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Tough spot with overpair

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  • Tough spot with overpair

    6-max cash game
    Effective stacks 200bb

    P: BTN
    H: QhQd

    2 limpers.

    BTN (Hero): Raises to 5bb
    SB: Re-raises to 19bb
    BB: Folds
    Limpers: Fold
    BTN (Hero): Calls

    Flop: Ts 5c 2h (~36bb [rake is deducted from the pot on each street]

    SB: All in for 181bb
    BTN (Hero): ??

    HUDless site so no exact stats on villain, but I had noted down that he was generally tight and passive and didn't seem to bluff (played all draws passively and hadn't been caught with air).

    His tight/passiveness was one of the reasons I elected not to 4bet this hand in case he was one of the opponents who only 3bets with KK+ and take a flop.

    Based on MDF I think I have to call here - I do have 9 combos of sets but is that enough? AA-KK would've been a 4bet pre and JJ is an easier fold, but this one feels right on the line.

    [EDIT: Not sure of the relevance of this, but it was me and villain who had been the first to play on this table and after 10-15mins of HU where I was probably about 20bb up he sat out and said something along the lines of 'we need to wait for some clowns to join the table'. Perhaps this means he was a little wary of me and didn't want to be put in a tough spot OOP in the hand as discussed above?]
    Last edited by LondonImp; 07-08-2019, 10:00 AM.

  • #2
    I agree. It's a tough spot!

    Based on your read that he is tight/passive, then his preflop 3-betting range is probably quite narrow, maybe JJ+, AK. On the dryest of dry flops he shoves for 181bb. The only hands he could have that you are behind to are AA and KK. But would he ever play AA or KK this way? There are no draws here, so what's he scared of? I think JJ makes the most sense, because he's worried the turn might bring an over card, and he won't know how to proceed.
    I know your hand doesn't fare that well against a range of JJ+, but I think you should call, and expect to see JJ or some sort of crazy bluff sometimes.

    Whatever he had he played it badly.

    As for his comments when you were HU, I'm reminded of the Stephen Sondheim song "Send in the clowns? Don't bother, they're here."

    Comment


    • #3
      Agree... unless I have some read, I’m finding a call here...

      Comment


      • #4
        No one knows, this isn't poker, this is gambling.

        EDIT: Sorry, that was a bit snarky. What I mean is, no one trying to play poker would do that on such a dry board. It's a gambling move. Since you don't know the player you should most likely call since you have a hand you can very reasonably call with and then take a note on exactly what kind of donkey this is for the next time. Since it's a cash game you just reload and get the money back later if he wins.
        Last edited by reeeeeeper; 07-09-2019, 03:26 AM.

        Comment


        • Paul Khoo
          Paul Khoo commented
          Editing a comment
          i dont agree with your statement, first Poker is a gambling game, but is gamble with an edge , so we say we are not gambling because we have the edge over our opponent , i can agree with it. villain jaming in this spot , for what ever bet sizing , if he can get worst hand call that is good play , he know that most player are calling with KK QQ JJ some player would even call middle or under pair , so if you would call i would bet the most at allow you to call with worst hand , this is call NL holdem.
          when you use the word no one try to play poker would do xyz move you are wrong , you haven meet me, i ever bet a 10% pot size bet at river for a bluff, i also ever jam a 3 x overpot at river with TPTk getting worst hand to call. if my move can induce you to call or get the action i want that is a good move , its not call gambling .
          we can also debate villain dont know hero well , maybe its true , but he just need to know the population well, most player are not folding KK QQ , in this spot , thats why most player lose money . if i have read villain do overbluff , i would call with QQ, but i dont really this QQ is auto stack off in this spot , spr is 5 pot how much he shove how much . i rather hero4 bet QQ preflop villain 5 bet stll can fold, most of your opponent you guys met would not 5 bet less then KK

      • #5
        Thanks for the responses guys.

        I found the call and the bellend, sorry I meant the villain, turned over AA.

        Comment


        • #6
          sorry i come in late for the party ,but i would say fold base on your description,but you can say i saw the outcome then i say it out, so....

          pot 36 bb he shove 181 bb , he is shoving 5 x the pot,if you have two pair or what ever you can consider call , btw is that live or online, with huds ? how come he still pick up so much tell.
          and you say he is passive , you just put his range vs your QQ : JJ+ AK+ you block his AQ how much equity do you have , if does he bluff with all AK also , his bluff still have 6 outs againist you , his value hand we have only 2 outs 181bb shove to 36bb if he willing to shove i give it to you . like what you say you could have set here , if your best hand over hereis QQ thenis different story , for me if i have AA in this spot in your situation i would also flat vs him, AA in this spot i would consider calling.

          without strong read he would bluff enough i would not call this all in. someone comment it must be JJ , then good luck he may be right x percent of time. this villain is playing poorly he give us a good chance to get away , but hero stil fail to get away .

          the spr is 5 this should not be an auto stack off spot , why villain shove , because he know he can get alot of worst hand from not experience player to call off his stack, if turn is a A or K , QQ will be freeze, JJ will be freeze. especially an Ace drop it does not benefit villain altho it improve his range, no one is paying him off unless hero is a station.

          if villain bet 3 street of value with nice bet sizing and turn and river blank we might have a hard time escaping

          Comment


          • #7
            I would raise 1 BB More preflop

            this overpush doesnt make sense to me at all , why would he do this with a better overpair or set on this dry board ?

            Straight draws are unlikely 34 not in his range . it looks like a Micro stakes move with AT - 9T (fear of getting outdrawn), or with Ak, Aq, aj (try to push you out of the pot,with overcards equity)

            I call here 100%

            Comment


            • #8
              Hahaha seems like I am the only one might fold , seems like a lot like to bluff catch in this spot. Use pot odd to determine risk 181 to win pot +villain stack we need 80+% to break even , let's give villain range JJ + Ak+ in flop our equity is not ahead with this range, + he might not shove all his AK or JJ , JJ is likely , let's say combo we win 16combo of AK 6combo of of JJ . We lose 12combo of AA KK., But base on equity wise dont see much reason to call.
              base on MDF I think think is very very marginal. Provided villain bluff enough. We need to defend top 15% of our hand? Base on hero description it don't fit in that villain will bluff enough.
              Base on exploit also base on hero description what hand are we winning beside AK and jj.AK still have reasonable outs against us. Base on hero description does villain look like having AT 9T. Base on hero description , I might not think villain has alot JJ here.

              Comment


              • #9
                We are way behind JJ+(19 combos) 37% so how many bluffs can we find to make a profitable call?
                There really aren't a ton but I suppose AK AKs is possible and would give us more than enough to call off.

                This nit vs an unknown will be folding way more often than calling. I believe 97% of the poker community
                are check calling that flop with AK and not blasting off with an under pair or complete air. .

                So of the 19 'nutted' combos we are ahead of 6 and tying 1.

                Comment


                • Paul Khoo
                  Paul Khoo commented
                  Editing a comment
                  You put Ak+ JJ+ on flop vs QQ compare equity our QQ vs that range still calling 181bb to fight a small pot,? All this is we assume he bet all AK. What he only bet partial of AK that have a backdoor flush. Our QQ vs this range is much worst.

                • kkep
                  kkep commented
                  Editing a comment
                  You are right, I was actually thinking to myself if we could find 6 bluffs we could call. These 6 aren't good enough tho.
                  If we are looking for a 3% edge we need about 48%

                  Board: 2hTs5c
                  Equity Win Tie
                  BU 45.21% 43.21% 2.00% { QdQh }
                  SB 54.79% 52.79% 2.00% { JJ+, AhKh, AsKs, AcKc, AhKc, AsKh, AcKs }

                  However I stated if we think he is ever doing that with AKs AK which is 16 combos then it's a call. I mean if they are going to blast off with AK I don't think they are going to be thinking about BD draws....

                  Board: 2hTs5c
                  Equity Win Tie
                  BU 53.33% 51.90% 1.43% { QdQh }
                  SB 46.67% 45.24% 1.43% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

              • #10
                Villians move seems to be a trend I see with these types of nits, especially at low stakes. They are worried about hero "catching up" and are happy with the pot size the way it is so they majorly overbet the pot. I have been finding a fold more and more often to these types of players. On the other hand, have been shoving profitably in spots like this when villain bets small or checks as that is indicative of them not wanting to lose their stack on a marginal hand.

                I love these types of players as they are so easy to play against.

                Comment


                • Paul Khoo
                  Paul Khoo commented
                  Editing a comment
                  agree with you .villain might be fish to play in this way , but he might be exploiting hero , from this thread you can see how many player are calling. villain are only losing to set he win almost all hand , if he can get it in asap when he is ahead that is the right play , sometime is not about opponent catching up, there is sometime more turn or river card will frezze a action , if turn drop a A it does not beneifit villain much unless hero has AK , kk QQ JJ will have hard time calling when Ace drop

              • #11
                I would call here with QQ+, and AK I think that I would fold JJ here although that may not be correct. I know that in the stakes that I play I've seen this happen many many times. Almost always its when someone is afraid of getting drawn out on with a marginal hand like 88 99 AT IT QT JT 9T 8T. Other times I see them turn over AA Kk QQ JJ, but more often than not I see them have top pair with bad kicker.

                I may call with JJ depending on player. I usually see them do it more than one time in a session.

                Comment


                • kkep
                  kkep commented
                  Editing a comment
                  I don't think tight passive players are 3-betting Tx hands pre.

                • jamtay317
                  jamtay317 commented
                  Editing a comment
                  No, usually not. I have seen it when they are upset

                • Paul Khoo
                  Paul Khoo commented
                  Editing a comment
                  your reason at least make sense , but i agree with kkep , and base on hero description we give villain reasonable range, all hand that you mention that we beat dont really fall into a tight passive player 3 bet range.

              • #12
                For me , poker action or result does not matter the most , i think reason for betting ,raising, check raise , calling or folding , is the most important part .

                from most thread , player do not think in term of range , when vilain over pot shove 5 x the pot most player assume AA KK are not in villain range .

                if there is no read or no reason to allow me to think in this way i would always put in all possible range and hand ,in that range.

                QQ can be a call here if hero read on villain change, example: hero describe villain is a loose hyper aggro monkey , so hero decided to trap him with QQ . then on flop we an argue or say its a call .

                outcome is not the most important thing in poker , but human always think in term of outcome. i believe having a good reason is more important , when able find good reason , the rest is about experience and personal judgement to gather as much info as possible, when we have more info then we can use the info , to try to fit in to the reason. if those info dont fit in to the reason , most likely we are making the wrong decision.

                lets say if hero is having KK then this is a hard spot , because we are still losing to AA , but we win QQ and possible JJ, but villain will have lesser AK. but villain over shove 5 x the pot it will be a tough spot for me .

                but ask you guys a Question imagine in a 1/2 game effective stack 1000 , you have kk , .villain open we 3 bet , villain 4 bet jam 1k are you guys folding , i hate this spot , but i will fold ,its a crazy fold but i will fold , who say cant fold , if villain dare to risk 1k to win such a small pot even he show me bluff i would said well play . i know there are alot player cant make this fold

                Comment


                • Guido
                  Guido commented
                  Editing a comment
                  Dan negreanu says he never folds kk preflop ,he did it 1 Time and villian had QQ

                • Paul Khoo
                  Paul Khoo commented
                  Editing a comment
                  haha i heard before and i know , but base on what you say , i can understand lots of info

                  first this is not a common 100bb or 200 bb game , 1/2 game with 1000 effective stack is 500 bb
                  second we are not committed at all , i give a example when we 3 bet in a 1/2 game can how big 18 ? lets say bigger 50 , someone 4 bet jam 1000 , you call? haha if you want to call happy calling then . first what danial are in MTT , second in cash game per 100 hand you know win how many bb? a 500bb just gone need how long to grind back?
                  there is alot of different when our stack is committed and not committed plus the effective stack is very important
                  and you know why MTT player lose lots of money in cash game to the cash regular, ?this is a perfect example
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