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an easy river fold?

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  • an easy river fold?

    Hi - a hand from a brief session earlier struck me as interesting. It's not a hand in which a whole lot happened bar an oversize bet on the river, but that in itself gave me pause to question my play.

    Hand below + my thoughts - these only to show my thinking, they may well be flawed. The villain was new to me - by this stage had only played 3 hands with him and there was nothing of interest from these.

    Cheers

    No Limit Hold'em $0.05/$0.10
    PokerStars
    8 players
    Formatted by pokercopilot.com: Poker HUD for Mac and Windows

    Stacks:
    UTG - UTG (
    $17.81)
    UTG+1 - UTG+1 (
    $9.92)
    MP - Hero (
    $10.06)
    MP2 - MP2 ($10.00)
    CO - CO (
    $28.08)
    BTN - BTN (
    $22.80)
    SB - SB (
    $13.72)
    BB - BB (
    $15.85)

    Preflop: (
    $0.15, 8 players) Hero is MP with T♠Q♠
    2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, 4 folds, BB calls $0.20

    Flop:
    K♦7♣A♦ ($0.65, 2 players - Hero: $9.76, BB: $15.55)
    BB checks,
    Hero bets $0.31, BB calls $0.31

    Turn:
    T♣ ($1.27, 2 players - Hero: $9.45, BB: $15.24)
    BB checks,
    Hero bets $0.61, BB calls $0.61

    River:
    7♥ ($2.49, 2 players - Hero: $8.84, BB: $14.63)
    BB bets $3.10, 1 fold, Uncalled bet of $3.10 returned to BB

    Total Pot:
    $2.49

    BB wins $2.35



    My thoughts - Q10s is on the looser side of what I'd open with from that position, but felt fine.
    I cbet as had a draw to the straight. Ditto turn, though checking here felt viable.

    Villain then bets relatively big on the river. My instinct is to fold, I'm obviously not beating much, however I'm increasingly aware that the big river bet can be v polarised and so there must be a good chance it's a bluff.

    Tbh, even factoring that in it felt a fairly easy fold, especially as I was doing well at the table and felt I had an overall edge. Just move on to the next hand. However, is there merit in calling here and just accepting that a good proportion of the time I'll be beat, but I may win often enough? My sense is he may well have missed a draw and knows only a big bet can now win him the pot.



    Edit: Just realised I was only 6 cents up at this table, which I wouldn't deem doing well! I was on a few tables and doing OK overall!
    Last edited by Jon B; 07-21-2021, 02:18 PM.

  • #2
    QTss from the LJ def a fine open.

    On the flop we have a huge range advantage which generally leads to us betting very frequently and small (33% pot) but given we also have a substantial nut advantage and the BB should have decent range connectivity so I wouldn't mind betting our whole range for 67% pot here, even if we don't range bet I like betting the gut shot large.

    Turn is interesting, my first instinct is to check here turning showdown value, but TX blocks 2pair which make it a good bluff, and we don't really have a ton of bluffs available, we're just all over this board. We could potentially bet all our 2pair for value, check our other AX and KX and then bluff everything else , betting 120% pot.

    On the river we need villain to be bluffing ~35% of the time. With no read this is tough just because some spazzy fish will do this with an A, and they should have some 7X as well. That being said they also have a ton of busted draws and probably know that the 7 is a scare card for us. With no read I would just defend MDF here which would be like AT and better

    Comment


    • Jon B
      Jon B commented
      Editing a comment
      Cheers - thanks for the feedback.

      Nice to know that a lot of my thinking was seemingly along the right lines - I'm trying to think at a higher level while playing hands, but without that making every decision seem overly complex in the moment. I must admit I wasn't really thinking about blockers on the turn and need to work on this.

      On the river, I tried to think through MDF and knew that as it was a bit over pot size the MDF would be lower than 50% and I guess around 40% doing some mental estimation. I think my sense was that I can't over fold, but this wasn't the hill to die on - def don;t need a monster to call, but my marginal holding didn't cut it.

      I think they bet quickly on the river, but I'm wary of reading too much into this. It could mean they hit a seven, but I think it's more likely that if that had happened they'd take a second to think how to bet. It may be that they had resolved to bet about that size either way if they hit their draw or missed as the bluff, and so it was a quick action regardless. However, it seems risky to make decisions based on that sort of guesswork.
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