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JJ line

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  • JJ line

    VIllain is 27/14/0 with a steal of 38%
    I could certainly RR preflop but he'll likely fold out to a 4bet so I elect to call.
    I play the flop like a pair type hand just calling as he cbets 100% so I check call.
    The turn he only cbets 50%. My question is whether I should donk the turn and if, as played, the check call on the river is ok. I am significantly ahead of his range on the turn and river, something like 70-80%. Even against a 14% raising pf range, I am 58% on the river.

    PokerStars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $1/$2 - 6 players
    Replay this hand on Pokeit

    UTG: $200.00 (100 bb)
    MP: $240.45 (120 bb)
    CO: $123.04 (62 bb)
    BU: $1,328.02 (664 bb)
    SB (Hero): $326.79 (163 bb)
    BB: $598.99 (299 bb)

    Pre-Flop: ($3) Hero is SB with J:diamond: J:heart:
    3 players fold, BTN raises to $5, Hero calls $4, 1 fold

    Flop: ($12) T:diamond: 2:diamond: 7:spade: (2 players)
    Hero checks, BTN bets $6.27, Hero calls $6.27

    Turn: ($24.54) 5:club: (2 players)
    Hero checks, BTN checks

    River: ($24.54) Q:heart: (2 players)
    Hero checks, BTN bets $19.81, Hero calls $19.81

  • #2
    Unless I'm missing something, wouldn't you be 3betting, not 4betting preflop? This seems like a pretty mandatory raise preflop, but if you are slow playing pre I think you have to raise flop or turn.


    • #3
      Raise preflop.


      • Bentley
        Bentley commented
        Editing a comment
        Obviously JJ stronger than TT but I was thinking along these lines. The différence being I'm against a steal raise but also a player that folds to a 3bet 100%. Edit: understood... your point below about number of hands.
        Last edited by Bentley; 05-14-2019, 12:47 PM.

      • jjpregler
        jjpregler commented
        Editing a comment
        This hand and the hand you linked are vastly different. TT versus a UTG+2 range is marginal and calling is standard. JJ versus a button range is a monster and raising is standard.

      • Bentley
        Bentley commented
        Editing a comment

    • #4


      • #5
        Honestly, I am trying to see why I didn't raise. I can see now that Villain's fold to 3bet and fold to 4bet are both 100%
        I thought he would fold out pre..
        Last edited by Bentley; 05-14-2019, 06:08 AM.


        • jjpregler
          jjpregler commented
          Editing a comment
          So. He folds.

          What is your sample size of his 3bet fold %. 100% 3 bet folds cannot be a valid number and it is probably from a small sample size. And therefore you are making an incorrect conclusion about his reactions to a 3 bet based on a skewed sample size.

          Before you give me any numbers, let me impart my thoughts on sample sizes:

          Less than 30 opportunities to fold to a 3 bet - sample size invalid

          30 - 100 3 bet fold opportunites - we can start considering this a probable read, but not conclusive as the sample is still low.

          Over 100 sample size is starting to become a valid read.

          So how many hands total sample size do you need for a valid fold to 3 bet%. About 5,000 hands. If his PFR is about 20% and he is 3bet 10% of the time he raises, it will take about 5,000 total hands to obtain a valid fold to 3 bet read.

          Up to 100 hands total, the only stat you has any reliability is VPIP/PFR. After 100 hands some other stats of situations that occur more frequently start becoming relevant, but not enough for a confirmed read. Think like steal% and c-bet flop might start having about 30 samples to start using a guide by now.

          But even if he folds 70%. So what? He is just handing you $8 without a fight. He has equity in that $8 that he is just surrendering to your 3 bet. Is that a bad result?

          Instead you allowed him to recognize equity by allowing him to see a flop.