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Hand History from Deepstack 1/3 NL

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  • Hand History from Deepstack 1/3 NL

    Hero ($1000) opens 9cTc to $13 from UTG 10 handed game.
    Villain (LAG) UTG+3 3b to $30.
    1 Call from late position. Hero Calls
    Flop 9x 6x 2c
    Hero checks. Villain bets $75.
    Late Position folds. Hero calls.
    Turn 7x
    Hero checks. Villain bets $165
    Hero calls.
    River 8x
    Hero Checks. Villain bets $400.
    Hero goes all in for $300 more.
    Villain folds.

    Thoughts on this hand?

  • #2
    Your opening size is slightly larger than I would go. I tend to go 3-3.5x, so $10. But this is minor.

    Peeling pre-flop is mandatory. You are super deep with a very playable hand.

    At $1/3 most players who 3-bet an UTG open from MP usually have a pretty strong range. When they bet 3/4 pot on this flop and again on the turn, I think we can comfortably range them as having a strong over-pair or broadway hand that has picked up equity on the turn.

    Since there are no backdoor draws that improve on the turn, my guess for villain would be 99+ and maybe AK some percentage of the time. If we think villain is capable of bluffing and putting pressure on us then the higher the percentage of AK.

    The main decision comes on the turn. Do we have enough equity to call to see a river?

    Well, let's give villain 99+ and AKs.

    We are facing a bet of $165 into a pot of $240. So we need 29% equity here to profitably call.

    Click image for larger version  Name:	Screen Shot 2019-06-19 at 7.06.23 AM.png Views:	0 Size:	80.4 KB ID:	19963

    We are not quite getting a good enough price to call, but it's very close.

    It's a good bet sizing by villain. Your hand looks very much like a marginal hand or draw and they are pricing you barely out.

    If we think villain stacks off w/ an over pair IF we hit, then implied odds help to justify this call in this scenario. The only problem is most villains will check back if we hit a 9,8 or T as it completes so many obvious draws. An alternate line would be to lead river if we hit, but again with all the obvious draws hitting then the villain will probably fold a large percentage of the time.

    Now if we give villain a few more combo's of AK as bluffs, let's say instead of 4 we give them 6.

    Click image for larger version  Name:	Screen Shot 2019-06-19 at 7.08.53 AM.png Views:	0 Size:	79.4 KB ID:	19962

    We are now getting the right price to call.

    As you can see this comes down to just how often you think villain has bluffs in his range. The more often he has bluffs, the more likely you should call the turn bet. If he is a good LAG (don't see these often at $1/3), then he may have a hand like A5s in his range that he is barreling with since he picked up additional equity.

    On the other hand if he is only doing this turn sizing w/ value (an over pair most likely), then you are just short of the price needed.
    Last edited by JredA; 06-19-2019, 08:12 AM.

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    • #3
      If you're calling on the turn because you think you have the best hand a lot of the time because Villain is aggressive enough to barrel off with worse hands or will check behind rivers when you're ahead & you know you can confidently fold if he triples, then I like the turn call.

      If you're calling the turn just to try to improve, then I don't like the turn call.

      Otherwise, LGTM.

      Comment


      • #4
        I definitely called the flop bet thinking the villain is capable of bluffing with AQo+. The villain is definitely not afraid to barrel especially big. The villain usually opens pre flop anywhere from $15 to $30 and is the most aggressive reg I play with. I figured I am ahead a decent amount of the time with backdoor outs in case villain does have JJ+. When I picked up straight outs on the turn I did not think I had the direct odds to call but my implied odds were there. Against most opponents I would usually fold pre flop or on the flop to such a big bet but I knew this opponent was very capable of bluffing big.

        Also I make my opening size $13 because often times this 1/3 game plays like 2/5. Usually stacks range from $300 to $1500. When I opened to $10 I did not have much fold equity most of the time. If I was in a tighter game with smaller stacks my open size is $10.
        Last edited by chadc1231; 06-19-2019, 02:42 PM.

        Comment


        • reeeeeeper
          reeeeeeper commented
          Editing a comment
          Yeah, I think the open size is fine since you're so deep. Depending on the table player texture anything in the $9-$15 range seems fine.

          Not really sure implied odds are enough with 1 card to come if you think you're behind currently since you're 4:1 on the implied and need at least 6:1 I think if you count all 9 outs, and I don't think you can count them all since you could get reversed for some of them (your two-pair outs may make him a straight, e.g.).
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