Here is an interesting scenario that I came across last night, I was on the HJ With AsAc, the stacks are $1200 effective. 1/3 game
I Raise to $10 the CO (A Good Reg that I've played with many times over the past year) Raises to $35, folds to me I make it $145, he calls.
I lead $175. CO Raises $575. Should I shove? Should I call? If I call How do you continue?
No announcement yet.
AA Well Connected Flop
Yes, Calling to showdown here is bad. the reason that it is bad is villain will almost never have Jx, or Tx in his range. he could have something like KsQs but the more likely candidates are AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT here. I am not really sure if he would call a 4bet with TT here.
If you have played with this villain many times you should have a good idea of what his range looks like in this case. On top of that you should be aware of what your image is against him.
With that being said you should be asking yourself:
1. Is he capable of raising a hand like QQ or KK in this spot?
2. What does his 3-bet range look like?
3. Is he capable of bluffing in this spot?
4. Do you ever 4 bet to 5x of the 3 bet with anything OTHER than AA or KK?
For the most part, cash game decisions can be made by simply ranging villain(s). Deciding what hands you beat and what hands you lose too. Looking at the price and pot odds and then making the most profitable decision.
Since you have played so much with villain you should be able to come up with a decent range in this spot.
Most $1/3 games do not have 4 bet calls pre flop and raises on the flop. So I would tend to range villain either towards a monster type hand or monster type draw that he is not folding. And you block the most obvious draw (AsKs). His range is probably heavily tilted towards value. Again, how does this villain play his value hands? Would he peel a 5x 4 bet with AQ AJ? Would he over-play KK and QQ here and raise the flop, because your hand looks very much like AA or KK.
Sit down and come up with a range he would play here and crunch some numbers.
You need to call $400 into a pot of $1040. So you only need 28% equity.
For simplicity sake, most 1/3 3-bet ranges that call a 4-bet are strong pairs and AK, so lets give villain TT+ to begin. You have 66% equity, plenty to continue.
What if villain only had QQ and KK 25% of the time (so 1.5 combo of ea)? You have 59% equity.
What if villain had 2 combos of AKs, AA and TT/JJ. You have enough equity to call at 33%.
What if villain had 1 combo of AKs, KsQs, TT, JJ and AA? You still have enough equity to here at 29%
What if villain only does this with AA, TT and JJ only? You only have 19% equity, a clear fold.
When you review hands like this you will start to see that decisions become much easier. In this case, it comes down to whether or not villain does this with QQ and KK and whether or not he is capable of having an bluffs (AK or KsQs). But honestly, how many bluffs does a 1/3 player have in this exact spot? Unless they are a maniac I doubt many.Last edited by JredA; 07-17-2019, 03:10 PM.
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would calling to showdown be a bad move here? He could easily have flushdraw with a straightdraw on top, if he's raising over 50% of his stack wouldn't he prob call any shove...especially if he's dead set on realizing his equity anyway?
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Having the As in your hand is really significant here. A lot of players (wrongly) think that the BDFD is a backup if they're facing a set, or that it takes away an out if they're facing a FD. In fact, having the As makes a draw much less likely, and weights your opponents range more towards strong made hands.
As long as you think he would play KK or QQ like this, I would say shove.
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