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Nuts vs the Nut draw

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  • jamtay317
    started a topic Nuts vs the Nut draw

    Nuts vs the Nut draw

    This is a hand that I played last night which I thought was very interesting, I would like some feedback on my thought processes.

    Blinds 1/2 effective stacks 250
    I am delt AdQs in the LJ there is one limper I make it 10 and CO calls with 3 other callers(including the original limper).

    The flop:
    KdJd9s

    checks to me I bet 11 (looking back on I think this is pretty bad, I would normally make it about 30) I don't have a good reason why I did this. I think it was just a bad play on my part.

    Anyways the CO (who cannot fold a pair and will only bet the nuts) raises to 22, it folds to me, I call (my thought here is that he has QT and if I get there I am getting his stack)

    Turn 8d
    I check, he bets 40. I call (with the intent of folding the river unless a T or a diamond comes) this is where I have a question:

    still knowing that he has the nuts, and if I get there I am getting the remaining 180 in his stack should I make the call with 25% equity? I think that I am correct with my math here saying with implied odds I need 11% equity to call.

    The river comes and it's an As we check he wins with QhTd


  • jamtay317
    commented on 's reply
    Thank you, I will start trying to look at ranges and not just a single had

  • BruceO
    replied
    Yes, at least, the math is technically correct... if all assumptions are... but this is a very rare case where you are claiming the ability to know, with certainty both what he has and what he will do...

    I can accept your first assumption, but I doubt at at least the 2nd assumption, which assumes certainty about him committing that remaining 180, which is very unlikely since a 4th diamond would be obvious and a good player might call small, but isn’t likely to commit 180... and the T wouldn’t be a guarantee either...

    I think you may be double counting the Td in your outs (9d and 2 non D Tens), so, yes, it’s a call if you are certain he’s that much of a fish...

    but in my experience, someone that tight and careful isn’t calling off if you hit..., in my estimation, you’re real equity, based on what you might get from the 4% of time you hit a non-diamond T + the remainder of virtually nothing more if it’s a D... makes it close to even odds at best... a marginal fold

    Guido is correct... in most cases, key to thinking is that it needs to be about ranges, and probability assigned to different options...

    Leave a comment:


  • Guido
    replied
    Stop putting villian on a Single Hand, put him on a range , you might be right seldomly most often you cannot guess his exact Hand properly

    Leave a comment:

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