Build Big Stack or Preserve Solid Position - Dilemma in Double Stack event

[BruceO]

[kkep]

Wow that is a long tank. I mucked in my mind after about 3 seconds

UTG+1 started the hand with about 20BB or so. When he raises what should
be a strong UTG open I don't think he is ever folding and likely has a very
strong hand. Maybe TT+ AQs+ AQo+

If the big stack plays at all close to reasonably well he should also recognize
that you are strong and the short stack is strong so what is he willing to risk
40BB with? He is strong too or a maniac.QQ+ AK?

Easy fold for me with 40BB. I think we also have to consider that not only do
we have A K blockers but in this scenario it's also highly likely they are
holding some of our outs which would be really bad.

Edit, I just read your last line so you aren't looking for any advice from me
I am nowhere near a Pro.

[lbhafen]

This amateur is folding... Too likely that one of the opponents has a pair and the other has my outs.

[RealJPB]

Factor 1: how often do you expect UTG1 to call? If you can look at him and tell that he's sickened he got shoved on and is likely to fold, that makes a difference.

If you expect to get it in against both players, you're getting 29.6% equity. You have to call 1,135,000 to win ~3,115,000. You need 36% equity, so this is a clear fold.

If you expect UTG1 to fold, you have to call 1,135,000 to win ~2,620,000. You need 43% equity. If the big stack actually has that bluff in his range you're getting the right price.

Factor 2: how often do you expect the Big Stack to be cold 4 bet bluffing?

The cold 4 bet bluff is really rare. Based on your reads that he's generally had it when he went all-in, I don't think I could call off my whole stack here.

[BruceO]

[killtown]

You know what my view was on this when you presented the situation: clear-cut fold, though others here have done a better job articulating what I believed.

[JredA]

If I am reading this right UTG1 has 20-23 bb remaining when the hand starts and is 3-betting your UTG open. Is that correct?

You label this player as a Solid LAG. I can't see any Solid LAG's 3-betting an UTG labeled as "tightish" with anything but a top 2.5% hand that they intend to call off. And 2.5% may be on the loose side.

You also label the "big stack" as a good player who has not seen to get out of line when moving all in. IF he is a good player he also is aware of the stack sizes and images, meaning his likelihood of isolating with a middling pair type of hand is very unlikely because he should know that the opener from UTG is "tightish" and the UTG1 player should be very strong here given they dynamics. With that being said, giving him middling pairs is a best case scenario for you. Most good players are not doing this with middling pairs unless he loves to gamble.

Now, if actual reads are different , then things change. But if both of these players know what they are doing you are dealing with some very strong ranges here.

RealJPB already broke down the numbers involved above, so no need to go over those again.

I would range UTG1 as having something along the lines of KK+, AKo; Weights: AQs:50%, AKo:50%

If the other villain is a good player he may see your tight tendencies and expect you to fold a very large percentage of your opening range and use his stack depth to his advantage. Even with that being said I would conservatively range him as TT+, AQs+, AKo

Harrington's law of bluffing said there is at least a 10% chance of bluffs in a given spot so I usually take the number of combos and add a combo of hand to equal 10%. So in this case equities look like:

[JredA]

Now I would also do this same kind of review for wider ranges and label it the "best case scenario". Then compare what kind of cost you are getting to decide whats the best play given the situation.

[BruceO]

[JredA]

As far as your question goes in regards to building a stack vs stack preservation....

I think many get this concept confused. They assume building a stack means taking unnecessary risks in big spots or making massive bluffs, etc. Perhaps it is what they read online or see on TV, but I think this concept gets very misunderstood.

What should always be remembered though is that there are absolutely times in tournaments where we want to take risks. However, they need to be calculated risks when we have a slight edge. When we have a stack we can push these edges further and apply pressure to those who do not have a stack. One of the edges is having a big stack and being able to apply pressure and put the decision for a tournament life on other players.

But when we don't have this type of stack and we are put to the test ourselves, we have to revert to the hand we have vs the range we are against and factor in the price we are getting. On top of that we need to consider other dynamics, bubble, ICM, etc, etc.

In your situation you do not have a large stack. And we are the one being put to a test. Even though you call it "big stacks" it is only 40bb. And there are probably others at your table that have similar stacks and one all in will greatly change the dynamics.

So we have to revert to figuring out how our hand stacks up against the ranges we are against, what price we are getting and whether or not we are getting a good price to call.

If we are not getting a good price or do not expect to get a good price to call in the given situation, then shoving our chips in the middle should not be considered building a stack. It called getting it in bad.

And folding should not be considered stack preservation. Its simply laying the hand down when we are behind.

[BruceO]

Thanks, helpful... what I was thinking of was comparative probability of making it deep and building stack... if I have (I thought at the time) 30-35% equity, is there a higher prob or equal that I get there by waiting for better spot.

I think, sometimes, that a Pro should be playing the numbers, but for an amateur, taking a few more risks for a big stack may be appropriate.

[Guido]

with less than 40 BB effectively blocking AA and KK playing to win I just go allin here really

I really dont care

if that helps I have watched a ton of sunday million final tables and the phase before by drinking coffee in the morning before going to work

here you are not on ft but you are pretty muc somewhat on the phase before

guess almost every pro would go allin here

you are already deep itm , you want to win this , so take down the tourney or at least try hard to

[BruceO]

[JredA]

I don't see many "pro's" taking this spot.

Why would a pro get it in behind in a less than marginal spot with all his chips committed when he has a 40bb stack and facing a field full of soft recreational players?

They have such an advantage over this field jamming here would be very -EV.

[BruceO]

[JredA]

IMO, you made the right fold.

You just happened to get a flop that allowed you to win the hand the roughly 20% of the time we estimated. 80% of the time you are collecting your things and heading to the door in this spot.

[reeeeeeper]

A lot has been said already, bit generally my rule of thumb is that if I have more than around 50BB then my stack is only going in preflop with AX as the last aggressor with fold equity. 40BB makes it a little trickier, but I'm still leaning fold.

[Turbulence]

What I find really interesting with this hand, holding and stack size is the difference in attitude / thought process between mostly live players and mostly online players. I'm in the mostly online camp and with 40bb and AK I am really struggling to find a fold in this spot. I'm definitely not folding with 30bb or less.

The one thing that might make me hesitate is the 3bet raise (rather than shove) from the UTG1 player - that screams strength that wants action. But, if he is a 'good' player than he does have some 3bet folds from that stack size.

Interesting spot for sure. I think with this stack and action I'm calling off with JJ+ and AK, folding 99 and AQ defo, AQs and TT real headache!

[Guido]

AQs and TT clear fold to me

[BruceO]

Yes, that's clearly a distinction... and with 30bb or less, i definitely wouldn't have been folding either. With 40bb, I thought I'd find a better, +EV spot. It was mainly the fact that i was certain first person would call too, so i'd be facing TWO people rather than one.

Either ONE was a clear call to me, though I might not be excited about it.

I'm going to relive this one for a long time; I can count on one half of one hand the times i've folded AKo pre-flop previously.