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No point in using a HUD if you aren't going to pay attention to the stats.

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  • No point in using a HUD if you aren't going to pay attention to the stats.

    I saw the players HUD stats VPIP:22 PFR:9 3B:3. I should have dumped my over pair on the flop.

    PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    CO: $5.81
    BTN: $7.92
    Hero (SB): $38.15
    BB: $10.59

    Hero posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

    Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has 8:heart: 8:diamond:

    fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, BB raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.20

    Flop: ($3.00, 2 players) 3:club: 2:diamond: 4:diamond:
    Hero checks, BB bets $2.85, Hero calls $2.85

    Turn: ($8.70, 2 players) 2:club:
    Hero checks, BB bets $6.24 and is all-in, Hero calls $6.24

    River: ($21.18, 2 players) K:heart:

    Hero shows 8:heart: 8:diamond: (Two Pair, Eights and Twos)
    (Pre 18%, Flop 10%, Turn 5%)
    BB shows J:heart: J:diamond: (Two Pair, Jacks and Twos)
    (Pre 82%, Flop 90%, Turn 95%)
    BB wins $20.18
    Last edited by NJpokermike36; 05-03-2021, 10:41 AM.

  • #2
    How many hands.

    I am currently working on a theory and trying to study HUD stats, on how much value to give to lower sample sizes.

    For instance, right now I believe that with 100 hand sample, the only relelvant stats are Vpip, PFR and Aggression Factor or Aggression Frequency. (The last 2 are interchangeable, some players use AGG factor in their HUD while others use Agg Frequency.)

    At around 500 hands some other lower frequency statistics start to have meaning, 3bet, fold to 3bet, c-bet, fold to c-bet. In reality I think these stats at this point would be at near 100 opportunities for stats like this. For instance, if the player has a PFR of 20% at 500 hands they should be somewhere near 100 c-bet opportunities.

    Other even lower frequency stats may need as much as 1,000 hands to be reliable. This would be things like 4 bet stats, river stats, river efficiency and so on.

    If he was on the lower frequency, I would use the PFR number, which is about 50% below average. Then I would use his Agg Factor post flop. If that was lower, I may call the flop, but really have to consider a fold on the turn barrel. On the flop, I would ahve to consider that he may be c-betting his missed unpaired hands as well, like AK/AQ/AJ and maybe even KQ/AT. I think BvB those hands might find the 3 bet range of even a lower PFR player. (Not the lowest. If his PFR was 3, then that is a different animal.) So he may c-bet all of those hands which outnumber the overpairs he could have.

    When a low aggression player double barrels, it does not necessarily mean they are not bluffing, but the frequency of double barrel bluffs are lower than they should be and at that time, you can consider folding.
    Last edited by jjpregler; 05-02-2021, 07:58 AM.

    Comment


    • #3
      But what am I beating? 55,66,77 and a big Ax suited? I should have folded the turn.

      Thanks!

      Comment


      • jjpregler
        jjpregler commented
        Editing a comment
        That's basically what I said against a passive player. I was just explaining that with certain stat limitations, I focus on different numbers.

        Here he was 22/9, so without the 3bet stat, you can hedge toward his 3 bet range is not wide and probably be accurate. However, if he had a 22/17/3 line, with 100 hands, that is not enough information to assume his 3 bet frequency is actually 3%, since there is too low of a sample to tell, since his VPIP/PFR numbers are solid. In that case, I would lean towards assuming at least balance until I get enough hands to place value on the 3bet stats.

        Not disagreeing, just trying to add food for thought on reading HUDs with small sample sizes.
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