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should I have bet smaller on river ?

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  • Guido
    started a topic should I have bet smaller on river ?

    should I have bet smaller on river ?

    AF says when you are pretty sure you have the best hand you should often bet 1/3 potsize on river because people call too much and you collect regularly 10 bb at least , this has the expection of getting aces preflop

    but here he could have hit a ton like Jd , 9d, 8d that would call my river betsize , i was targeting this part of villians range

    Did I miss value by betting too big ?

    PokerStars Hand : Tournament , $100+$9 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (350/700) -

    8-max Seat #6 is the button
    Seat 1: (26665 in chips)
    Seat 2: (55694 in chips)
    Seat 3: (20525 in chips)
    Seat 4: (17282 in chips)
    Seat 5: (28545 in chips)

    Seat 6: button villian (42757 in chips) 61 BB, 122 hands 24/15 player ,cbet flop-turn-river 50-75-10, AF 3.2, 3 bet 2%, wsd 30

    Seat 7: SB Villian (40721 in chips) 58 BB, 120 hands 30/17 player , 3bet 7%, Cold Call 29 , wsd 40

    Seat 8: BB hero (33742 in chips) 41 BB
    ante 90
    small blind 350
    big blind 700

    *** HOLE CARDS ***

    Dealt to BB hero [Td Qd]
    folds
    folds
    folds
    folds
    folds
    button villian : raises 700 to 1400

    SB Villian calls 1050

    BB hero [Td Qd] calls 700

    *** FLOP *** [Jc 4d Kd] Potsize 4920

    SB Villian: checks
    BB hero checks
    button villian : checks

    *** TURN *** [Jc 4d Kd] [Ad] Potsize 4920

    SB Villian checks
    BB hero : bets 1624
    button villian folds
    SB Villian : calls 1624

    *** RIVER *** [Jc 4d Kd Ad] [5d] Potsize 8168

    SB Villian : checks
    BB hero : bets 5600
    SB Villian : folds

  • kkep
    replied
    I would have bet the Turn way bigger. I think if they are calling 1/3 on the turn they will also call 2/3+
    Are they going to call with a gut shot (especially with no DBFD) for 1/3 pot bet? I doubt it. So what
    are they calling with?

    I know we aren't suppose to have a calling range from the SB pre flop here but the reality is all the
    hands we should be 3 betting as bluffs most players are calling with and then some.

    Maybe hands like these are in the SB range that are calling a turn bet. Maybe a little less

    44,ATs-A2s,K8s+,QTs+,JdTd,Jd9d,Td9d,Jd8d,Td8d,9d8d,9d7d,8 d7d,8d6d,7d6d,6d5d,5d4d,ATo-A6o,KJo-K7o,QTo

    That's 162 combos that I think will continue form 2/3 pot some players IE calling stations maybe even a pot sized bet.
    The other 120 combos or so are folding as soon as you reach for chips IMO.

    I would have bet about 3500 on the turn and then probably 1/2 pot on river. I don't think they will
    call more than 1/2 pot unless they have JdXx but they might find a hero call with lots of other stuff.
    Last edited by kkep; 06-19-2019, 02:04 PM.

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  • BruceO
    replied
    It depends entirely on your image, but I would say, yes, you did... plus, it’s not just getting called for value that yo7 are aiming for, you missed an opp to get someone to bluff back at you by betting small, as possible block8ng bet

    A small 20-30%(ish) bet tells a consistent story of having completed a weak flush or A-pair on the turn, and you aren’t excited about the 4th diamond, so are blocking,,, which an aggressive player might be willing to test you on.

    I think your bet sizing Is perfect if you hadn’t already bet the turn.

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