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Fun Hand from $100 Nightly

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  • Fun Hand from $100 Nightly

    Taking a break from sharing my Vegas hands because this happened at the $100 Nightly at Horseshoe Hammond this evening.

    32 players left. 8 pay. I have approximately 2.5x the average stack but villain in this hand covers me.

    H AhKs S 60k P BB Blinds 50/400/800

    BU Opens to 2600. I view him as loose and aggressive. More valuey than bluffy on later streets but can definitely value own himself. I 3B to 8k (small note, I prefer going a little bigger out of position. I think 9000-9500 would've been better). BU calls.

    Flop (17,400) AQ7sss I down-bet to 6k, BU makes it 15k. I call.

    Turn (47,400) Ac I check and BU jams.

    If I fold I'll still have 60bb and an above average stack but if I call and win I'll have a stack I can take into the money and beyond.

    I've done some post-game equity calc and range analysis but I'll let you guys respond before I share that.

  • #2
    You block the obvious value jams and QQ, 77 & AQ are just cold decks. They're also pretty unlikely given the scary jam with one more betting round to go, he'd more likely make an inducing bet with those. On the off chance he flopped a flush, you still have a redraw to a better one or a boat. Otherwise he could be on AX trying to make a flush draw pay max. Unlikely he has a draw himself, but I suppose something like QhJs is possible. A complete air move from this particular player seems possible but unlikely. You're too far from the money for ICM to be a major consideration.

    I don't see how you could ever fold this with the information given. If you had some read or if it was a nit then possibly, but...

    Comment


    • #3
      Pretty gross spot for sure, but with top trips and nut flush draw think I am going broke here every time. You are drawing thin against his nut hands AQ, A7, 77, QQ (if he just flats this pre) but your not dead. It's not inconceivable that you actually have him crushed if he has AxTs or AxJs, I've seen many players spaz out in these spots with this kind of hand.

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      • #4
        Calling 100% and like Turbulence said, really gross spot.

        Comment


        • #5
          Using the charts provided by JL which I will call optimum you have them crushed 91% - 9%.
          That said I don't know anyone using that range in a $100 buy in. But even after I adjusted
          their range to something more along the lines of what I think we typically see here it really
          doesn't get any better (89% - 11%) for them.

          Comment


          • RealJPB
            RealJPB commented
            Editing a comment
            Something seems off there. In the equity calc I was doing we’re at 25-40% depending on villain’s range. I don’t see how Villian could be raising flop and jamming turn with a range we’re 89/11 against.

          • kkep
            kkep commented
            Editing a comment
            I'll post JL's range and the range I came up with if you like?

          • reeeeeeper
            reeeeeeper commented
            Editing a comment
            You can't do the calc against their whole range, just the part of their range they'd raise flop and jam turn.

        • #6
          JL's range Bu RFI vs 3-bet SB/BB
          I believe this is unrealistic vs the vast majority of daily $100 buy in players.



          I feel like this range is probably closer yet still wider than what I would expect them to turn up calling with here.
          Nothing changes dramatically if we have them 4 betting for value with QQ AK AQ nor does it change
          when we start folding out some more marginal hands.The nittiest range I used still has us at 86% this range has us at 90%.

          These are pre-flop ranges


          Last edited by kkep; 06-12-2019, 02:19 PM.

          Comment


          • RealJPB
            RealJPB commented
            Editing a comment
            But like reeeeeeper said above, isn’t his range on the turn the most important factor?

          • kkep
            kkep commented
            Editing a comment
            Of course. If he's jamming the turn would he be doing that with the nuts?
            That doesn't make sense to me. . I suppose if you believe he will jam the nuts on the turn you have to fold.
            Otherwise we are ahead of the rest of his range by 80%

        • #7
          I think you're probably chopping a good % of the time at this point, with freeroll on the spades; but nearly equally likely that he's shoving to protect two small connected spades. Given how deep you were to start, his range can be very wide. On first day of the Main Event, I think I could find a fold here (probably play more passively from beginning)...

          But in this tourney, with the outs you have, if he happens to have AQ, QQ or 77, it's just unlucky ... I make a crying call

          Comment


          • #8
            With draws to nf , full House i am calling off here , you might have the best Hand already

            Comment

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