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Would you call this jam?

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  • Would you call this jam?

    PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    UTG: $3.49
    MP: $22.70
    CO: $11.01
    Hero (BTN): $48.69
    SB: $11.55
    BB: $5.50

    SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

    Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has 6:spade: 4:spade:

    UTG raises to $0.20, MP calls $0.20, CO calls $0.20, Hero calls $0.20, SB calls $0.15, BB calls $0.10

    Flop: ($1.20, 6 players) 4:heart: J:club: 6:diamond:
    SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets $1.30, MP calls $1.30, fold, Hero raises to $4.66, fold, fold, UTG calls $1.99 and is all-in, MP raises to $22.50 and is all-in, Hero????

  • #2
    Wow. Don't know. It looks like he has you beat, but you block the most likely hands he could have with this bet - 66 and 44. I guess JJ could be in his range. I doubt anyone finds a bluff with 75s or a BDFD here. The solvers might, but not the player population.

    This is a spot to look at your MDF. Your shared MDF in this spot is 15% for both you and UTG. Since you already 2 bet, you should have a higher % of the share. So if 64s is the top 15% of your range at MDF this should be a call.

    With a bet this size, he should be bluffing about 38%. If he is not bluffing (or overvaluing a hand like KJ) at that ratio, you can fold and ignore MDF.

    Now that I wrote that, I'm even more of don't know. He has 3 combos of JJ available, and only 1 combo each of 44 and 66. But he has 24 combos of KJ/QJ available that he might be overplaying. I don't think this stake player bluffs often here. Not often enough to call based on bluff to value ratio. But I have seen plenty overvalue top pair. If he has 0 bluffs, but overvalues JX often enough it is a call.

    So, if you think the frequency of his bluffs + the times he overvalues JX < or = 38%, you should call.
    Last edited by jjpregler; 05-03-2021, 06:40 AM.

    Comment


    • mriebel
      mriebel commented
      Editing a comment
      Against Jx, he still has a risk of being counterfeited. So he will not win 100% of the time against those hands.

    • jjpregler
      jjpregler commented
      Editing a comment
      I never said we are going to win every time we call. We also have outs to improve as well. You can't just look the scariest outcomes without considering that our best outcomes happen at some % as well.

      JX has 5 outs to improve and we have 4 outs to improve, so his extra outs gives him about 3% extra equity. But does that mean we should fold just in case his weaker hands may improve?

  • #3
    The call-3-bet line is super weird, there are no logical bluffs available, he only needs like 7 combos of overplayed JX to be good, but that also means he's over-valuing JX like 47% of the time.....maybe we find a fold here? Idk super weird spot

    Comment


    • #4
      I'm never putting a chip in that pot but since you did I would never fold unless MP is a splashy fish that could also have some 2 pair combos like J6s J4s to go along with his sets, slow played over pairs and over valued JX. Highly unlikely he has any bluffs btw.

      Comment


      • #5
        I tanked on this one because it was super weird spot. The villain is a fish and I was 100% sure they did not have JJ. Since I block sets of 6's and 4's it was unlikely he had a set. But super strong to smooth call then shove for 200BB. In the end I was worried about a hand like J4s or J6s more than sets because you know they hate folding any suited cards at this level.

        Had the villain just raised after the initial bet, I would have felt more comfortable because I would have put them on a jack and re-raised. Since that is not what happened here and I am 100% sure the villain isn't bluffing, it became a very difficult call for all that money. If I was 100BB deep, I would have called without hesitation.

        I folded and the villain rolled KJ

        kkep I don't think the call is bad preflop with 64s, on the button against multiple opponents. Why do you?

        Thanks!

        Comment


        • kkep
          kkep commented
          Editing a comment
          I don't think it's worth it with such speculative hands that can't make the nuts in big multi-way pots.
          As you see even after smashing the flop with 2 pair you mucked after putting in 50BB.
          It's so hard to get those chips back in the high rake micros.
          I feel like you are probably over calling about 18% of the range where I would be about 5% maybe 6% tops. Again the rake is a bitch and we're kinda hoping to just smash a flop.
          Not really sure which is right but that's how I see it.

        • NJpokermike36
          NJpokermike36 commented
          Editing a comment
          Maybe you are right. This hand was just ridiculous.
          Last edited by NJpokermike36; 05-03-2021, 01:38 PM.

      • #6
        To be honest, one of the problems with this hand was I had ran really, really bad the last two days. I was down 6 buy-ins day one and ended down just short of three. Day two I was down 5 buy-ins and ended up down 1/2 a buy in. This hand happened close to the end of a long session. I knew I was quitting soon. I did not want to see all my hard work go down the drain in one hand.

        Not sure if that is the right way of looking at things or not, but that is how I felt in the moment.

        Thanks!
        Last edited by NJpokermike36; 05-03-2021, 01:38 PM.

        Comment


        • #7
          I agree with jjpregler. Micro-stakes players don’t bluff but they often overvalue top pair.

          Comment

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