Yup missed the limp and of course folding only loses 2k (d'oh) thanks for pointing that out.
You have an A in your hand so there are only 12 combos of AK remaining, otherwise yes it would have been 16.
I didn't even realise the calculator you mentioned was on here (only been a member here for 9 months...) so I've given it a go myself and I make it +1,375 profit. This is ~3bb profit.
Based on this surely it's a shove?
Using your calculation of ~3k profit this it becomes an even clearer shove in my opinion. 7.5bb in value here is just too much too pass on.
Why would you fold and lose 2k when you could shove and win 1.33k?
[EDIT: Right I've gone through the calculator again and now it's coming out at 125]
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What do you do with AQo here
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Three corrections Londonlmp  First there was a limper so the initial profit from a fold would be 9,000, not 8,600. Secondly there are 16 combinations of AK, not 12 counting the suited combos), and thirdly I would lose 2K by folding (my original raise), not 6K. I did put all of this in the floattheturn ev calculator showing it to be approx 3K plus ev, but it just still didn't seem like a good shove to me. Hence the post.
With that said I think kkep made the most salient point about using the calculator here in that this is a 4 bet jam spot (where ranges are much tighter), not an open shove or fold to open shove spot (where ranges are wider).

I want to give this a go from a mathematical viewpoint and I would appreciate it if someone could check my workings for me:
If we shove we are going to get villain to fold 50% of the time. As stated in the OP we know villain will fold the 12 combos of AK that she has and call with the 12 combos of QQ+ that she has.
So 50% of the time we are going to win the pot there and then: 2000 (our original raise) + 200 (small blind) + 400 (ante) + 6000 (BB's raise) = 8,600 profit
If we get called and win we profit 20,200 (villain's stack, and the SB).
If we get called and lose we lose 20,000 (our stack)
So we can plug that into:
eV = (50% * 8,600) + (50%* [ (x * 20,200)  ( y * 20,000)])
Where x is our equity when called and y is 1  x
So once we know the eV of shoving we can compare the result to folding (a loss of 6,000) chips to determine the correct play.
I'm at work and don't have access to equilab hence the equation is incomplete  apologies.
Is that correct?
[EDIT: I suppose we also need to do the calculation again including JJ in the BB's calling range and then take a weighted average of the two to find the correct eV of shoving.]Last edited by LondonImp; 06202019, 05:03 AM.
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LOL  Actually in Atlanta. I grew up in FL.
So, I put this in the advanced fold/push calculator and, based on the info above, it shows just over a $3K profit. It seems though that is more old school thinking and now the prevalent thought is more about equity in that specific situation. I think I am with you guys in that it is a fold.
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Where do I sign up to play this villain?
The lady's range crushes you; nothing to think about here. Fold. All day.
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Fold. You have very little equity (about 25% I think) against the indicated range. It doesn't matter that she'd fold AK to a shove since what she calls with destroys you and if you just call she destroys you. Fold. You've only invested 10% of your stack. Even if she has a couple bluffs it's not really enough if she's genuinely this nitty. Fold.
Fold.
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What do you do with AQo here
This is a home tourney (18 players) so I know villain pretty well. Blinds are 200/400 with a 400 BB ante and effective stacks are roughly 20K.
One limper to me and I raise to 2,000 with AQo. I know the raise size is larger than normal, but there is a player directly to my left who calls liberally so I price it higher than normal to discourage him from coming along as that tends to lead to more callers.
IT folds to the villain who is in the BB. Villain 3 bets to 6,000, original limper folds and it is on me. I know her playing style very well am comfortable putting her on a range of AAQQ (maybe JJ, but not likely), AKs, and AKo. After she puts in the 6K there is 9K total in the pot and she has 14K behind (I have her covered). I also know that she would fold AKo and AKs to a shove.
What is your play here with AQo and why? This one really has me confused so thanks in advance for the thoughts.Tags: None
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