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Is this river a Fold? It feels like it is to me

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  • Is this river a Fold? It feels like it is to me

    When I get raised on the flop, it really feels like two pair given the player. I mean he would have raised preflop with a big queen on the button, no? Why would he check the turn if he didn't fill up? The villain's stats are VPIP: 39 PFR:17

    PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players

    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    CO: $12.81
    BTN: $8.97
    SB: $11.13
    BB: $7.90
    Hero (UTG): $16.55

    SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

    Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has J:heart: K:diamond:

    Hero raises to $0.30, CO calls $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, fold, fold

    Flop: ($1.05, 3 players) Q:diamond: 6:diamond: T:heart:
    Hero bets $0.60, fold, BTN raises to $1.70, Hero calls $1.10

    Turn: ($4.45, 2 players) Q:heart:
    Hero checks, BTN checks

    River: ($4.45, 2 players) 9:spade:
    Hero bets $2.12, BTN raises to $6.97 and is all-in, Hero ????

  • #2
    I don't think we can fold here. He can definitely have some QX, especially since he's 39/17 that's super loose passive he calling a ton more than he should pre. Mix QX with the fact that he can have some crazy bluffs, and he can only have at most like 15 combos that beat us, we would need a veryyyy strong read to fold here


    • #3
      No, I wouldn't fold there. I feel you still beat a portion of value hands he may bet there. He could be betting QX and he has a couple 2p hands he might go nuts with.


      • #4
        I would have either bet less on the river like 1.10 with the intention of folding to an all-in raise or check called which makes it easier for him to find more bluffs.
        You can have plenty of Q which makes a raise bluff dicey and they just don't bluff enough not mention you heavily block his logical bluffing range with the KdJx.

        Passive players are typically happy to call down with marginal stuff so when they start to pile chips in it's most often bad news. I usually
        let them have it because if they stick around I'll get plenty of chances to take them to value town.


        • #5
          I definitely think I should have checked, but I didn't. I felt very confident in my read that he had Q10. I tanked and then called. He had Q10 for the full house.



          • Blind.Defense
            Blind.Defense commented
            Editing a comment
            I'm still learning so I wanted to ask you what made you think Q-10 for sure?

            My thoughts on this one are:
            Since hero has K-J, we're blocking KQ and QJ
            AQ would likely have 3-bet preflop?

            Hands I think would have flat called preflop from the button that we're not blocking: Q-10, maybe Q-9, maybe pocket 6s?

            Q-10 or 6-6 make sense with the flop raise. The turn check is weird from the villain.

            Honestly I would have played it the same as you and called it off on the river, but maybe we could find a fold here after really looking at it. I don't think I would have thought about it as quickly while in the middle of a hand though. I gotta practice that.

          • NJpokermike36
            NJpokermike36 commented
            Editing a comment
            I played with this opponent a lot. He hasn't check raised on the turn with a draw in the past. He also would had raised preflop with a bigger queen. That was really the only hand that came to mind because I think he would have check raised the flop with 66

        • #6
          I would have put him on QT as well. I cannot see him checking back the turn with a non-boat Q, since there are two flush draws and several straight draws out there. The only thing I could see him shoving that I beat is a busted Diamond draw. He may bet TT or 66 since those boats are at a risk of counterfeit.