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99 vs 3-bet

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  • 99 vs 3-bet

    1/2 NLH. Effective stack size 300BB. Hero raises with 99 to 5BB from LJ. Button Calls, BB 3 bets to 15BB. I call, button calls. Not a frequent 3 bettor so I am putting him on AK, JJ or up, Maybe AQ suited or a bluff, which he doesnt tend to do preflop. Background: Villain is a good player, fairly aggressive but overbluffs (or bluffs correctly maybe according to GTO). Have played before several times. He knows I tend to look him up more than most on the river. Flop is 8 6 3 rainbow. Pot is 45.5BB. He leads out for 22.5BB. I call, button folds. Turn is 2. Pot is now 90.5BB. He bets 32.5BB. With some thought, I call. I figure if he is bluffing with AK maybe he gives up on the river or an A or K makes it an easy decision if he bets. River is 3. Pot is now 155BB. He thinks and moves all in with remaining 160BB. Getting roughly 2 to 1, is this a call?

  • #2
    I know this is live so players are weird, but your read is sort of confusing. Good, fairly aggressive player is very unlikely to be an infrequent 3-bettor, or to ever squeeze to this size OOP. Kind of important to remember the decent players at 1/2 are not good, they have huge gaping leaks that need to be exploited. I actually like the range you assigned because this screams value. This deep 99 is probably a fine call because our implied odds are fantastic.

    Now we're assuming he bluffs at or above the correct frequency, but look at the range we gave him, only AK and AQs can be bluffs, So he has 24 combos of value and 20 of bluffs. Definitely think calling flop is correct. But let's say he bets range on flop, then keeps bluffing turn and river 75% of the time each. This gives us ~32% equity on the river so just shy of what we need to call. If he bluffs a little more it's fine to call, a little less and it becomes a pretty bad call. Dicey spot, I would probably lean towards a fold though, preflop screams value, he triples which isn't super common at 1/2, even agg players aren't doing a ton of squeeze OOP, bet, bet , jam bluffs. Worth considering in these big spots though, it seems like a huge decision for a 475BB pot but it's really a decision for like 2%-5% of that pot so like 9-23BB which is still very significant but wortth remembering.

    Nitpicking, he's not leading out on the flop, it's only a lead if he bets from OOP into the last street aggressor

    Comment


    • raywarrior
      raywarrior commented
      Editing a comment
      Thank you for the reply. I meant good at 1/2. There doesn't necessarily have to be a distinction. 3 betting infrequently (and linearly) can be the right play at the 1/2 games that I play in as people are often overcalling. Raising as a bluff is not as good of a play at 1/2 as GTO or a good 5/10 player might recommend. As for bluffing, he doesn't tend to bluff 3 bet pre but will frequently bluff post flop when he is the raiser. I figured 16 combos of AK and maybe 4 AQ suited as bluffs vs. 18 AA, KK, QQ. I would think jacks (and queens maybe) might check a street in there. Bottom line is I folded and asked for a courtesy show and he had AK. I gave him the fist bump for having the balls to do it (and to encourage it, of course).
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