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TPMK facing river AI

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  • TPMK facing river AI

    I think I'm supposed to fold this but villain is usually aggressive on river, I have seen him bluff sometimes. Does he have a T in his range here?

    PokerStars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $1/$2 - 6 players
    Replay this hand on Pokeit

    UTG: $275.69 (138 bb)
    MP: $232.83 (116 bb)
    CO: $555.30 (278 bb)
    BU: $200.00 (100 bb)
    SB: $475.27 (238 bb)
    BB (Hero): $495.35 (248 bb)

    Pre-Flop: ($3) Hero is BB with T:club: Q:club:
    1 fold, MP raises to $5, 2 players fold, SB calls $4, Hero calls $3

    Flop: ($15) 9:spade: T:heart: 4:diamond: (3 players)
    SB checks, Hero checks, MP bets $21, SB folds, Hero calls $21

    Turn: ($57) 5:diamond: (2 players)
    Hero checks, MP bets $50, Hero calls $50

    River: ($157) 4:club: (2 players)
    Hero checks, MP bets $156.83 (all-in)

  • #2
    You're not beating much! I would fold, unless I had the specific read that he was a bad aggressive/maniac.


    • #3
      I call this one. This is a nuts-or-nothing line on that run-out. Since you said he's capable of bluffing here, and there are a lot of bluffs available (even though you block some), I think a call is in order. It's rare to see anyone make that bet on the river with AT or KT, and probably even JJ and maybe QQ, so I think you can rule out a lot of the middling hands that beat you. Also T9 is going to be concerned with that paired board, were there any timing tells?
      Last edited by reeeeeeper; 08-02-2019, 08:22 PM.


      • #4
        I would fold. What do you beat?
        You have a weak TP and lose to all overpairs, sets, T9, KT and AT
        Although you do beat all his missed draws and air bluffs I don't think your hand is strong enough as a bluffcatcher unless you have a stone cold read on him bluffing.
        Also, how does he perceive you? If you are only calling with a strong range he may be betting heavily for value. If he thinks you are loose, he may think he can get you off a weak pair.


        • #5
          Looking at his bet sizing it seems to suggest there was the intention almost straight away of getting it all in the middle by the river.

          Have you played many hands with this villain? Do you know he is capable of firing all 3 barrels on a bluff?

          Unless his river cbet % is particularly high (and I'm guessing that you probably don't have a big enough sample size to say for sure as this is a zoom game) I would be folding here.


          • #6
            Villain overbet flop, so I'm going to rule out sets, two pair, aces, kings, but not jacks and queens. I'll keep in his AT and KT because people sometimes overbet for protection and maybe at the river he had a preternatural read that those would get called. I did assume villain would keep bluffing his overcard gut shots and a quarter of his AK. My my untutored 'zilla estimate, villain is good only about 40% of the time.

            If I take out villain's tens 'cuz he'd want calls, and take out his AK bluffs and bluff only his suited gut shots, he's still only at 40% equity when called.


            • #7
              That's a good hand to 3-bet pre from the BB vs an agro and what feels like a weak call from the SB.

              So what might his bluffs be? I would hope it's not this agro but lets first include all of these hands

              KQs,QJs,J8s,AdKd,AdQd,AdJd,KdJd,Ad9d,Kd9d,Qd9d,Jd9 d,Qd8d,Jd7d,8d7d,AKo,KQo,QJo

              What are his made hands that beat you? Let's say JJ+,99,44,ATs,KTs,T9s,ATo,KTo,T9o

              Put them all together and his range on the river looks like this -

              Board: 4dTh9s5d4c
              Equity Win Tie
              MP3 48.00% 47.00% 1.00% { JJ+, 99, 44, ATs, KQs, KTs, QTs+, J8s, T9s, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, KdJd, Ad9d, Kd9d, Qd9d, Jd9d, Qd8d, Jd7d, 8d7d, AKo, ATo, KQo, KTo, QJo, T9o }
              BB 52.00% 51.00% 1.00% { QcTc }

              When they aren't bluffing AKo KQo 78dd (22 less combos we can still profitably call),

              Board: 4dTh9s5d4c
              Equity Win Tie
              MP3 61.54% 60.26% 1.28% { JJ+, 99, 44, ATs, KQs, KTs, QTs+, J8s, T9s, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, KdJd, Ad9d, Kd9d, Qd9d, Jd9d, Qd8d, Jd7d, ATo, KTo, QJo, T9o }
              BB 38.46% 37.18% 1.28% { QcTc }

              Now lets remove some marginal made hands that he may or may not chose to turn into bluffs -

              Board: 4dTh9s5d4c
              Equity Win Tie
              MP3 65.28% 65.28% 0.00% { JJ+, 99, 44, ATs, KQs, KTs, QJs, J8s, T9s, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, KdJd, Qd8d, Jd7d, ATo, KTo, QJo, T9o }
              BB 34.72% 34.72% 0.00% { QcTc }

              So with the river range I constructed, if he isn't turning some marginal made hands like 9x into a bluff we should be mucking our hand
              UNLESS we included either one or both AKo KQo in his river bluff range. .

              Shitty spot

              So my in opinion vs an AGRO that we expect to keep barreling we should let go of our marginal made hand on the turn because it only has a slim chance of improving on the river


              • #8
                Pokeit is really neat. Is it complicated ?? I should use that...

                Back to the hand, I would fold. Either 999 or JJ +

                Bluffing hands include : I don't know ... QJ ? AK ? think it's a strong hand.

                Last edited by CrazyEddie; 08-11-2019, 12:35 PM.


                • kkep
                  kkep commented
                  Editing a comment
                  It's easy to use but only as accurate as the data we apply which hopefully is reasonably accurate.