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  • Turn decision

    Hand played at 10NL Zoom on Pokerstars:

    https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/524RcOF7E

    What would you do on the turn here?

    1. Fold, although probably too nitty. It's just that population rarely check raises turn as a bluff here. He also commits himself with that raise size. In game I thought he could be quite flush heavy, but now not so much. Most players would just double barrel here with a flush I think.

    2. Just call and hope he slows down. In this exact runout, he might have been concerned about the flush coming in.

    3. Go all in as I did. I figured there's no point in having a call there due to the fact we are quite committed. So it's a shove or a fold. I preferred shoving hoping he is on a flush.

    4. Of course I could just check and probably call a smaller bet on the river. Checking on the turn from preflop aggressor is quite weak and I did not want to give him a free card.

    What do you think? Villain is 21/13 with 6.3 3bet.

  • #2
    I am not sure you could do anything different. His check on the turn could mean he is on a flush draw. His check/raise could also be that he has AQ, KQ of hearts and hoping you have a queen, so you he could raise with the redraw. Not sure how you are going to fold TPTK. I think the hand is just a cooler.

    Thanks!

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    • #3
      My range on the turn after he checks:


      In general my thought is to just call down here once he check raises since it's so under-bluffed, but he probably can't fold his flush draws to a rip, and we have 50%+ equity even if his range is exactly KQ AQ QQ+....rip is probably fine

      Comment


      • #4
        The Baluga Theorem | BalugaWhale Poker Theorem (thepokerbank.com)

        While this is not true on solvers, it is still valid among the population, especially in micros and low stakes.

        In this hand if you use Jonathan's hand categories, on the flop when he checks to you, AQ is a premium made hand. Once he check-raises, it is no longer a premium made. It is marginal at best. You played it as if it is still premium when you 3bet the turn. This is way overplaying the value of your hand.

        Actually think of it this way, Top-Top is near the bottom of your premium range on the turn. Actually, I just filled out a range analyzer in a 3 bet pot, Top-Top here is either the very bottom of our premium range or the top of our marginal made hand when he checks to you.

        Now that I examined the range, you might be better to check your range after he checks the turn. I kept in QQ and KK on the flop to protect our calling range. If you are betting, it is coming from these hands and after his check, maybe it is even better for these to check to allow any river bluffs to stay in his range.

        If you call, this is most likely a fold to a river bet.
        Last edited by jjpregler; 05-06-2021, 05:31 AM.

        Comment


        • #5
          I would call the turn, and call any river that is not a K and does not bring in the flush.

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