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Weak Top Pair with OESD in MP

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  • Weak Top Pair with OESD in MP

    In a 2/5 cash game, I held 6d5d on the HJ with about $1080 in stack facing a $10 UTG straddle and a limp from a calling station on the LJ. I limped behind. A nit on the CO and a LAG on the BTN also limped behind. An aggressive player in the SB raised to $40. BB folded. Straddler and LJ called. I called. CO folded. BTN called. We went to the flop 5 ways with $215 in the pot.

    Flop 5s4s3d, giving me a very weak top pair, an OESD, and a backdoor flush draw. SB and straddler checked. LJ bet $55. I called, since I had both a marginal made hand and a redraw to a much better hand. BTN called. SB and straddler folded. We went to the turn 3 ways with $380 in the pot.

    Turn 8h. LJ bet $140, giving me 3.7:1 pot odds. I thought I would likely be chopping at worst if a non-spade 2 or 7 came on the river, and possibly good if I made trips with another 5, so 8 outs. I did not think I would likely be good hitting a 6 for 2-pair since there would be 4 to a straight on the board. I called. BTN raised to $375. LJ hesitated and then called. I needed to call $235 with $1,270 already in the pot, so better than 5:1 pot odds. I thought the LJ would have re-raised here with 76, but I could see him having a set, in which case he would have a boat if I hit trip 5’s on the river. I also thought the BTN would have raised the wet flop with any 2-pair or better, so I thought he might have a spade draw. I called, since I still figured I had at least 6 outs. I planned to check the river to him if I hit the straight, to let him bluff and represent it for some potential implied odds.

    River Jh. Checked around. LJ mucked. BTN showed Js7s, so had a gutshot and flush draw, but rivered an overcard he likely did not expect to be good.
    Last edited by mriebel; 05-01-2021, 08:53 AM.

  • #2
    This is a very marginal spot with only 6 outs and not getting the right pot odds. Calling on the turn requires you to get implied odds and I am not sure they are there. If you think only 6 outs may be good, you are an 8 to 1 dog. Are you going to get the other 4.3 odds in implied odds + a little extra for taking a risk if you make your hand? Probably not. I probably would folded to the bet on the turn because the button was still behind me. If the button raises, which he did, it is a killer.

    If I had position and I was heads up, I would be more likely to call the turn bet.

    Thanks!

    Comment


    • mriebel
      mriebel commented
      Editing a comment
      Having 6 outs with 46 unseen cards requires 40/6 or 6.7:1 pot odds. I gave myself 8 outs when facing the first bet on the turn, which requires 38/8 or 4.75:1 pot odds, as I thought I would also be good if I rivered trip 5’s.

    • NJpokermike36
      NJpokermike36 commented
      Editing a comment
      Later on in your post you said you gave yourself only 6 outs. I always look at the worse case scenario, especially when I am against multiple opponents and have a very wet board.

      You may be a little under 8 to 1 do, but you are over 7 with 6 outs. You are about 13% to hit your hand on the river.

      Thanks!

    • mriebel
      mriebel commented
      Editing a comment
      I gave myself 8 outs when calling the Hijack’s bet, 6 when calling the button’s raise.
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