Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Set of Aces on Flush-Completing Turn OOP Against LAG

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Set of Aces on Flush-Completing Turn OOP Against LAG

    In a 2/5 cash game, I held AsAh on the HJ with action folded around to me, with about $1,100 in stack. I opened for $20. I got called by a fish on the CO with about $800 in stack and a solid LAG (5/10 caliber play) on the BTN. The blinds folded. Pot $67.

    Flop Qd6h2d. Against most 2/5 players, I would c-bet this, but with the solid hyper aggressive player on the button, I decided to check. CO checked. BTN bet $35. I check-raised to $110. CO folded. BTN called. Pot $287.

    Turn Ad, giving me top set but completing the flush draw. Check-check.

    River Jc. I bet $160, hoping to get value from one-pair and two-pair hands. I did not think he would check back the turn very often with a flush. He raised to $350. I felt he was overvaluing 2-pair or bluffing too often for me to lay down top set, so I called. He showed Jd5d.

    In another hand a few months ago, I actually did fold a set to a raise on the river that completed a flush. The raiser showed a 5-high flush, which he clearly should not raise with if I am going to fold sets. But this was a much more aggressive player to whom I did not feel I could fold.

  • #2
    Let's work backwards knowing what we now know after he showed down. 1st let's consider our assumption that he's a solid LAG, could be true but for that to be true he needs to correctly assume that this table is veryyyyy soft. Jd5d is not a good call in this spot, unless he correctly assumes both you and the CO are super fish.



    This is what I'm assuming about his betting range on the flop, he probably doesn't bluff all these combos and maybe he bets more QX but let's create a worst possible scenario on river. B response to XR:


    What's wonky is he probably 3-bets this flop some percent of the time with sets and draws which hurts us later but let's assume he has his sets and 2pair some percent of the time when we reach turn. To your point, he almost definitely bets his turned flushes at some frequency. If he checked literally all of his flushes, the most he can have by my count is 22 combos of flushes. If he did and also took this line with 6 combos of sets, 2 pair, or bluffs we can profitably call. If we assume he bet half his flushes on the turn, and he has 3 combos of hands we beat, we can call. He basically needs to not have a flush ~22% of the time.

    If we start to notice this player is only raising river with the nuts as many live players do maybe we fold here but based on info provided I would take this same line if this hand happened again against this Villain

    Comment


    • Dilly
      Dilly commented
      Editing a comment
      It definitely should, assume the green is call and the grey is fold

    • mriebel
      mriebel commented
      Editing a comment
      And you assume he NEVER re-raises my XR.

    • Dilly
      Dilly commented
      Editing a comment
      mriebel, I identified right after that image how he almost definitely does XR some frequency, and then explained out how that might influence our situation

  • #3
    In a multi-way pot, you should definitely tend to play more straight-forward and not in a tricky manner. If the button is indeed a good player, he is going to play in a straight forward manner to your c-bet. I think you definitely have to c-bet this to about $45 on the flop.

    When you check the button is again going to play straight forward, he should know not to have too many bluffs in a multi-way pot, so his bet is tilted towards value. So you should just call if you check. By c/r AA you overplayed it on the flop and then got yourself into trouble with a pot already larger than it should have been.

    Comment


    • mriebel
      mriebel commented
      Editing a comment
      I may check 100% on the flop OOP against a solid LAG. See my post below.

  • #4
    This is roughly what I would do on the flop, following the button’s bet. I call with AJo and ATo only if I have the ace of hearts.
    Click image for larger version

Name:	70E8635F-8CCD-40BC-A915-A40C9FCAA64D.png
Views:	18
Size:	98.6 KB
ID:	49137

    On the turn, I check 100%. On the river, I bet the following range. I do thin value bet with my aces and KK since I suspect his range has a lot of queens with which he would bet the flop but check back the turn.
    Click image for larger version

Name:	617C1018-6E19-47A9-A643-E73FEA8CB951.png
Views:	16
Size:	90.4 KB
ID:	49139

    After he raises, I bluff shove KK with Kd, since I block the nut flush.

    Click image for larger version

Name:	BE1A7FD3-3C2D-40AF-A812-D1DA988B3C59.png
Views:	16
Size:	90.8 KB
ID:	49140
    Attached Files

    Comment

    Working...
    X