            I use the small bet on the river a lot, it was my main takeaway from an assassinato purchase a couple of years ago that gets me chipped up early in a lot of tourneys because people just can't fold with their 3rd pairs etc for such a cheap price

            I like the small bet on the river here as you are suggesting for that same reason BUT by betting this surely I then have to call a jam for a further 13.5k when now its highly likely i'm beat??

            So maybe just jam anyway?? Or do you think they maybe call the small bet, even though they're not happy about it (lets say with QQ) knowing if they're wrong, it's not the end of the tourney for them?

            Comment


            • #7
              He has 1/2 pot behind. Do you really think he is not calling off with Jx? KK? What if he was bluffing with AK and decided to pot control for some reason? He's never calling? Do you really think he is going to risk not getting paid with JJ and check there?

              You have the effective nuts. His most likely hand range is marginal value or junk.

              Yes, every once in a rare while he has AA here. If that is case then so be it. I'm out and I need to fire a second bullet.

              Comment


              • #8
                I totally get the fear factor in a tournament...I used to think like that and have friends who still do. But we get limited opportunities in tournaments and they shouldn't be missed. If we get unlucky, that's too bad... money is GONE after tournament starts... So, once this flop comes, you should have only ONE thing on your mind... what is the best way to get all my money in! There are no cards that can come that should change that mindset... none. We're ready to go broke!

                So the only question is whether to raise on the Flop or on the turn... Given that you called a pre-flop squeeze, you will be presumed to have a decent hand of some type, and while 99 IS in your range, it's a small portion of a wider range... And since he squeezed, it's likely he'll continue AND barrel non-scary turns... so a raise narrows your range too much... If you had A3s for some reason, raise would be right, but since there are (repeat it... NO BAD CARDS for you), calling is fine.

                On the turn, a raise to put him in makes perfect sense... and you could still be doing it w/ a strong hand, but it doesn't have to be just 99, so if he has a small PP, he could get away... but I'm inclined to shove there... if he has a J, he's calling... all big PPs are calling... he's only getting away from AK/AQ and smaller pps...

                Once he checked the river, he's unlikely to call you, but it's definitely time to put in that value bet... and since $25K is only 40% of pot, anything less looks odd... so, just hope he has a J or an A or TT+ and bet, happily.

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