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Flopped nuts/straight vs flush draw - do you ever survive these run-outs?

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  • Flopped nuts/straight vs flush draw - do you ever survive these run-outs?

    J, which I think is a great card as it brings a back-door flush draw. I check again and the Button bets 17.5BBs, leaving himself only about 25BBs behind - I would have 27.5BBs behind if I call. I figure a pair plus hearts-draw is more likely here than 2 pair. Not bothered if the board pairs on the river, but a heart could face an awkward bet and be unlikely to get away. Pot would be 77BBs with a call and I decide that it's best to jam the remaining 27.5BBs. Button thinks for a while and makes the call.

    Rolls over K9 for top-pair with a turned flush-draw and a worse gutshot straight-draw. River is 8 and I lose, and am knocked-out in the same orbit.

    Now I know that this is just normal variance, but this is the third small tournament in a row that I've gone out to a rivered-flush when playing out-of-position with a big hand in what builds to a massive pot through the villain betting into me - the other two were smaller hands K-high straight and two-pair AK, but same result.

    It's negative chips EV not getting it all-in in these spots, and probably same for tournament results EV, but I was wondering if anyone plays these hands differently and doesn't get stacked so often, maybe by raising smaller and C-betting small to build some fold-equity and maybe play slightly smaller pots, but risking big multi-way pots out-of-position. Seems like a waste though and -ve EV - I'm inclined to continue playing these like this and just accept that 20% of the time I'm going to get eliminated and the other 80% double-up. FWIW I'm not interested in min-cashing in these events - winning is the goal.

    Thanks for your thoughts!
    Last edited by brettbrett; 06-01-2019, 10:32 PM.

  • #2
    I would have C Bet the flop 1/2 pot and taken the 22 BB. If he calls, I am pushing on the turn. The other option for me would have been to check/raise the flop, in this hand, you check, he bets 10 BB, I would push and let him decide if he wants to try and draw out. If he folds you win 33 BB. Every time I try to slow play, they get there. I think to myself there you go with the fancy play syndrome. Take the 22 BB with the C Bet or the 33 BB with the check/raise, you only win 10 BB on average with pocket aces. So winning 22/33 BB is like getting AA twice/three times and having them hold.


    • #3
      As above....put simply never slow playing a flopped str8 in 3bet pot - especially a broadway str8 as opponent is going to connect with this board a lot and will rarely bluff at it with under pairs.


      • #4
        That guy is probably never folding no matter how you played that hand. I think. C-bet is mandatory tho, probably 2/3-3/4 pot. I know that makes the stacks awkward but that flop should hit the B calling range pretty good and I want to start getting chips in before the board gets scarier for them. We could have jammed turn with the lead which should put him in a tough spot. Once you gave up the lead the V priced himself when in when he bet and then you jammed.


        • #5
          When he calls the 9bb total preflop you have to give him credit for something.

          On a board like this it's either going to hit him fairly hard so it will be easy to get chips in the middle, or he'll have missed completely with an underpair type hand and won't go any further anyway.

          You managed to isolate a single player in a large pot where you flopped the nuts with the initiative. You've just got to cbet here without question.


          • #6
            Against some better players you're sunk regardless. 9bbs here creates a <3 SPR pot making it a sticky call with pair and draws+. You're going to be run down by a lot of players with this math.

            Jamming pre seems nuts but it's sound, or stop and go on a 12bb raise pre. That 3bet was too small.