Late in the tournament (9 hours). Field of 159, 12 players left, everyone is in the money at least $250 cash, however top 10 win a seat worth $1800 in a $500,000 guaranteed tournament and $400 cash.
6 players at the table. BB $6000, SB $3000, BTN ante of $6000, short stack CO goes all in for $14,000. Everyone folds to me the BB, I have about 20 BB, I show an Q7o saying "I wish I could call you." The gentlemen at the table freak out (nicely), "You had to call!" "I would have called, would you have called?" "In a heart beat". The most boisterous were table chip leaders with 30BB or more.
This was one of 2 final tables, we had been playing together for about an hour. The short stack all in player had only tabled 3 hands, they were all solid winners. I figured him for at least Ax, probably better. I figured I was behind and it just wasn't worth risking my chips. It seems to be common thinking
that any 2 cards against an all in short stack, if BB are a go, I just don't see it.
So, I did the math to try to show myself why I was wrong.
Pot odds: Blinds and ante put 15BB in the pot, Short stack puts in 14BB, it costs me 8BB. Using the easy percentage method 8/27 = 29%
Equity using rule of 2 and 4. Have maximum of 6 outs, probably less if he is suited. Short stack is all in so 6 x 4 = 24%.
My equity is less than my pot odds, based on this my fold was correct.
Am I doing the calculation wrong? If not, why does everyone assume you must call with any two cards?
6 players at the table. BB $6000, SB $3000, BTN ante of $6000, short stack CO goes all in for $14,000. Everyone folds to me the BB, I have about 20 BB, I show an Q7o saying "I wish I could call you." The gentlemen at the table freak out (nicely), "You had to call!" "I would have called, would you have called?" "In a heart beat". The most boisterous were table chip leaders with 30BB or more.
This was one of 2 final tables, we had been playing together for about an hour. The short stack all in player had only tabled 3 hands, they were all solid winners. I figured him for at least Ax, probably better. I figured I was behind and it just wasn't worth risking my chips. It seems to be common thinking
that any 2 cards against an all in short stack, if BB are a go, I just don't see it.
So, I did the math to try to show myself why I was wrong.
Pot odds: Blinds and ante put 15BB in the pot, Short stack puts in 14BB, it costs me 8BB. Using the easy percentage method 8/27 = 29%
Equity using rule of 2 and 4. Have maximum of 6 outs, probably less if he is suited. Short stack is all in so 6 x 4 = 24%.
My equity is less than my pot odds, based on this my fold was correct.
Am I doing the calculation wrong? If not, why does everyone assume you must call with any two cards?
Comment