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Some overbet scenarios

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  • Some overbet scenarios

    I will try and add some range analysis later but my impression is that during the play I acted more on HUD stats, online reads, and their line than on the spot range. Let`s see.
    HAND 1:
    Fairly tight villain, 20/17/0. Overbet is on the line to make it seem like a bluff.
    PokerStars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $1/$2 - 6 players
    Replay this hand on Pokeit

    UTG (Hero): $309.23 (155 bb)
    MP: $378.96 (189 bb)
    CO: $220.54 (110 bb)
    BU: $529.31 (265 bb)
    SB: $519.46 (260 bb)
    BB: $214.82 (107 bb)

    Pre-Flop: ($3) Hero is UTG with 2:spade: 2:club:
    Hero raises to $6, 1 fold, CO calls $6, 3 players fold

    Flop: ($15) 7:club: 2:diamond: 9:heart: (2 players)
    Hero bets $8, CO calls $8

    Turn: ($31) 7:diamond: (2 players)
    Hero bets $18, CO calls $18

    River: ($67) 8:diamond: (2 players)
    Hero bets $86, CO calls $86

    HAND 2:
    Villain cbets a lot, generally aggressive on the flop and river but not turn. 27/15/4.
    I actually thought he might have an Ace but he didn;t bet the turn making draws a bit unlikely. Seems like a dangerous river to overbet?
    Against this range, I'm actually way behind it seems...
    PokerStars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $1/$2 - 6 players
    Replay this hand on Pokeit

    UTG (Hero): $566.79 (283 bb)
    MP: $330.39 (165 bb)
    CO: $632.09 (316 bb)
    BU: $349.82 (175 bb)
    SB: $99.13 (50 bb)
    BB: $317.39 (159 bb)

    Pre-Flop: ($3) Hero is UTG with T:spade: J:spade:
    Hero raises to $6, MP 3-bets to $22, 4 players fold, Hero calls $16

    Flop: ($47) 9:spade: T:heart: A:heart: (2 players)
    Hero checks, MP bets $30, Hero calls $30

    Turn: ($107) 6:heart: (2 players)
    Hero checks, MP checks

    River: ($107) 8:spade: (2 players)
    Hero bets $124, MP folds

    HAND 3:
    Preflop call is just for defense. Villain steals at 44%
    27/23/7
    Flop call is a float as it seems unlikely cards are in his range.
    Turn raise is a bluff for the same reason + he overbets the turn to which I was thinking bluff overbet.
    River is just a follow through but obviously not happy about the turn call. His river check when he is normally aggressive implies a missed draw or marginal hand,
    I find this a weird one since the range analysis is telling me a T on the flop is more likely for his range than A, K, J. I'm actually w ay behind with a T, 9, 8. It's only when the 1st card on flop is a 7 or lower that it starts to be better.
    PokerStars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $1/$2 - 6 players
    Replay this hand on Pokeit

    UTG: $267.73 (134 bb)
    MP: $184.08 (92 bb)
    CO: $334.75 (167 bb)
    BU: $105.13 (53 bb)
    SB: $263.17 (132 bb)
    BB (Hero): $499.95 (250 bb)

    Pre-Flop: ($3) Hero is BB with Q:heart: 5:heart:
    4 players fold, SB raises to $6, Hero calls $4

    Flop: ($12) T:spade: 4:diamond: 3:spade: (2 players)
    SB bets $3.59, Hero calls $3.59

    Turn: ($19.18) 9:diamond: (2 players)
    SB bets $24.98, Hero raises to $60, SB calls $35.02

    River: ($139.18) 7:club: (2 players)
    SB checks, Hero bets $148, SB folds
    Last edited by Bentley; 05-15-2019, 06:50 AM.

  • #2
    I really like hand 1 & 2 to a as it shows are at least balancing out between value and bluffs.

    Hand 3 I think you where fairly lucky to some extent in that opponent most likely picked up a big diamond combo draw on the turn like Ax with gutshot an nut FD or QdJd hence the overbet, but he could equally have been trapping the flop with an overpair. Your line with checking back flop and then raising his turn over bet doesn't make all that much sense i.e. you are repping an extremely thin value range pretty much all of which would have bet flop when checked to. If I had been your opponent and had time to think it through, it might well have piled my stack in your face if I had a big combo draw on the turn.

    Don't over rely on HUD stats, use them for back up not main decision making. Thinking through yours and opponents ranges and acting accordingly will provide much more solid plays on your part. That said, if you've found an exploitable leak in an opponent - EXPLOIT IT!

    Comment


    • Bentley
      Bentley commented
      Editing a comment
      he thought for a long time on the turn before calling. Does seem to make sense he might have picked up a diamond draw.

  • #3
    What were the hand samples on the HUD stats?

    Comment


    • Bentley
      Bentley commented
      Editing a comment
      not many...30 in Hand 1. 100 for both hand 2 and 3. Not dissimilar to tourney samples when playing zoom, Player pool changes frequently every day.

  • #4
    Hand 1 seems ok, but I really dislike hand 2. Overbetting with a marginal hand there just doesn't make any sense whatsoever. Are you saying that you decided that you wanted to turn a hand that you already decided had showdown value into a bluff?

    Hand 3, just not the right hand to take a shot with on the turn. If anything, I would have raised the flop with the BD potential of that hand. But when all the BD draws whiff your hand is just junk. You really would have better hands to bluff there.

    Comment


    • Bentley
      Bentley commented
      Editing a comment
      Hand 2 was more like I thought he had the Ace or a pair hand and might fold it out. Presumably you dislike it because not a lot of people fold their TP and there's 2 other draws on the board.
      Hand 3: you don't read anything into an overbet by villain on the turn. I don't see this normally in the 1/2 zoom games on the turn. It does seem like a 44% steal this board hits his range better...
      Last edited by Bentley; 05-15-2019, 02:40 PM.
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