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Big50 Bluff Catcher

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  • Big50 Bluff Catcher

    Another spot from Big 50 Day 1

    H AhTd P BU S 77k B 300/600/600
    UTG limps. CO Limps. I make it 2600, UTG and CO call

    Flop (9300) KQ4cc I bet 2k and only CO calls (this was clearly some bad math in game as I'm guessing I was trying to bet 1/3rd and accidentally went about 1/5th pot)

    Turn (13,300) Ts goes check check

    River (13,300) Kh CO leads 5200

    CO is fairly new to the table so we have very limited info. Asian male in his 30s or 40s.

    Would you bluff catch only needing to be right 22% of the time here?

  • #2
    I would raise to 3000 preflop

    Yeah better bet Flop 1/3 As you have found out

    no i would fold with no More reads 90% of times he has a better Hand

    imagine vs how many combos you lose

    Count them and Post how many

    straight draw came in

    there are missed flush draws possible but they dont Reach 22% by far , Count the missed flush combos and Post them


    • #3
      I'd call... pay him off.

      First, What does he think you have? AT/Axs/any pair/any suited connector... mainly, I'd call because your range is pretty wide and you're at top end of what you've represented.

      2nd, what's his range... A Straight got there, yes, but doesn't seem the most likely (AJ in CO raises, i think)...
      K is definitely possible, but less likely due to runout...

      So, Yes, we lose to any Q and QJs/QTs/Q9s are most likely here... but in CO, again, is he limping w/ those or more likely to raise?

      Seems to me that his range includes a LOT of Ts (JT/T9/T8) and a bunch of middle/small pairs (22-77) which he was set-mining with
      I definitely think that makes your equity is higher than 22%...


      • #4
        Preflop size is fine.

        Flop size too small as you said. Given the numerous draws you could go up to around 60% IMO, but probably 40% or so is fine.

        Turn fine.

        River I call there 100%. Your line looks like a weak flop stab, he could easily bluff here with all of his misses. I give him a range like this on the river:

        88-44, Ac9c-Ac2c, KTs-K5s, Q8s+, J9s+, Jc8c, T9s, Tc8c, 9c7c+, 8c6c+, 7c5c+, 64s, 6c5c, 54s, 43s, 3c2c, ATo-A9o, A4o, KJo-K9o, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o

        You have 50% equity against that range. I've messed with adding and removing parts of this range but it never gets lower than 45%, usually higher. Removing all pairs TX and below gets you to 30%, still a call. If you take out some of the value hands I left in there that would probably check the river and some KX that would raise your weak flop stab too, it leans his range more towards the bluff end.

        You bet so small on the flop his range stays so wide. I don't see how you can possibly fold here.
        Last edited by reeeeeeper; 06-11-2019, 04:49 PM.


        • Guido
          Guido commented
          Editing a comment
          Tell me what games are you playing? High Roller?

        • reeeeeeper
          reeeeeeper commented
          Editing a comment
          Is that some sort of flex? Weird, but ok.

          We're talking about the Big 50, what does it matter what games I play?

      • #5
        I think the beauty of betting so small on the flop allows you to barrel the turn as well.
        So many players call flop bets so wide I think we have to barrel again. If he calls the
        turn he will still likely check river where I would be fine showing down and probably
        losing with my T. Not sure what I would do in real time if he still donk leads river but
        probably fold here after they called flop and turn and then lead river.


        • #6
          Thanks for the feedback on this one guys. Results: Villian turns over 96cc for the missed flush draw.


          • #7
            I also favor a turn c-bet ... and river fold .. but seeing you put "Asian" in there.... must have your reason that tipped the scale there.