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Rivering effective nuts oop - check to the aggressor or betting for value ?

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  • Rivering effective nuts oop - check to the aggressor or betting for value ?

    in theory when Rivering effective nuts oop - should I check to the aggressor or betting for value myself ?

    the villian was the aggressor all the way down

    I was always thinking you must be checking as the hero to induce but on one of the last hand quizzes JL recommended to - of course - betting for value (115.000 chips)

    I think there is no general anwer

    if the villian is very bluffy on rivers checking (or perhaps betting tiny) should be better , also if a lot of draws has missed

    otherwise betting should be better ?

  • #2
    There is a general answer.

    A theoretically correct villain should bet about 70% of the time when checked to on the river if he was the aggressor throughout the hand. (Of course this differs based on the board runout. If your nuts is hidden it should not affect him much at all. If instead there are 4 hearts on the board that will definitely affect his betting frequencies.) Then he would have to call the bet with about 2/3 of the hands he already bet with.

    So in theory against a GTO opponent, you are supposed to check to the aggressor.

    Just look at this in numbers: pot $100 He bets $65 and you raise to say $150. Let's assume he never raises you back with the second nuts.

    30% of the time he checks behind = $100 profit * 30% = $30 profit

    70% * 30% he bets/folds = $165 profit * 21% = $34.65 profit

    70% * 70% he bets calls = $315 profit * 49% = $154.35 profit

    Total profit for a check raise = $219.

    This is the GTO based player. But no almost no one is going to play with a GTO frequency there. So really this is the best case scenario.

    The best case if you lead out for $65 is he continues 70% of the time. Of that 70% 15% of the time he raises to $150 and you can shove for $500 and he calls that 66% of the time.

    So we have 70% * 85% * $165 = $98.18 profit

    70% * 15% * 33% * $315 = $10.91 profit

    70% * 15% * 66% * $600 = $41.58 profit

    Total profits to lead out against a GTO frequency player = $150.67

    So against a solid GTO frequency standard, check/raising is much more profitable.

    Once you get reads on players and learn of their frequency deviations, then you can start re-doing the math to see if based on their frequencies whehter leading is better than the standard check/raise plan. But deviations should be evidence based. You should have worked it out in your study if they only bet this often, but will call or raise this often then leading is better. If you haven't worked it out, don't deviate.

    Sometimes the river card affects that frequency. Like the 4th heart hitting. But then again, if he has the second or third nuts, letting him keep the betting lead might stack him where if you lead he might just click call.

    But this is one of the unfortunate occurrences to playing OOP. That is why position is so important. If he leads the river great, you raise. If he checks you bet. You can't go wrong in position. But you can make mistakes that cost you a ton of money OOP.
    Last edited by jjpregler; 04-23-2019, 06:39 AM.

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    • #3
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      Last edited by MattHughes; 01-06-2021, 08:33 AM.

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      • #4
        Obviously you have to know your opponent pretty well. I find that people rarely bet the river any more without a very strong hand. It’a a leak of the population. I bet it thin a lot.

        anyway, the last few times I’ve checked the river to try to check raise the villain hasn’t fallen into the trap. Small sample size of course.

        It also depends a lot on which card gives you the nuts, and how obvious of a bad card it is to the villain.

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        • #5
          I agree there isn't general answer but like checking a lot. Do I contradict with my own action?

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